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The lake level is very low this year


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I would like to apologize for my last rather harsh post. Really I guess I was angry at myself and aging. I have been collecting information on the lake for 11 years-reports and scientific studies and observations. In the last 2 years I have moved several times and cannot find my collection of data. So several things I posted may have been incorrect. What really bugged me was someone saying he walks along the shore on a regular basis and it looks as high as usual. That is not possible as Conagau measures the lake level at 7 different locations daily and the level is way down and that is most likely to be correct. As to why the report that the level looked normal to one observer there could be several explanations but it doesn’t matter as many don’t seem to be as interested as people were in earlier years. But the lake is headed to become a dry lakebed for periods of time. How our observations and weather would change.

This forum can be a very useful source for information.

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29 minutes ago, phil in mexico said:

Interesting I watch the lake level from a certain point about every other day and my non scientific observation the lake level is not going down much.

Exactly!!! Same here...and this is 13 years daily observation, and 45 years of visitation seeing flooding of the old train station (now museum), submerged Chapala pier and drought shrinking the lake to almost being non-visible from the shore. Climate change is real...for thousands of years!!!

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And I'm sure that Phil and hombre's visual observations are much more accurate than those silly old scientists at Conagau who use all sorts of boring measuring instruments and write everything down.

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I also walk the Chapala malecón almost daily and have been doing so for the past 9 and a half years.   To my non-scientific brain, I honestly don't see it to be so terribly low.  I actually think it looks higher than it has been for many of the years that I have lived here minus the past 3 years, it seems stable and normal for this time of year.  Yes, I do recall it was slightly higher last year, but this year does not seem, so far, to be alarmingly low compared to the past 9 years I have experienced here.  This year seems to be fairly normal.  And I hope it continues to be so.  The only thing different I can see is that the rains peetered out earlier this year.  Last yesr October was a wet wet month.  This year not so much.  But the temps also cooled down earlier this year too.

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I took the suggestion that the lake is very low, seriously....so I drove to the Jocotepec Malecon.....the water was over the shore line....the docks that protrude into the lake were under water...there was no longer a beach near the beach volley ball court....waves were up to the statue of Jesus on the spit of land that sticks out into the lake. The tour boat was able to pick up passengers....only from a bobbing floating dock.....I ofcourse accept the views that this will be a dry lake bed shortly...it is my eyes that are lying.

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Does anyone remember that posted on the original mexconnect that I think left the area because he thought the lake would be dried up by now. Has anyone been in the yacht club by Real de Chapala and looked at the very old map in a hallway that shows the lake level since the early 1900 hundreds. Very informational shows drastic changes in the level of Lake Chapala over a century. 

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According to the 7 Conagua sites that measure the lake level daily the level has dropped .71 centimetrs in the last 4 days and the daily drop in rate is increasing.  Most people that look at a lake when it is calm assume the level is the same all across the lake but this is usually not the case. Tides and seiches affect the laske differently in different places. The tide on Lake Chapala is very small on the lake and seiches (caused by differences in atmospheric pressure in different places and by wind) usually are small but a 30 centimeter seiche has been measured on the lake supposedly. Who are we to believe casual non scientific observations or technical measurements? The western end of the lake has the highest seiches-caused by wind piling up water there and the eastern end has th smallest seiches. The eastern end of the lake is getting quite shallow due to silt entering the lake from the Lerma river. With eutrophication the lake will be very small much of the year eventually.

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10 hours ago, MtnMama said:

And I'm sure that Phil and hombre's visual observations are much more accurate than those silly old scientists at Conagau who use all sorts of boring measuring instruments and write everything down.

Do you believe them or my (and many others) lying eyes???

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My pool is dropping fast too, no rain and a warm sun will do that every time As for the lake it will do what it will do it goes down every year  during the rainy season and will come back if we have a good rainy season, if not it will continue to go down nothing new..

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1 hour ago, Upfront said:

what i find so appalling and sad is your opposition to the laws of science. for example i look at your photo and you look like a normal person yet there seems to be no actual brain inside the head. who should we believe, me or you

Please go to the lakefront to see for yourself. Talk to any businesses there (for instance Maria's restaurant next to the Ajijic pier) or any oldtimer along the lake. Did Mostlylost post a fake chart? I have perfect eyesight (thank you Dr. Claudia) and live right on the lake (for 13 years) and walk the SAT malecon daily. THE LAKE LEVEL IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR!!! Are  we going to quibble about a few cm's one way or the other? The FACTS are on my side so I think you and the other naysayers here should believe ME!!!

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This shows how much lower the lake is this year in comparison to the last 2 years and where it is trendiing to. This trend could be reversed if there is signivicant rainfall to the east and some of the dozens of dams are opened.

 

https://www.ceajalisco.gob.mx/contenido/chapala/chapala/comportamiento.html

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I'm frankly not quite sure what all this is about. It seems to have stemmed from a previous thread where everyone was arguing about their impressions vs. Dr. Stong being an expert. I don't recall anyone saying it was up or down any more than normal. And yet here we are arguing about just that. This new thread started with an apology, which was nice to read.

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1 hour ago, cedros said:

This shows how much lower the lake is this year in comparison to the last 2 years and where it is trendiing to. 

 

https://www.ceajalisco.gob.mx/contenido/chapala/chapala/comportamiento.html

.72m. below last year...well within the "norm". Did you see those photos posted by Mostlylost? Now when that happens, maybe we should start to worry. The lake is up and down, just like the weather but now well within the "norm"!!!

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As best as I can find don't expect to see any rise in the lake until next year.  The only dam that seems to be discharging now is Tepuxtepec on the Mexico- Michoacan border. 

All the agricultural dams  to the east of us are far below for lack of rain. None of those send water to the Lerma anyway.  What is indicated by them being low is that the rainfall  east of us that would normally flow to the Rio Lerma has been poor this season. 

In 2018 the majority of those dams were at high levels indicating that the rain in the Rio Lerma watershed would have been high. Thus Chapala was at the high level in that year. 

You can see that in the last years Chapala has only increased in level after October  in 2018

 

AA Tepuxtepec presa 1.JPG

AA Tepuxtepec presa.JPG

 

AA Nivel 3 a.JPG

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13 minutes ago, Ferret said:

Then there's a whole lot of publications and videos that have his name written incorrectly.

Yes, it is often spelled wrong. "The surname Stong was first found in Bavaria, where the name was anciently associated with the tribal conflicts of the area of Franconia" "Spelling variations of this family name include: Stregen, Stang, Stange, Stragne, Strege, Streege and many more."

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16 minutes ago, Ferret said:

Then there's a whole lot of publications and videos that have his name written incorrectly.

Yes many people spell it wrong. "The surname Stong was first found in Bavaria, where the name was anciently associated with the tribal conflicts of the area of Franconia"

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Todd_Stong

 

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