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Alfaro Warns of Shutdown If Jalisco Numbers Slip


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On 7/11/2020 at 5:27 AM, Bisbee Gal said:

Social distancing of 6 feet is impossible on airplanes, even those leaving the middle seat vacant.  The distance between aisle seats across from each other are well under 6 feet; as is the distance between an aisle and window seat, or the seat in front of you or behind you.  Hepa filters do a good job, but if a person in your row, behind you, in front of you, across the aisle from you coughs or sneezes or expels droplets talking/laughing, those droplets are coming your way, long before they make it to the Hepa filter.  In fact, droplets can reach you from many rows away.  And while masks are required on most flights, passengers are allowed to remove them while drinking or eating. 

This illustration from Purdue University, 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMi0Dd76Mo

Looking at that video I might have been safe on my last Aeromexico flight. I had seat 1A, no one beside me, no one in the aisle seat on the right side of the plane. So the nearest person on my right would have been over 2 meters away. (there are only 4 seats per row in business class). One person in the two seats behind me.In any event if you have to fly it is probably best to pick the safest options.

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Harsh measures? They are logical, common sense measures proven to work to contain a highly contagious and dangerous pandemic. And those measures are designed to protect everyone-  measures that are be

Huh? I am one of the expats mentioned and am acutely aware of the economic hardship this virus has created, as are many of my fellow expats- you know, those unfeeling folks who have ponied up a portio

It makes me very sad to continually read these posts.  Everyone on our planet is under a great deal of stress. We, the retired ones are the lucky ones, we don't have to go to work, we don't have to de

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Just now, bmh said:

Well if the virus can pass via A/C I would thin it is in the air system on planes so no matter what it is not safe..

How is it in Chiapas and Oaxaca?

 

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I just lost a friend in Oaxaca and his daughter has. it..People tell me that 3 or 4 peopl die everyday.. but who knows . I will not gointo any indigenous communities amywhere, it is the same story everywhere I know in Chiapas and some of the communities on Oaxaca.

People still believe the covid is a government invention

They say there is a fever disease goong around and some people die from it. 

I know entire families who have it and the people who are contaminated continue to live as usual, the ones who do not feel to bad go shopping.. so they contaminate others for sure..

There is no social distancing, no mask worn people get sick and "cure" themselves with teas..I have more recipes than I have fingers...

This week I spoke with a friend whose entire family has it, I also spoke with 4 of the neighbors, they all told me the town was tranquilo and there ws no sickness..only in the town 5 minutes from there and 1 hour from there , there were sick people butin their town no one...

The indigenous communities right now are dangerous places to visit.. Also people do not see doctors and do not go to hospitals  because the hospitals do not return the bodies, only ashes and therefore no one is sure if the ashes are thei ashes of their love ones.

 spoke with my doctor  and neighbor in CHiapas who told me the situation was critical i.. no room in the hospitals, very little oxigene available and only in the hospitals.. 
Basically many people are sick and they either get better or die and the cases are not reported.. I would not go to Chiapas right now and would not go in any indigenous town in any state right now.

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36 minutes ago, AngusMactavish said:

Chapala EXPAT Liaison said yesterday on FB some really... you read this part and comment.

"If governor Alfaro pushes the emergency button, everything will be shut down for 14 days. In that case, I am fearful for the safety of my expat friends. There would be desperate people out and about and I would not want to see anyone a target of the desperate. If the economy is shut down, again, I will absolutely inform you as soon as I know. In that case, you must all stay home for your personal safety and utilize delivery services. You must also secure your homes and wait out the emergency."

If he does you could be very right.

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2 minutes ago, Kyle said:

Angus, I think you are really over reacting.  Insighting unrealistic and unnecessary fear

Tell it to the Chapala EXPAT Liaison! I specifically made no comment on what this OFFICIAL said.

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NOB they get financial help here basically nada. Several weeks ago I helped one of my Mexican friends to pay for 2 car loads of food and other basic needs to be distributed to those in need. I can no longer do this because a) I have no pension and b) renters for my apartments have for the most part lost their jobs and can not pay rent. ☹️ 

(I do own TESLA stock ☺️)

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Insight and Incite are two different words with very different meanings.

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4 hours ago, bmh said:

 spoke with my doctor  and neighbor in CHiapas who told me the situation was critical i.. no room in the hospitals, very little oxigene available and only in the hospitals.. 
Basically many people are sick and they either get better or die and the cases are not reported.. I would not go to Chiapas right now and would not go in any indigenous town in any state right now.

