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The Annual Guess Start of The Rainy Season


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And I got dumped on in Riberas. Little micro climates all around the lake.

It looks like Agatha will re form in the Gulf of Mexico and bring rain to southern Florida. Last year the same thing happened with a hurricane from the opposite direction. Started in the Atlantic and jumped to the Pacific. That was an anomaly but suggests that it may soon become the norm. These hurricanes are getting to be very powerful...

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/tropical-depression-could-form-soon-104156802.html

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Tell ya what.  This thread was started by me and it is about guessing the start of the local rainy season.  Let's keep it at that so I deleted all the OT posts including my own.

Carry on.

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Looking at the satellite view this afternoon we do seem to have a weak pattern like the normal rainy season one.  However the polar jet is still pretty far south and a wave in building which will probably interrupt the flow of moisture for a few days.

We got about an inch of rain at my place in SE Ajijic.  Nice!

 

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Knowing that Weather Underground is often wrong, they called the storm last night and from a 20% chance of rain predicted this morning, they now post this:

image.png.7da88d1f3f399d2826a12c96dd73172d.png

and this

image.png.dfdf8aefc45ff301093d55df9141415e.png

We moved to Ajijic in 2004 when cows and horses were grazing on dry land a quarter mile from shore. Either that year or the next the first rain came on May 31 which began the lake's recovery and ultimately the overflow and flood which resulted in the new malecon.

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Guad news on channel 4 TV plus Informador news on line both have stated "this is an anomaly"   yes, there will be intermittent rain for a few days   but the actual rainy season is not expected to begin (albeit earlier than some years) before about June 15 - 20

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1 hour ago, Natasha said:

Guad news on channel 4 TV plus Informador news on line both have stated "this is an anomaly"   yes, there will be intermittent rain for a few days   but the actual rainy season is not expected to begin (albeit earlier than some years) before about June 15 - 20

As I've chosen the 17th, I couldn’t agree more! 

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14 hours ago, tjt said:

I choose June 19th!

You have been added.

Monsoon trough has shifted north much closer to us, important precursor to rain.  Strong lower/mid level moisture and cloud easterly flow this morning.  

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I hope the rains hurry since it is now HOT AND HUMID and Ihave a long walk up the goat path to gete to my abode and it is bad enough in the heat but add HUMDITY?   Even the goats are panting, the roosters stop crowing.and the dogs just lay there as I walk by.   .  Plus, where are the taxis when you need one?  

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20 minutes ago, dottiejane said:

I hope the rains hurry since it is now HOT AND HUMID and Ihave a long walk up the goat path to gete to my abode and it is bad enough in the heat but add HUMDITY?   Even the goats are panting, the roosters stop crowing.and the dogs just lay there as I walk by.   .  Plus, where are the taxis when you need one?  

How quickly the complaining begins.

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She arrived in the heat and hasn't experienced the rest of the year yet. Whatever you do, dottiejane, don't move to either coast. The best is yet to come!

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yes I know - I was here in January for three weeks from dark, cold, rainy Portland and thought i had died and gone to heaven - this is just a reminder that there is a HELL - everywhere it seems - even on a goat path - who knew- 

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 I was here in January and loved it - and yes I knew May was the hottest month and came anyway - Given that the topic was when the rainy season would begin, I just posted what I thought was a humerous wish that it would start soon - maybe it is too early in the a.m. for a bit of humor - I have survived a whole raft of climates - am sure I will this one as well.  

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10 hours ago, RickS said:

MC the meteorologist....

Well, yes, as a hobby for 60 years.  Started out getting the detailed U.S. maps in the mail long before there was the internet.

Your hobby was, let me guess, snark artist?  :D 

Tropical storm in the gulf has temporarily interrupted the Monsoon Trough and dried things up a bit plus the upper winds are still pretty strong westerly.  

 

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30 minutes ago, Mexicoafterlife said:

After living in se Texas and Alabama the hot season here is a vacation. Never lived in a place with the wonderful year around weather this place has. It's heaven 

And I lived in TX, the east, the midwest and finally New Mexico.  The climate here is so much better than any of these there simply is no comparison.

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10 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

Big storm and floods in Guadalajara last night.  You could see the tops of the clouds boiling up over the mountains.

Trees down and some damage.

Glad we missed that one.

Lol well we have to drive into guadalajara this morning for a medical appointment. Wish me luck.

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Another nice rain but the clear pattern of the rainy season has not established itself.  The monsoon trough has retreated southward and we are now on the west side of the dry line/extended trough.  That tends to move eastward from the morning into the afternoon and retreat westward in the evening.

Probably a few drier days coming up until the monsoon trough shifts northward again and the tropical waves along it come close enough to bring more rain.

See surface map attached.

 

Screenshot (103).png

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