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Guess Start of Rainy Season


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11 hours ago, alex45920 said:

And there was also this bit of nonsense that denied the validity of tropical (monsoonal) moisture coming from the south. So the storm that's expected here tonight doesn't count either.

The rainy season has definitely not started yet.  As posted above " in order to be deemed a real start, the rain has to fall three times in a week, be clearly generated by the easterlies the shift of which denoted the beginning of our season and have to add up to 3.8 cm (1.5 inches) in the first 7 day week. We got nowhere near that amount pf rain so far.

1/2 inch of rain last night from the tropical storm off the west coast.

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On 6/14/2021 at 6:21 AM, Mainecoons said:

Based on pattern shift and repeat rain I'd conclude the season started on June 13.  

Yay or nay?

Nay

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On 6/13/2021 at 8:09 PM, virgo lady said:

So...."are we there yet"?    😉

image.thumb.png.488ff82fc5a47d8f09397bc1e5967e8f.png

 

No

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Get set for some heavy rain today.

Very difficult to call the start since the pattern was definitely established in that satellite shot but then it weakened for several days and this tropical storm is definitely not following the usual path of being driven westward by the easterlies at this time of year.

I'm sticking with the 13th.

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5 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

Get set for some heavy rain today.

Very difficult to call the start since the pattern was definitely established in that satellite shot but then it weakened for several days and this tropical storm is definitely not following the usual path of being driven westward by the easterlies at this time of year.

I'm sticking with the 13th.

13th of July ? (2021). ☺️

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According to the rules it is too early to say if this is the start of the rainy season. We have to wait until the tropical storm passes then see what happens next. 2 inches so far today here in Joco

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The Arizona monsoon season start was traditionally determined by a lookback at an AVERAGE dew point of 55 degrees or more for THREE days in a row.  

I was a "Weather Watcher" for KOLD Channel 13 in Tucson between 2003 and 2014 and the AZ meteorology class I took covered this topic in detail.   A number of years ago the NWS threw in the towel trying to explain this "look-back" method as did the TV weather meteorologists.  Now in AZ, they just say the monsoon season begins June 15th (though it's been dry as a bone this year since June 15th with record setting high temps). 

Old timers still follow the 3 day look-back at the dew points and even the local TV meteorologists continue to discuss it.  

I do not know if that 55+ degree dew point for 3 consecutive days would be accurate here or not.  Just thought I'd mention this formerly official NWS method of determining the start of a rainy season.   

 

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14 minutes ago, Linapolo said:

The Informador *Guadalajara paper, says the official start of the rainy season was May 15th

La temporada de lluvias y ciclones tropicales 2021 comenzó oficialmente el pasado 15 de mayo y se estima que finalice en noviembre.

https://www.informador.mx

Guadalajara has a very different climate than the Chapala basin's micro climate caused by the mountains surrounding 80% of the lake and the effect of the lake as a thermal mass.  

In GDL afternoon downpours are very common, where lakeside more common at night. Temperatures are different as well.

All you need to do is watch local news videos of GDL streets flooded, while Chapala has a sunny rainfree day, to see the difference.

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That is a reference to the annual Hurricane Season, which have set dates established by the NHC.  The dates never vary no matter the arrival of first or last hurricane.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

Atlantic & Eastern Pacific Climatology

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, and the Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th to November 30th. The Atlantic basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The Eastern Pacific basin extends to 140°W.

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6 minutes ago, Linapolo said:

If you read it carefully, it says temporada de lluvia, which is season of rains.

No.... if you read it carefully it says season of rains and tropical cyclones which ends in November. .  That is May 15 every year to November every year regardless of actual rain. It is a set date.

Maincoons' contest was based on the actual beginnings of a rainy season in the Chapala area as defined on the first post. 

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1 hour ago, Taaffe said:

No, I withdrew my comment when I was corrected, that’s all.  Enjoy the cool, wet weather.

Why do you find it necessary to be linapolo and taafe on here senor troll? Do you have any other anonimouse handles and do you talk to each other-SNORK!

pedro kertesz

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1 hour ago, happyjillin said:

Why do you find it necessary to be linapolo and taafe on here senor troll? Do you have any other anonimouse handles and do you talk to each other-SNORK!

pedro kertesz

I forgot my password.  Anything else I can answer for you?

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On 6/19/2021 at 10:33 AM, traderspoc said:

whoever guessed june 19 wins

 

I agree

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