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MX peso tanking


lakeside7
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On the Yahoo financial page, instead of showing about 20.4 pesos per  US dollar,  this morning it was showing 21.32 pesos per dollar.

EDIT: I just looked again and it has dropped a bit down to 21.29  .

That's less than a peso increase as of now, but every little bit helps.

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https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/12/28/mexico-plans-to-end-oil-exports-in-2023-to-reach-self-sufficiency

Bloomberg:

"Mexico plans to end crude oil exports in 2023 as part of a strategy by the nationalist government of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to reach self-sufficiency in the domestic fuels market.

Petroleos Mexicanos, the Mexican state-owned producer known as Pemex, will reduce crude oil exports to 435,000 barrels a day in 2022 before phasing out sales to clients abroad the following year, Chief Executive Officer Octavio Romero said during a press conference in Mexico City on Tuesday.

The move is part of a drive by Lopez Obrador to expand Mexico’s domestic production of fuels instead of sending its oil abroad while it imports costly refined products, like gasoline and diesel. Mexico currently buys the bulk of the fuels it consumes from U.S. refineries.
If fulfilled, Pemex’s pledge will mark the withdrawal from the international oil market by one of its most prominent players of the past decades. At its peak in 2004, Pemex exported almost 1.9 million barrels a day to refineries from the Japan to India, and was a participant in meetings by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as observer.


Last month, the Mexican company sold abroad slightly more than one million daily barrels, according to Pemex data.

The export reduction will come as Pemex increases its domestic crude processing, which will reach 1.51 million barrels a day in 2022 and 2 million daily barrels in 2023, Romero said. The Mexican driller will plow all of its production into its six refineries, including a facility under construction in the southeastern state of Tabasco and another one being bought near Houston, Texas. This plant is considered part of Mexico’s refining system even if located across the U.S. border."

The heavy Gulf crude oil Mexico has has to be mixed with imported light crude to be refined into gasoline and diesel.

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16 minutes ago, Jreboll said:

You’re quoting an article from 3 months ago. Biden just announced they’ll stop importing Russian oil so that puts a monkey wrench in all previous plans.

US only imports 3 percent Russian oil. 

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19 hours ago, Jreboll said:

You’re quoting an article from 3 months ago. Biden just announced they’ll stop importing Russian oil so that puts a monkey wrench in all previous plans.

There are no changes in plans regarding Pemex stopping foreign sales. 

AMLO has taken a neutral stance in the current conflict. Mexico has not joined any embargos or placed any sanctions.

AMLO has decided that Mexico must refine it's own gasoline and is doing everything possible to get there. Meanwhile the Pemex lost more money in the refineries and gave up the profitable sale of petroleum abroad. The construction cost of the new Dos Bocas refinery is 108% over budget so far. The supreme court ruled that the 3 projects of AMLO (airport, train maya, refinery) are not "national security" and now the huge cost over runs are public.

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21 hours ago, johanson said:

On the Yahoo financial page, instead of showing about 20.4 pesos per  US dollar,  this morning it was showing 21.32 pesos per dollar.

EDIT: I just looked again and it has dropped a bit down to 21.29  .

That's less than a peso increase as of now, but every little bit helps.

It sounds like you are living from paycheck to paycheck 😉

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The title of this topic is MX peso tanking. 

Well not any more. I just checked. And the peso has dropped back to 20.95 pesos per dollar, this Wednesday morning. That's still a little better than what it was, but not much.

I have no idea where the value of the peso is going. But it doesn't seem to be in a hurry for a rapid change :) as had been suggested by the press.

 

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3 hours ago, RickS said:

Is it truly 108% over budget or 8%?

Somewhere between the former and the latter.  Pemex is so rife with corruption and ineptitude it is lucky if it doesn't get worse than that.  And probably very unlikely.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-21/mexico-s-crown-jewel-oil-refinery-is-3-6-billion-over-budget

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On 3/8/2022 at 12:35 PM, johanson said:

On the Yahoo financial page, instead of showing about 20.4 pesos per  US dollar,  this morning it was showing 21.32 pesos per dollar.

EDIT: I just looked again and it has dropped a bit down to 21.29  .

That's less than a peso increase as of now, but every little bit helps.

Yes good for us "gringos" but bad bad news for the locals , plus the on going price increase for "everything" we are all exposed to...But I guess it is a small sacrifice to trying to stop a tank with a rife...when you go to bed to night pray for a miracle to happen

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23 hours ago, RickS said:

Is it truly 108% over budget or 8%?

108%  YES DOUBLE.  Figures were hidden until recently. Early over runs were reported on all of AMLO's dream projects but for months after he declared them "national security" nothing was public. But now the Supreme Court ruled not so and the figures are becoming known.

It is now being reported that the halting of construction of the Mexico City airport and contracts that had to be paid off, and the construction of the AMLO's small dream airport 40 minutes away at the military base has now cost more than it would have to finish the big one. Plus using the military for construction lets a lot of the labor costs to still be hidden.

https://www.oilandgasmagazine.com.mx/aumentan-108-el-gasto-en-construccion-de-dos-bocas/

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On a very short term basis, the US/Mex exchange rate closely follows the US stockmarket. Stocks up, peso up and visa versa. On a longer term basis, there must be something larger going on with the peso. Since the US market low in March 2000 and the peso making a low at close to 23, the US market has gone up a lot and the peso not so much. The peso should be more like 17 or 18 but here it is near 21. 

