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Guess Start of Rainy Season


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Yes folks, once again that great opportunity to portray that wild guess as meteorological genius should your wild guess be the right one.

And win the grand prize which is....nothing other than bragging rights.

Rainfall is as measured somewhere locally.  As the Riberas weather station is gone we'll need to figure out a new measurement.  Anyone local with a reliable rain gage should suffice.

In order to be deemed a real start, the rain has to fall three times in a week, be clearly generated by the easterlies the shift of which denoted the beginning of our season and have to add up to 3.8 cm (1.5 inches) in the first 7 day week.  The date of the first rain in the qualifying trio is the winner.

I'll start with my usual, usually futile attempt to pick a date based on observation of tropical and sub tropical jet streams.  Reply to this post with your guess and I'll copy it into the list.

Note it is OK to pick a date that has already been picked.  There is no limit on the number of folks who can be declared meteorological genius here.

May 31  Rick

June 1   Mainecoons

June 2  Honeybee

June 7  Bisbee

June 8   Whipstock

June 11 Artsnob

June 12  GoSolar, traderspoc

June 13 Gringohombre, Cedros (at PM)

June 14  Mostly Lost, dichosalocura, FlyFree, gogirl

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2 minutes ago, Bisbee Gal said:

June 7

Not volunteering you, but as you have a quality rain gauge (and if MC, and others are fine with it); do you mind posting your local results as the Official numbers?

 

PS, 

You are off by one day.🤣

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2 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

Rainfall is as measured somewhere locally.  As the Riberas weather station is gone we'll need to figure out a new measurement.  Anyone local with a reliable rain gage should suffice.

 

1 hour ago, Whipstock said:

Not volunteering you, but as you have a quality rain gauge (and if MC, and others are fine with it); do you mind posting your local results as the Official numbers?

I'm confused...what's wrong with using the rain gauge from https://www.ajijicweather.com/index.htm  The station is in Rancho de Oro, as far as I know and has been for several years.  

I'd be happy to post mine, IF we're in Ajijic.  We have tentative travel plans in early to mid-June.  

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5 minutes ago, Bisbee Gal said:

 

I'm confused...what's wrong with using the rain gauge from https://www.ajijicweather.com/index.htm  The station is in Rancho de Oro, as far as I know and has been for several years.  

I'd be happy to post mine, IF we're in Ajijic.  We have tentative travel plans in early to mid-June.  

My apologies, I had been told that that site was no longer being updated.

 

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22 minutes ago, Bisbee Gal said:

 

I'm confused...what's wrong with using the rain gauge from https://www.ajijicweather.com/index.htm  The station is in Rancho de Oro, as far as I know and has been for several years.  

I'd be happy to post mine, IF we're in Ajijic.  We have tentative travel plans in early to mid-June.  

OK, Rancho de Oro will definitely work.

 

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June 14. Only because it's my son's birthday! LOL

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On 5/15/2021 at 3:43 PM, Mainecoons said:

As the Riberas weather station is gone we'll need to figure out a new measurement.  Anyone local with a reliable rain gage should suffice.

Go with ajijicweather.com site, does a great job IMHO.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 5/15/2021 at 1:43 PM, Mainecoons said:

Yes folks, once again that great opportunity....

May 31  Rick

June 1   Mainecoons

June 7  Bisbee

June 8   Whipstock

June 11 Artsnob

June 12  GoSolar

June 13 Gringohombre, Cedros (at PM)

June 14  Mostly Lost, dichosalocura, FlyFree, gogirl

Well we can take me off the hit-parade list. And it will be a miracle if Mainecoons doesn't drop off at midnight also!

Rick

 

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2 minutes ago, RickS said:

Well we can take me off the hit-parade list. And it will be a miracle if Mainecoons doesn't drop off at midnight also!

Rick

 

Yup, won't be happening today either.

Back in mid May the pattern shift necessary to kick off the rainy season sure looked like it was starting.  False alarm.

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Last night a lot of lightning between 4pm and 8pm  south of mt. Garcia and northeast of Ocotlan and around Zamora . Very close to us. Can't see if it rained last night  in those locations but Lagos de Moreno reported rain last night. Forecasts for al 3 areas are 95% possibility of rain after 5pm tonight. Who knows....

Also El Gigante Michoacán, on the rio Lerma, reported good rain last night which is good for the lake.

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