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Peso Rate Alert


utilitus
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1 hour ago, Mainecoons said:

Expectation of rising interest rates.

 

Plus coordinated release of several national 'strategic petroleum reserves' (50mbl for the US just announced), plus thematic problems of EM banking as the USD gains value into next year (especially vs LatAm, except Brazil, according to TD Bank analyst just on Bloomberg).  Turkey (which ironically imports all its' energy) experienced a 13% exchange rate crash this morning due to moronic political leadership, maybe additionally fouling the EM forex pond, just thematically.

There is great controversy as to the nature of Fed rates - it will almost certainly not track realized inflation due to the unpayable scale of the modes of US debt.  'Financial repression' is the future of the USD, along with the devaluation that should entail, though other countries may try to competitively match it.  

By the way, recently stumbled on statistics indicating that Mexico's oil reserves are probably the shortest-lived among recognized producers.  What then - maquiladoras replacing Chinese solar hardware production - or will the US and others go aggressively robotic?  

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When discussing the Mexican peso values, one should remember that back in 1994 (while we were living in San Miguel de Allende) Mexico created the "New Peso" which is now just the" peso."  When I was living here in 1972 the exchange rate was 12 pesos to the dollar.  It had gone up to 3,000 pesos the dollar in 1994.  So the government decided to just drop off the three zeros and it became 3 pesos to the dollar.  So basically since 1972 until now it would have dropped from 12 to one to 21,000 to one.  Now that is a big drop in fifty years.  Keep that in mind if you keep a lot of money in pesos accounts.  Of course, think what you could buy in the US fifty years ago...like a house for 25,000 dollars,  inflation has greatly eaten away at the dollar's real value as well.  At our "official" inflation rate of about 3%, that 25,000 should be 111,000 but that house would now cost you 400,000 probably.  Same would apply to healthcare, college tuition, fuel costs, property taxes, food, etc.  Remember when a Motel 6 meant you could get a room for 6 bucks?  All governments tell you what they want you to hear so you don't panic...just stay a little on edge and keep shopping.

Mostly true in all of Latin America.  In Peru (where I lived in 1974) there was the "sol" which became so devalued they created the "Inti" which became so devalued they created the "nuevo sol" which is now just the sol.  Bad government and bad economic policy there as well.

Alan

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There’s always pundits like Utilitus who try to give reasons why markets behave the way they do but the reality is more like what Barrower describes.  Markets are manipulated by governments and major financial institutions and they are the ones who benefit from all this.  The idea that we live in a free market capitalistic world is a myth.  The recent development of limitless money printing just goes to show that.

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1 hour ago, happyjillin said:

16.63 on XE this am per canbuck.

To me that rate/ spread always seems crazy, and I am amazed that so many Canada's can afford the 25/30% premium they have spend when buy or renting property at Lakeside.. What wrong with the CAD economy that justify the wide spread between the US $?

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RE: "try to give reasons why markets behave the way they do "

There are different kinds of 'causation'. 'Financial repression' is government manipulation at its' extreme - but it goes way beyond real-time market manipulation, per se.  And as Keynes noted in his famous 'beauty contest' metaphor, sophisticated market players, human, institutional and/or AI, position themselves relative to the other market players, not some absolute of value. (The value of money in capitalism is its' potential for making more money.) 

Anything, including mistaken rumors, can and do move forex markets almost instantaneously.  I observed yesterdays and this mornings' shenanigans firsthand, in real time, as an abstracted stimulus-response model, and use the forex markets as a currency hedge just because such financialized hair-trigger mechanisms as modern markets are not predictable, rational, or authentic.  Cynicism is an absolutely appropriate overall attitude (especially towards late 'capitalism'), but it doesn't provide granular explanations for a wide and important spectrum of phenomena which we are condemned to experience, unless you want to nail 'cynicism' it like a little sign to the helical cross of 'selfish genes'.  

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14 minutes ago, lakeside7 said:

To me that rate/ spread always seems crazy, and I am amazed that so many Canada's can afford the 25/30% premium they have spend when buy or renting property at Lakeside.. What wrong with the CAD economy that justify the wide spread between the US $?

As a Canadian I do extremely well here,gracias.

mariachi banjer player.JPG

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1 hour ago, lakeside7 said:

To me that rate/ spread always seems crazy, and I am amazed that so many Canada's can afford the 25/30% premium they have spend when buy or renting property at Lakeside.. What wrong with the CAD economy that justify the wide spread between the US $?

The lack of understanding of global currencies that different countries and regions have and use, is highly evident in your comment and the phrasing of your question.          

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21 minutes ago, virgo lady said:

The lack of understanding of global currencies that different countries and regions have and use, is highly evident in your comment and the phrasing of your question.          

Oh Dear....Perhaps you can arrange a private or public seminar and educate me/us, on the subject, for which I appear to be sadly lacking and have a failing grade.

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1 hour ago, lakeside7 said:

What wrong with the CAD economy that justify the wide spread between the US $?

What an absurd comment. What is "wrong" with the Mexican economy? The Indian economy? The Brazilian economy? Are you aware that one Euro isn't equal to one US dollar? That one Aussie dollar is not equal to one US dollar?  That one rupee isn't equal to one US dollar?

Why make a comment when you obviously have zero understanding of exchange rates and world economics?

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1 hour ago, mudgirl said:

What an absurd comment. What is "wrong" with the Mexican economy? The Indian economy? The Brazilian economy? Are you aware that one Euro isn't equal to one US dollar? That one Aussie dollar is not equal to one US dollar?  That one rupee isn't equal to one US dollar?

Why make a comment when you obviously have zero understanding of exchange rates and world economics?

Perhaps more to the point my " zero understanding/appreciation" for the  sensitivity of the Canucks 

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In a past career I was paid quite well for the research disciplines I was taught and then used. Through these techniques I used to study, over a period of time ,various locations where there was no driven snow. This is the place in the country I chose and just one of the benefits I determined,was that our living costs, after the purchase of our house, would be 1/4 to 1/3 of what it would cost to remain in Canada where more than likely both of us would have to continue to work. Some of your posts suggest that you do not and have not learned nor use such disciplines,lakeside7-eh!

The foto was taken in April

 

pedro kertesz

house sold apr 2006.jpg

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1 hour ago, lakeside7 said:

Perhaps more to the point my " zero understanding/appreciation" for the  sensitivity of the Canucks 

If there were a bunch of Aussies here and you asked what is wrong with their economy that their dollar isn't equivalent to the US dollar, or a bunch of Europeans and you asked what's wrong with the European economy that a Euro isn't equal to a US dollar, I daresay you would have received similar responses.  

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2 hours ago, lakeside7 said:

Perhaps more to the point my " zero understanding/appreciation" for the  sensitivity of the Canucks 

You are embarrassing to the rest of us. Mudgirl makes a good point, plus the Aussies  have a higher quality of living as well. Hopefully you can understand this:

Best Countries to Live in the World | U.S. News Best Countries (usnews.com)

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