Jump to content
Chapala.com Webboard

End to Social Distancing


Recommended Posts

The climate and socializing is probably the best thing about lakeside.  Anyone want to share your thoughts on when you think this

virus will be behind us.  When the Ajijic Plaza will look like it did last January?

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 79
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

is there a website wher you get your  conspiracy theories from. i would like to see it. STOCKPILED?  A COUPLE OF WEEKS? do you even listen to or read any news at all. talk about pulling stuff out

Real Facts are important, but they are in short supply.  Do I believe I will get any factual answer's?  I didn't ask for any factual information.  I asked for thoughts. I wanted to hear from othe

Posted Images

36 minutes ago, Referdude said:

The climate and socializing is probably the best thing about lakeside.  Anyone want to share your thoughts on when you think this

virus will be behind us.  When the Ajijic Plaza will look like it did last January?

 

REAL FACTS are important. Do you seriously believe that you will get any factual answer by posing that question here asking for THOUGHTS?-SNORK!

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Real Facts are important, but they are in short supply.  Do I believe I will get any factual answer's?  I didn't ask for any factual information.  I asked for thoughts.

I wanted to hear from others.  But since the first three replies don't even attempt to share thoughts on my question, I will share some of my thoughts.  As an example.

Back in March, the experts talked about stopping the spread to help hospitals not max out.  And also talked about Herd Immunity.  You don't hear anymore about Herd Immunity, only lock downs.  In the US the Medical community has put a lot of hope on getting a vaccine.  But 50% of Americans have already said they won't get a vaccine.  So what's left?  It either dies out on its own, gets weaker.  But we havn't seen that yet. (Italy)  So maybe all thats left is Herd Immunity.

An example of Herd Immunity, is Idaho.  Idaho is near the top of the list nationally for new outbreaks per population/capita.  Idaho is looked down on for this designation.  But our hospitals are only at 50%.  And 5% of our ventilators are in use.  So with lots of new cases, hospitals are still in good shape.  Herd Immunity may be the short term anwser.  If the spread can be monitored and limited so as not to overload the hospitals, this could be the path to overcoming this pandemic.

So, the Ajijic Plaza, my original question:  If containing the spread in Lakeside is a success, then Herd Immunity will take a lot longer.  As the population tires of lockdowns, and starts to ignore them, Herd Immunity will prevale. (Like Idaho)

My Guess: 18 months

Just a thought.

 

 

  • Sad 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi there- I'm considering coming to Lake Chapala January 2021 (from Eugene Oregon)  and want to keep informed of the Covid situation -such as numbers increasing/decreasing, how the hospitals are doing, and the current precautions. I'm assuming masks and social distancing are in place etc.  Is this forum the best place to get ongoing current information or is there a local English newspaper or other source to look into.  Any advice much appreciated. 

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

happy and rick are part of the triumvirate of too smart and too angry who will never give you a pleasant or a straight answer.

normally i would not answer your question becasue i have nothing to base an end date on. i thought maybe 3 months tops. now some countries are entering the thrd wave withno stopping in sight. as long as people insist on creating superspreaders i dont see an end at all.

i can say i am grateful to be here and not there.

Link to post
Share on other sites

2 highly effective and proven vaccines announced one week after the US elections??? Coincidence?...I don't think so!!! These will be out there in a couple of weeks and there is enough stockpiled now to get the most vulnerable vaccinated first and then rolled out to the general population. I think once the ball is rolling a lot more than 50% of the US population will jump on board. México?...this is another situation, but with these 2 companies and I understand others mass producing, I can' see it being long for Amlo to get a strong program going here also. Am I an optimist? You bet!!!  

