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Here's hoping the rainy season has started as there are water shortages and the lake is very low. The lake is almost a meter lower than this time last year and  almost 2 meters lower than this time 2 years ago.

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Very very nice and so needed.  but this is not the normal rainy season pattern yet.  Rainfall was very general over central Mexico last night including some of the areas hardest hit by the drought.  It appears the rain was triggered by a narrow cold front that plunged all the way to central Mexico on the eastern side of the country plus a mid level circulation that pulled moisture from the SW over central and southern Mexico. 

Unusual but very welcome to be sure.

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I also don't think that the the recent weather is the actual start of the seasonal rains.  But still quite nice.  The lake level changes very dramatically as the year progresses and from year to year.  I have personally seen the water level as high in Ajijic as the intersections of 16 de septiembre and the old pier was completely covered.  I have also seen it so low that there was at least a kilometer of dry ground before you could catch a boat to Scorpion Island.  They put up barbed wire fences, soccer fields, and planted crops which fairly soon went back under water.  The name of the "lake" in English is actually "Lagoon of Chapala" and when the level drops a meter or two it actually could represent a loss of half of the total volume of water.  The deepest place is something like six meters and the average depth is only about half that.  It continues to add silt from the runoff of volcanic soil in the surrounding mountains.  The murkiness that is always present is because of that silt which never settles out to form mud but it does end up displacing water.  Because of that, the laguna eventually will become wetlands and then a seasonally verdant plain....but not in our lifetimes.  Most of the water lost every year is due to evaporation which contributes to our lovely micro-climate.

Alan

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On 5/13/2021 at 9:52 PM, virgo lady said:

When is the contest posting going up?

I hope.....never.  Can´t believe anyone would spend one second on such a nonsense waste of time.  When will the first snow fall in Minneapolis or the first wildfire starts in California or the first frost in New Hampshire.

They all happen every year and someone here will feel compelled to explain in great scientific detail why when it is raining, like today, it is not the "rainy season".  How many snowfalls in Minneapolis is considered for the start of the "snowy season"?

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I have lived in Mexico for 20 years. Every year, when it rains once or twice in the late spring, everyone starts saying the rainy season is going to start early. Every year, those couple of rainy days or sprinkles stop and the rainy season kicks in when it normally does. Yet every year people talk about it as if it is somehow going to be different, even though every year it's more or less the same. 

 

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True believer? Nah. But there is a rainy season in Mexico, at least where I live. Like it rains almost every afternoon or night for about 2 months straight. Which doesn't happen the rest of the year. My garden loves it, which is all that interests me about it. I certainly don't go measuring the amount of rain that falls or comparing it to how much fell on the other side of town or what day it started this year compared to last.

But people have all sorts of weird, harmless hobbies.

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Must be a lot of true believers out there since the Mexican weather service is predicting 29 named tropical disturbances to affect the country and a wetter than average rainy season for the country.  Yes, they even call it that.

As much of Mexico is in drought now because, gasp, it doesn't rain much when it is not the rainy season and a couple years of poor rainy seasons leads to drought, a wetter than usual summer will be very welcome.

For those who haven't yet observed simply by looking out the window the seasonal nature of rainfall here, go to:  https://ajijicweather.com/index.htm

And look at the table entitled "Rainfall History."  The pattern of precipitation occurring almost entirely between the months of May and October is hard to miss.  :D 

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I remember when discussing the weather was considered a safe conversation--jeeze!

PS. I've been a weather spotter with the National Weather Service since 2003, so yes, a weather nerd.  

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2 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

Must be a lot of true believers out there since the Mexican weather service is predicting 29 named tropical disturbances to affect the country and a wetter than average rainy season for the country.  Yes, they even call it that.

As much of Mexico is in drought now because, gasp, it doesn't rain much when it is not the rainy season and a couple years of poor rainy seasons leads to drought, a wetter than usual summer will be very welcome.

For those who haven't yet observed simply by looking out the window the seasonal nature of rainfall here, go to:  https://ajijicweather.com/index.htm

And look at the table entitled "Rainfall History."  The pattern of precipitation occurring almost entirely between the months of May and October is hard to miss.  :D 

Clearly you think people here are stupid. So why don't you just ignore them?

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1 hour ago, Bisbee Gal said:

I remember when discussing the weather was considered a safe conversation--jeeze!

PS. I've been a weather spotter with the National Weather Service since 2003, so yes, a weather nerd.  

It still is.  Just making sure the newbies and non weather junkies understand the Mexican rainy season is very real, not a belief.  It is a belief that fiestas and cojetes will bring the rain, however.  They do bring hangovers and earaches though.  :D 

Do you have a weather station?  I thought about setting one up but decided there's too much local interference.  Maybe I'll put a rain gage on the upstairs mirador though.

The Mexican and Southwestern U.S. rainy season is dependent on a number of things falling into place.  The sub tropical jet must move north and weaken.  The Azores high must expand and pull both gulf and pacific moisture over Mexico in a northerly flow.  The mid level high that dominates our weather during the driest times must weaken and move east.  For the last several years.  a La Niña condition of colder water in the eastern Pacific has contributed to drought all over Mexico and the U.S. southwest.  Finally it seems to be dissipating.

This is often referred to a a monsoon but in the traditional sense of same it is not.  It is one of the most fascinating weather stories to follow.  

 

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Let's try again.  Here is the question.

Do you believe the Mexican rainy season is a belief?

This requires a simple yes or no answer.  If your answer is yes, however, this weather junkie would find your explanation of that belief very interesting.  :D 

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@Mainecoons My weather station isn't online.  I have a remote inside/outside temperature/humidity gauge, as well as a remote self-emptying rain gauge.  I have bought wind speed gauges over the years, but none proved reliable or durable enough.  

This is the best rain gauge I've ever had; it has a strong signal and doesn't 'eat' batteries and has lasted several years through heavy rains and some hail.  

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B004V1XJW0/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&th=1

I can't recommend my current indoor/outdoor temperature/humidity gauge; while it is accurate, it eats batteries and sometimes drops wireless signal even though outdoor sensor is in line of sight.  

 

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1 hour ago, Mainecoons said:

Let's try again.  Here is the question.

Do you believe the Mexican rainy season is a belief?

This requires a simple yes or no answer.  If your answer is yes, however, this weather junkie would find your explanation of that belief very interesting.  :D 

No, it is factual; just like there are cooler winter and hotter summer seasons.

All of which vary in start and end dates. 

What did I win?

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32 minutes ago, Whipstock said:

No, it is factual; just like there are cooler winter and hotter summer seasons.

All of which vary in start and end dates. 

What did I win?

Nothing yet but maybe it is time to start the annual guess the start of the rainy season thread.

Before I do that, how about some comments from y'all about what the ground rules should be.

 

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