So basically, the indigenous are engaged in self-genocide, it sounds like. Just read an article yesterday about a big protest in Chiapas, the people claiming that the virus was engineered by Bill Gates. Who is feeding them these conspiracy theories? Are there no educated people who can speak to them in their own language whose information they would respect?

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Here is the article about the protest in Chiapas.  I agree 100% with Mudgirl above.  Conspiracy "theories" (LIES!) have been on a sharp uptick in recent years and some juicy ones since CV came about.  A significant minority of people in the US believe that all "mainstream" news is fake, so they curiously believe any wacko notion that comes up, mostly in social media where there is absolutely no quality control of information in postings.  Bill Gates is a new target and there are different and completely unsupported stories going around about him.  It's telling that these stories have somehow been translated into Spanish and are finding their way into indigenous communities most likely from social media, now that everyone has a "smart" phone.

Propaganda and conspiracy theories are another big reason why so many people do not follow the mandated precautions.  They think it's all "fake" - they are "tired" of CV, bla bla bla.  All to the detriment of the public well being, which is NOT the major concern of the governments, either.  God(dess) help us all.  So much willful ignorance out there.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/a-chiapas-protest-blames-bill-gates-for-the-coronavirus/

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From this morning's PV News.  Note the line I bolded:

Quote

Today, Mexico added 4,482 new cases and 276 deaths, the lowest numbers in the past 14-days, and also, not surprisingly, the results were reported on a day with the least single-day testing in the past two weeks, 40% fewer tests than the daily average since July 1.

Since July 1. Mexico has averaged 13,000 COVID-19 tests each day. Today, corresponding with a drop in reported cases, Mexico reported just over 8,000 daily tests, a reduction of 38% during the height of transmission in the country.

Today, Mexico’s president declared the virus had lost steam, but so has the government’s willingness for testing.

Currently, Mexico ranks fourth-place worldwide for deaths related to the coronavirus, overtaking Italy’s death count today. An early poll of funeral homes nationwide indicates the death-rate in Mexico is nearly twice that being reported by the federal government and infections are twelve times higher than being reported.

On Saturday, Puerto Vallarta registered 54 new cases, the largest single-day increase since the beginning of the pandemic. Puerto Vallarta maintains less than 100 COVID-19 tests each day.

After 110 days of registering the first death by COVID-19 in Jalisco (on March 23), the Ministry of Health confirmed that the State has exceeded a thousand deaths.

 

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21 hours ago, bmh said:

Well if the virus can pass via A/C I would thin it is in the air system on planes so no matter what it is not safe..

That is an if. It depends on how effecient hepta filters work.

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13 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

From this morning's PV News.  Note the line I bolded:

 

That works in countries Like the US and Canada, but in a country with little safety net, people will take chances because they have no option, so I have to wonder how well it will work. People squawk about shutting down economies in the US and Canada, but they have it good. My parents who lived through the Blitz and rationing say this is nothing in comparison. Still the pits, however.

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13 hours ago, cedros said:

That is an if. It depends on how effecient hepta filters work.

i booked  a flight back there in November. No center seat occupants, 2 weeks later they announce  they are going to sell center seats. That puts you 12 inches away from someone exhaling and at some point they are going to remove their mask to eat or drink something.

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Excerpt from article in Mexico News Daily:

In an opinion piece published in The Washington Post, Espino writes that in one of the “two epidemics” – the one the government describes – Mexico has implemented an “impeccable strategy” in the fight against the virus.

From López Obrador and López-Gatell’s point of view, he writes, hospitals are not overwhelmed, the pandemic has been controlled and Mexico’s high fatality rate is the result of “Mexicans’ poor health conditions: obesity, diabetes, hypertension, all the product of neoliberalism.”

“The other epidemic,” Espino continues, is that reported by national and foreign media and by citizens on social media.

In “the other epidemic” – the real rather than imagined one – health workers have to protest in order to receive essential supplies and members of the scientific community propose the generalized use of face masks and advocate for increased testing and contact tracing, Espinoso writes.

“But nobody listens,” he claims.

The communications consultant charges that hospitals still have beds available because thousands of patients have died without having access to critical care or a ventilator and notes that infection rates among health workers in Mexico, and the country’s Covid-19 fatality rate, are among the highest in the world.

“The reopening of activities with the current levels of infections and deaths is considered much more risky than the authorities want to accept. In the other epidemic, the forecasts are bleak and Mexico is cause for international alarm,” Espinoso writes.