Link to post
Share on other sites

Considering the fact that Covid-19 comes from the same family of viruses as the Common Flu and that it has been said to be very similar and behave very similary, I'm not so sure herd immunity will be much of a factor for this virus.  We don't develop true herd immunity for the common flu, every year it mutates and comes back differently and every year most people tend to catch it for a few days.  Thousands of elderly die from the flu every year in the US.  I don't see Covid-19 behaving much differently.  Even with a vaccine, the vaccine will only keep you safe for about 4 months until a new mutation comes out then you will be at risk again.  The best scenerio is that it either disappears or that we just learn to live with it just like we do with the Common Flu.  People at risk should be responsible for protecting themselves and the rest of the world should be left to continue on as normal.

  • Thanks 4
  • Sad 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think social behavior will be changed for at least one.generation. No more huggers and cheek kissers. If your boisterous, untrained dog jumps.up on me, it will get a strong knee to.the.chest.and the owner. is told the dog has not earned.the privilege to be.put out in the public. The jumper upper dogs carry a lot of germs. They were.not.properly trained as puppies.Everybody will.now be more germophobic and germ aware. Sales of personal UV sterilizer wands will boom.

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, gringohombre said:

2 highly effective and proven vaccines announced one week after the US elections??? Coincidence?...I don't think so!!! These will be out there in a couple of weeks and there is enough stockpiled now to get the most vulnerable vaccinated first and then rolled out to the general population. I think once the ball is rolling a lot more than 50% of the US population will jump on board. México?...this is another situation, but with these 2 companies and I understand others mass producing, I can' see it being long for Amlo to get a strong program going here also. Am I an optimist? You bet!!!  

is there a website wher you get your  conspiracy theories from. i would like to see it.

STOCKPILED?  A COUPLE OF WEEKS? do you even listen to or read any news at all. talk about pulling stuff out of your a**. omg

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 9
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Loraine Baker said:

Hi there- I'm considering coming to Lake Chapala January 2021 (from Eugene Oregon)  and want to keep informed of the Covid situation -such as numbers increasing/decreasing, how the hospitals are doing, and the current precautions. I'm assuming masks and social distancing are in place etc.  Is this forum the best place to get ongoing current information or is there a local English newspaper or other source to look into.  Any advice much appreciated. 

I would respond that this board is a great place to get opinions. To get facts, you will have to spend some time reviewing all the posts to learn who is reliable. There is a local English language weekly newspaper called The Guadalajara Reporter (http://theguadalajarareporter.net/)  that is pretty good at keeping us up to date.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel like we now live in an age of easy travel, easy information (not the same as factual truth) and overcrowding.  All of these elements were in play to spread the Covid 19 virus.  I don't see those things changing here, or anyplace else, any time soon.  I think we will get to a point where vaccines will prove effective for a long enough period of time to slow the spread once most of the folks get a vaccine.  Do you remember polio and smallpox?  Good vaccines were developed and almost universally used so that those viral diseases are no longer a daily worry.  But today's information highway is crowded with those who think vaccines cause autism or are a government plot to control lives.  So I tend to think that those who are at risk (and not stupid) will get vaccinated in the next year or so and others will continue to be exposed and spread the illness on into the future.  You will get an annual flu shot that will include the Covid antibodies just like the current shots that still include antibodies from the 1918 Spanish flu.  In other words, it is here to stay.  We all will learn to live with it and take the chances we feel are appropriate to our risk level.  Just remember this, you could get a virus that doesn't seem like a big deal to you but could kill a friend or family member if you spread it to them.  It  could also cause long term health issues that are not yet known.  In 1952/53 I had polio and after recovery my only current problem is one leg is much shorter than the other as well as some minor PPS issues.  But we had a neighbor who spent his post polio life in an iron lung.  Wear a mask for now to protect others, not just yourself.  Projections are that 500,000 Americans could be dead by March...many needlessly.  If true, that is more than the number of American soldiers who died in WWII and almost as many who died in the Civil War.  Be nice.  Alan

  • Thanks 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dichosalocura said:

Considering the fact that Covid-19 comes from the same family of viruses as the Common Flu

This is completely false. I suggest you do real research before posting erroneous statements.