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15 hours ago, tomgates said:

On a very short term basis, the US/Mex exchange rate closely follows the US stockmarket. Stocks up, peso up and visa versa. On a longer term basis, there must be something larger going on with the peso. Since the US market low in March 2000 and the peso making a low at close to 23, the US market has gone up a lot and the peso not so much. The peso should be more like 17 or 18 but here it is near 21. 

I like twenty-one---More Pesos to the dollar--

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14 hours ago, bobby brown said:

I like twenty-one---More Pesos to the dollar--

Gee, Bobby, I thought you were Mexican, as you keep claiming. I wouldn't think that the US dollar would be anything pertinent to your life.

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On 3/16/2022 at 1:10 PM, mudgirl said:

Gee, Bobby, I thought you were Mexican, as you keep claiming. I wouldn't think that the US dollar would be anything pertinent to your life.

Very pertinent; as a large portion of my investments originate in the states--as in Mexico--I watch the exchange rate as to get the best conversion rate for my dollar--

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On 3/16/2022 at 1:10 PM, mudgirl said:

Gee, Bobby, I thought you were Mexican, as you keep claiming. I wouldn't think that the US dollar would be anything pertinent to your life.

Its income--a nest egg; I worked hard for; for when I retire-Immigrating to Mejico--I also have income in Mexico-called diversafying my exposer --Australia;  Canada; etc. maybe Mexico too; are starting to get ready to confiscate bank accounts if WW111 gets hot--If that happens; then all this conversation is mute.

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1 hour ago, bobby brown said:

Its income--a nest egg; I worked hard for; for when I retire-Immigrating to Mejico--I also have income in Mexico-called diversafying my exposer --Australia;  Canada; etc. maybe Mexico too; are starting to get ready to confiscate bank accounts if WW111 gets hot--If that happens; then all this conversation is mute.

Wow! You must be a special highly respected mover and shaker to be privi to what the gummints of Australia,Canada; etc. maybe Mexico have planned. DOUBLE SNORK!

 

pedro kertesz

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30 minutes ago, happyjillin said:

Wow! You must be a special highly respected mover and shaker to be privi to what the gummints of Australia,Canada; etc. maybe Mexico have planned. DOUBLE SNORK!

 

pedro kertesz

Just got my ear on the railroad tracks listening for what's coming-- or doing due diligence and keeping myself informed--"DOUBLE SNORK"  back at ya !!

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On 3/8/2022 at 11:43 AM, AlanMexicali said:

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/12/28/mexico-plans-to-end-oil-exports-in-2023-to-reach-self-sufficiency

Bloomberg:

"Mexico plans to end crude oil exports in 2023 as part of a strategy by the nationalist government of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to reach self-sufficiency in the domestic fuels market.

Petroleos Mexicanos, the Mexican state-owned producer known as Pemex, will reduce crude oil exports to 435,000 barrels a day in 2022 before phasing out sales to clients abroad the following year, Chief Executive Officer Octavio Romero said during a press conference in Mexico City on Tuesday.

The move is part of a drive by Lopez Obrador to expand Mexico’s domestic production of fuels instead of sending its oil abroad while it imports costly refined products, like gasoline and diesel. Mexico currently buys the bulk of the fuels it consumes from U.S. refineries.
If fulfilled, Pemex’s pledge will mark the withdrawal from the international oil market by one of its most prominent players of the past decades. At its peak in 2004, Pemex exported almost 1.9 million barrels a day to refineries from the Japan to India, and was a participant in meetings by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as observer.


Last month, the Mexican company sold abroad slightly more than one million daily barrels, according to Pemex data.

The export reduction will come as Pemex increases its domestic crude processing, which will reach 1.51 million barrels a day in 2022 and 2 million daily barrels in 2023, Romero said. The Mexican driller will plow all of its production into its six refineries, including a facility under construction in the southeastern state of Tabasco and another one being bought near Houston, Texas. This plant is considered part of Mexico’s refining system even if located across the U.S. border."

The heavy Gulf crude oil Mexico has has to be mixed with imported light crude to be refined into gasoline and diesel.

I just read a news article about Dos Bocas. It will probably be completed in the 8 to 9 years the Worldwide companies building refineries estimated. It will probably cost 16 to 18 billion USDs these companies estimated. But it will be the one refinery that doesn't need light crude oil to mix with Mexico's heavy crude like all the other refineries in Mexico do.

Quote: "From the little that is known, direct assignments abound, and billions of pesos with no clear destination. The same is happening in Dos Bocas, where we have already gone from 8 billion to 12 billion dollars in the expected cost, but very likely we will reach 16 billion. On the other hand, it is already clear that it will not operate during this six-year term, but during the next one, according to public information. But that remains to be seen, because it is designed for heavy crude, which by then we may not have enough of.

In fact, during February, the production of heavy crude oil was 683 thousand barrels per day, 10 percent less than a year ago, 200 thousand barrels less than two years ago, 350 thousand less than in 2019. At that rate, in three years all production would have to go to Dos Bocas, leaving the rest of the National Refining System without inputs. Maybe it won't matter by then, because the old refineries don't work very well anymore, so to speak. By the way, in February Pemex's production was the lowest since the 1970s, with the sole exception of July 2020, which was practically the same as last month."

https://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/opinion/macario-schettino/2022/03/25/lo-perdido/?outputType=amp

 

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On 3/21/2022 at 2:56 PM, happyjillin said:

Wow! You must be a special highly respected mover and shaker to be privi to what the gummints of Australia,Canada; etc. maybe Mexico have planned. DOUBLE SNORK!

 

pedro kertesz

Just keeping an eye on the enemy of freedom---HA

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