He accuses López Obrador and Lopez-Gatell of propagating “demagogic discourse” that divides the country in “two irreconcilable sides: ‘them’ — the economic, intellectual, media and scientific elite and the critics and opponents of the government, and ‘us’ — the benevolent people.”

Espinoso describes Lopez-Gatell, a Johns Hopkins University-trained epidemiologist, as a “propagandist” in a lab coat.

He asserts that “in the end, we will all pay” for the government’s management of the coronavirus pandemic and its biased, politicized presentation of the situation Mexico is facing.

“We don’t have a shared truth about the health crisis, there is no common understanding about what is happening and what we should do. … Keeping us … divided and distracted might be good for López Obrador’s political domination agenda but it’s very bad for us and our country.”

Source: Milenio (sp), Reforma (sp)

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Well the good news is that it appears Jalisco won't hit at least one of Alfaro's criteria for a shutdown when he reviews the data tomorrow.  

Alfara said if the hospital capacity reached 50% he would shut down most businesses.  As of the yesterday's report the hospital capacity is at 28.7%    It was at 25.6%when he made his announcement on July 7th.

His other threshold to shutdown is if the weekly incidence rate by date of onset of symptoms reaches 400 cases for every million Jalisco inhabitants.  It was at 290 on July 7th, but I have not been able to find a source for this statistic.  Anyone know where this info resides?

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Yesterday Sunday,  27 July,  Alfaro gave an update on where Jalisco stands on his warning to shutdown.   For perspective: last week the infection rate was 300 per million, this week it is 337.  Alfaro has set the threshold for a shutdown at 400 per million.  

Enrique Alfaro Ramírez 

Estos son los indicadores de riesgo de esta semana. Si bien, nuestra capacidad hospitalaria se mantiene estable, la incidencia de casos sigue subiendo y está a punto de llegar a los 400 por cada millón de habitantes.

En las manos de todas y todos está la responsabilidad de evitar el botón de emergencia, de seguir de manera responsable el camino de la reactivación económica. Pero de seguir a este paso, no nos quedará más opción que parar totalmente durante 14 días.

La vida y salud de las personas siempre serán la prioridad. Por eso, esta semana evaluaremos la ruta a seguir y los mantendré informados de cualquier decisión que se tome.

These are the risk indicators for this week. Although our hospital capacity remains stable, the incidence of cases continues to rise and is about to reach 400 for every million inhabitants.

In everyone's hands is the responsibility to avoid the emergency button, to responsibly follow the path of economic recovery. But if we continue at this rate, we will have no choice but to stop completely for 14 days.

People's life and health will always be the priority. Therefore, this week we will evaluate the route to follow and I will keep you informed of any decision that is made.

 

 

criteria1.png

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Well, just based on personal observation both locally and in San Juan Cosala I would suggest he take his threats and shutdowns to GDL because they are basically ignoring him IMO.  At least the ones who show up around both places on the weekends.  

Locally we are not and the numbers reflect that.  50 out of 50,000 is 0.1 percent.  We're avoiding this weekend bunch like the plague and I suspect a lot of the other locals are as well.  Since they've been around for some time now and the local numbers are quite low, it may be working.

 

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On 7/12/2020 at 10:22 AM, bmh said:

Well if the virus can pass via A/C I would thin it is in the air system on planes so no matter what it is not safe..

Well the virus can't get past HEPA filters which newer planes have but not all planes and its impossible to find out from the airlines.  Some of the smaller planes use all outside air so they would be safe again depends on the plane and the airlines.  Best to stay off planes but if you must go fly a newer plane.

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Portions of Andares Mall in GDL were sanctioned and closed for violating its conditions to re-open.  Alfaro has also posted examples on his FB page of GDL restaurants acting as bars essentially, that were shut down in GDL.  Keep in mind that enforcement is left to LOCAL jurisdictions.  

In my walks around Ajijic and in picking up carryout restaurant orders these past two weeks, there are restaurants serving dine-in meals that have become meeting places for gatherings of Tapatio families who are vacationing here.  While the eateries are keeping the tables spaced apart and limiting the seating at each table, the patrons are doing a lot of table-hopping, standing and walking around maskless. 

I stopped getting carryout on weekends and have stopped ordering altogether from a few of our (former) regular places that have become more like bar venues, with younger crowds of Tapatios hanging out for extended periods, not much 'dining'  going on, but lots of drinking, table hopping, live entertainment.  

Hoping once July vacations are over and schools restart in GDL that things will calm down here, at least weekdays.  

 

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