Examples of RNA viruses
Virus Family Examples (common names) Capsid
naked/enveloped
Capsid
Symmetry
Nucleic acid type Group
1. Reoviridae Reovirus, rotavirus Naked Icosahedral ds III
2. Picornaviridae Enterovirus, rhinovirus, hepatovirus, cardiovirus, aphthovirus, poliovirus, parechovirus, erbovirus, kobuvirus, teschovirus, coxsackie Naked Icosahedral ss IV
3. Caliciviridae Norwalk virus Naked Icosahedral ss IV
4. Togaviridae Eastern equine encephalitis Enveloped Icosahedral ss IV
5. Arenaviridae Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus, Lassa fever Enveloped Complex ss(-) V
6. Flaviviridae Dengue virus, hepatitis C virus, yellow fever virus, Zika virus Enveloped Icosahedral ss IV
7. Orthomyxoviridae Influenzavirus A, influenzavirus B, influenzavirus C, isavirus, thogotovirus Enveloped Helical ss(-) V
8. Paramyxoviridae Measles virus, mumps virus, respiratory syncytial virus, Rinderpest virus, canine distemper virus Enveloped Helical ss(-) V
9. Bunyaviridae California encephalitis virus, Sin nombre virus Enveloped Helical ss(-) V
10. Rhabdoviridae Rabies virus, Vesicular stomatitis Enveloped Helical ss(-) V
11. Filoviridae Ebola virus, Marburg virus Enveloped Helical ss(-) V
12. Coronaviridae SARS-CoV-2, MERS Enveloped Helical ss IV
13. Astroviridae Astrovirus Naked Icosahedral ss IV
14. Bornaviridae Borna disease virus Enveloped Helical ss(-) V
15. Arteriviridae Arterivirus, equine arteritis virus Enveloped Icosahedral ss IV
16. Hepeviridae Hepatitis E virus
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Upfront said:

is there a website wher you get your  conspiracy theories from. i would like to see it.

STOCKPILED?  A COUPLE OF WEEKS? do you even listen to or read any news at all. talk about pulling stuff out of your a**. omg

Please climb out from under your rock...There are many sources so I have chosen one that I am sure that even you should agree would be neutral:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497

By James Gallagher…BBC

Health and science correspondent

Published 5 hours ago

When will a vaccine become available?

Pfizer believes it will be able to supply 50 million doses worldwide by the end of this year, and about 1.3 billion by the end of 2021.

Another company Astra Zeneca/Oxford also just announced an even more effective (95%) vaccine with even more doses "stockpiled". So yes..."by the end of this year" is just weeks away. 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

If you trust the Wall Street Journal New York

Some 200 Covid-19 vaccines are in development around the world, according to the World Health Organization, each one promising to protect people from the deadly coronavirus and allow them to go back to work and school.

Now, nearly a dozen are starting or nearing the final stage of testing. Depending on the results, some companies say their vaccines could be greenlighted for use as soon as this year.

Complete article here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccines-whats-coming-and-when-11598882964

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, gringohombre said:

Pfizer believes it will be able to supply 50 million doses worldwide by the end of this year, and about 1.3 billion by the end of 2021.

They can not distribute theirs as the required -70 C transport and storage facilities do not exist.

  • Thanks 4
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, AngusMactavish said:

They can not distribute theirs as the required -70 C transport and storage facilities do not exist.

Stay tuned...If they could come this far in less than a year, I am sure they can figure this out. And by the way, the Astra Zeneca version does not have this problem. Why such negativity here??? 

Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/pfizer-designed-new-container-and-plans-to-tap-shipping-companies-for-covid-19

As Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine comes into the home stretch on the R&D side, the drugmaker is scaling up an ambitious supply chain and distribution system aimed at delivering hundreds of millions of doses around the world as quickly as possible. 

The system centers on distribution sites in Kalamazoo, Michigan and Puurs, Belgium, where the company will load reusable, temperature-controlled containers on a total of two dozen trucks per day, the Wall Street Journal reports. The company plans to ship 7.6 million doses daily to nearby airports. 

