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Guess Start of Rainy Season


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6 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

Going to go out on a limb here.  I think the rainy season will start tonight or Sunday.  Definite pattern shift now and strong flow of mid level moisture from the NE.

 

If it's tomorrow I WIN!!! Where can I pick up my check???

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6 minutes ago, gringohombre said:

If it's tomorrow I WIN!!! Where can I pick up my check???

On your computer

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On 5/15/2021 at 3:12 PM, gringohombre said:

The first day of the Fiesta Saint Anthony of San Antonio Tlayacapan...

 

On 6/12/2021 at 2:41 PM, gringohombre said:

If it's tomorrow I WIN!!! Where can I pick up my check???

FYI, You picked the first day of the Fiesta....that was June 4th.  June 13rh is the final day of his Fiesta.  

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On 6/13/2021 at 8:46 PM, Mainecoons said:

I think so but it is a bit of a strange start.

It is a strange start. 8/10th of an inch in Joco last night. I don't think the rainy season has started yet.

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1 hour ago, Bisbee Gal said:

 

FYI, You picked the first day of the Fiesta....that was June 4th.  June 13rh is the final day of his Fiesta.  

Yes but the date he gave was June 13.  He got the start date of the fiesta confused but we go by the date specified in the post here.  

It is amazing how often the rainy season starts within a day or so of the end of that fiesta.  

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22 minutes ago, NLU said:

I don't find that the rainy season has started historically on June 13 (or a day or so in either direction) in the least bit amazing.

I find it factual!

Weather is rarely that predictable or consistent.

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We need a new thread as the rainy season has not started yet.

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57 minutes ago, luvsdawgs said:

What part of it hasn't arrived yet do you not understand? A few drops do not a rainy season make.

It was the usual deluge on June 13 thanks to a certain fiesta surrounding that date-capisce. Find something useful to do or disagree with,or would that be too difficult for you?-SNORK!

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7 hours ago, happyjillin said:

It was the usual deluge on June 13 thanks to a certain fiesta surrounding that date-capisce. Find something useful to do or disagree with,or would that be too difficult for you?-SNORK!

 I was wrong, sorry. Rainy season has officially started. According to the officials, it started on June 14th this year. It never starts on the same date each year, there is nobody pulling an on switch.

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For this contest the rules were 

In order to be deemed a real start, the rain has to fall three times in a week, be clearly generated by the easterlies the shift of which denoted the beginning of our season and have to add up to 3.8 cm (1.5 inches) in the first 7 day week.  The date of the first rain in the qualifying trio is the winner.

Later it was decided that   https://www.ajijicweather.com/index.htm  would be the measurement site. 

Hasn't happened yet  as of today June 18

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1 hour ago, Mostlylost said:

For this contest the rules were 

In order to be deemed a real start, the rain has to fall three times in a week, be clearly generated by the easterlies the shift of which denoted the beginning of our season and have to add up to 3.8 cm (1.5 inches) in the first 7 day week.  The date of the first rain in the qualifying trio is the winner.

Later it was decided that   https://www.ajijicweather.com/index.htm  would be the measurement site. 

Hasn't happened yet  as of today June 18

I agree.

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On 6/5/2021 at 9:13 PM, Mainecoons said:

Sorry but that is not correct.  If it were the tropical storms wouldn't move from east to west/northwest.  Our rainy season comes from the SE, driven by the Azores High.

The Monsoon Trough flows from east to west, see below, and as the rain picks up tropical waves track along it from southeast to northwest and it shifts more to the north bringing the rain inland.  That pattern is beginning now as can be seen from this screenshot from the Mexico 3 Day.

Towards the end of the rainy season, usually in September, the tropical storms start tracking more to the north and northwest, some curving around to hit the coast as far north as Cabo.

No, the rainy season has not started.  We are in a drying trend now as the residual moisture from two tropical depressions dissipates.  But it is coming soon as the screen shot illustrates.

 

Screenshot (55).png

And there was also this bit of nonsense that denied the validity of tropical (monsoonal) moisture coming from the south. So the storm that's expected here tonight doesn't count either.

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