The sheer size of the effort is complicated further by the fact that Pfizer's mRNA-based shot must be stored at almost 100 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. To make that happen, the company designed suitcase-sized shipping containers that will keep its doses at ultracold temperatures for up to 10 days. Each container holds between 1,000 and 5,000 doses, the newspaper reports.

https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/pfizer-vaccine-supply-chain-BioNTech-fedex-ups-dhl/588784/

DHL said in a report on vaccine distribution that there are three potential models for distribution. The direct shipment model Pfizer is using is described as the fastest method, and the logistics company said it would likely make sense for initial distribution or in cases where the final destination is close to the manufacturing facility.

The reason for avoiding the distributor is the vaccine's strict cold chain requirements, Pfizer said.

This summer, UPS Healthcare President Wes Wheeler named three main temperature ranges in the world of cold storage:

2-8 degrees Celsius.
Minus 20 degrees Celsius.
Minus 80 degrees Celsius.
The first two ranges can be handled with special packaging that can maintain that temperature for 96 hours outside of a refrigerated location. But once it gets down to minus 80 degrees Celsius, dry ice is required to keep the shipment cold.

Pfizer's and BioNTech's vaccine falls into the range that requires dry ice and has even led one federal immunization panel to say the requirements could limit its distribution. Avoiding a distributor like McKesson takes a link out of the supply chain where potential temperature diversions could occur. And to help with the distribution, Pfizer has designed a box to manage the temperature. The "temperature-controlled shippers" use dry ice to maintain a storage temperature of minus 70 degrees Celsius (plus or minus 10 degrees Celsius) for up to 10 days.

"The intent is to utilize Pfizer-strategic transportation partners to ship by air to major hubs within a country/region and by ground transport to dosing locations," the spokesperson wrote.

The boxes will be outfitted with a GPS tracker that will allow the company to track the shipments from a control tower where the company will work to ensure shipments don't experience temperature diversions. The box can then be refilled with dry ice at the dosing location to keep the vaccine at the correct temperature for storage.

"With pharma executives reporting typical spoilage rates for other vaccines during transport at 5% to as much as 20% because of inadequate temperature control, getting cold storage shipping control just right is critical to the expansion of availability," Glenn Richey, the chair of the supply chain management department at Auburn University, said in a statement.

It's not just distribution Pfizer has to focus on as it gets vaccines out to the global population. It also has to ensure a steady supply of raw materials and ensure enough space in manufacturing facilities to produce the planned number of doses.

Bourla said last month the company has been working since the beginning of the pandemic to "rapidly build up [manufacturing] capacity."

"We have worked closely with our suppliers as we ramped up production of a potential COVID-19 vaccine," the company spokesperson said. "At this time, we do not anticipate supply concerns for vaccine components, although of course a disruption of the supply environment is always possible during a pandemic."

DHL, FedEx and UPS have spoken publicly about working on vaccine distribution but have largely avoided talking about the companies they're working with, even though Pfizer has confirmed the logistics companies are part of the distribution team.

UPS is working to build out a freezer farm in Louisville, Kentucky, that will help with the distribution of the vaccines, according to Bloomberg. FedEx has highlighted its airplane fleet of 600 and 90 cold storage facilities around the world.

Logistics companies have voiced confidence in their ability to handle distribution of the vaccine, but Richey underscored that it will put a strain on the country's supply chain infrastructure, specifically highlighting a shortage of reefer transportation in the trucking market resulting from existing high demand to transport produce and other foods.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Angus, if I may add to your statement.  My entire career was in the refrigeration industry.  The USA cattle industry invented nitrozen shipping containers in the 1950s to ship bull semen.  It is used widely today.  It is readily available.  One employer I had used so much nitrogen, we made our own on site, for freezing.  American ingenuity met the demand for our friends that needed ventilators, which are a 1000 times more complicated that shipping frozen viruses.  They are already working on this.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...