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Alfaro Warns of Shutdown If Jalisco Numbers Slip


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Allan, it is 4 percent only if you get the virus and are diagnosed with it hence becoming part of the data.  The asymptomatic and/or very mild cases are not likely to be included yet they are a big percentage of the total.

Definitely with you on staying off of airplanes!

 

 

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Harsh measures? They are logical, common sense measures proven to work to contain a highly contagious and dangerous pandemic. And those measures are designed to protect everyone-  measures that are be

Huh? I am one of the expats mentioned and am acutely aware of the economic hardship this virus has created, as are many of my fellow expats- you know, those unfeeling folks who have ponied up a portio

It makes me very sad to continually read these posts.  Everyone on our planet is under a great deal of stress. We, the retired ones are the lucky ones, we don't have to go to work, we don't have to de

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But Mainecoons, I want to fly back from Seattle, and it is too dangerous, because I would be in three airports and on two planes. It's not fair  :)  The say flying is one of the most dangerous things one can do. Now getting back to what you posted. right now the US death rates like you said is about 4%  My data for today shows 3,165,058 cases and 135,094 deaths which is 4.3%.  And if one were to be able to count those cases where there are little to no symptoms I'm guessing that the death rate would drop below 2%.

But I aint no expert, And I could be way off  :) 

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Could be way off  In late June the CDC reported there could be as many as 10 unreported cases for every reported case. So 3,165,09 reported would equal well over 34,000,000 cases total.  In that case 135,094 deaths would equal under 0.4 percent (4 deaths per 1,000) That's assuming that the CDC doesn't change it's opinion once again.

9 minutes ago, johanson said:

But Mainecoons, I want to fly back from Seattle, and it is too dangerous, because I would be in three airports and on two planes. It's not fair  :)  The say flying is one of the most dangerous things one can do. Now getting back to what you posted. right now the US death rates like you said is about 4%  My data for today shows 3,165,058 cases and 135,094 deaths which is 4.3%.  And if one were to be able to count those cases where there are little to no symptoms I'm guessing that the death rate would drop below 2%.

But I aint no expert, And I could be way off  :) 

 

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3 hours ago, johanson said:

But Mainecoons, I want to fly back from Seattle, and it is too dangerous, because I would be in three airports and on two planes. It's not fair  :)  The say flying is one of the most dangerous things one can do. Now getting back to what you posted. right now the US death rates like you said is about 4%  My data for today shows 3,165,058 cases and 135,094 deaths which is 4.3%.  And if one were to be able to count those cases where there are little to no symptoms I'm guessing that the death rate would drop below 2%.

But I aint no expert, And I could be way off  :) 

I have seen several news stories and the video currently being shown on Aeromexico flights to Canada that on board the plane things are quite safe. Aeromexico says they have hepta filters that filter out 99.99% of airborne virus and bacteria and that they let jets of clean air from outside into the plane. Who is checking that?

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I'm sure the cases are under reported in the US as well as Mexico.  We have been told from the start that unless you have other health issues which put your life in danger you should just stay home and treat symptomatically.  There could easily be ten times as many cases as there are official ones.  That does make the death rate much, much lower.  The 4% is what is officially reported.  Also it could be that many of the deaths were of people who had Covid19 but died of something else just made more serious by the addition of the virus.  The sad part of the really low case numbers compared to what might be really out there is that in spite of a lower death rate you have a hugely worse sickness rate.  30,000,000 instead of 3,000,000 is not really good news.  Same number dead but lots more terribly sick.  I am pretty healthy and would likely not die from the virus.  I still do not want to get sick with it and risk dying from it.  It is not the flu and anybody who has shown serious symptoms has said the same thing.  Also unclear are the potential long term health effects after recovery.  Many have few symptoms and some die.  A lot of unknown in between.  Just take care of yourselves and wear a mask if you go out.  It might keep somebody else from getting sick.  Alan

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I suspect Alfaro is paying close attention to the healthcare tragedies that are currently unfolding in Arizona, Texas, and Florida.  If Alfaro takes steps to open the economy sooner, I ask what is the backup plan to be implemented when all of the hospitals in Guadalajara are at full capacity? 

The purpose of mitigating measures is to stagger hospital admissions and protect our frontline healthcare workers.  When those two safety nets are breached,  there will be few if any options left on the table.  So what is Plan B when that happens?  Lot of opinions here about opening the economy but not much foresight.

If you think this is a healthcare crisis today in Jalisco, just wait.  Personally, I will take my chances with Alfaro.  Thus far his policies have proven to be more successful than the public health policies I have seen on either side of the border.  If you think the economy here needs to be opened now, then history will show that the infection rates will increase rapidly, followed by hospital admissions, and finally deaths.  About four to six weeks.  If you are an elderly expat with cardiac conditions, cancer, or other serious disease,  take a number in the hospital parking lot and be sure to buy pre-burial insurance.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/all-the-hospitals-are-full-in-houston-overwhelmed-icus-leave-patients-waiting-in-er/ar-BB16AFOW?li=BBnb7Kz

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9 hours ago, cedros said:

I have seen several news stories and the video currently being shown on Aeromexico flights to Canada that on board the plane things are quite safe. Aeromexico says they have hepta filters that filter out 99.99% of airborne virus and bacteria and that they let jets of clean air from outside into the plane. Who is checking that?

Social distancing of 6 feet is impossible on airplanes, even those leaving the middle seat vacant.  The distance between aisle seats across from each other are well under 6 feet; as is the distance between an aisle and window seat, or the seat in front of you or behind you.  Hepa filters do a good job, but if a person in your row, behind you, in front of you, across the aisle from you coughs or sneezes or expels droplets talking/laughing, those droplets are coming your way, long before they make it to the Hepa filter.  In fact, droplets can reach you from many rows away.  And while masks are required on most flights, passengers are allowed to remove them while drinking or eating. 

This illustration from Purdue University, 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMi0Dd76Mo

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19 minutes ago, Bisbee Gal said:

Social distancing of 6 feet is impossible on airplanes, even those leaving the middle seat vacant.  The distance between aisle seats across from each other are well under 6 feet; as is the distance between an aisle and window seat, or the seat in front of you or behind you.  Hepa filters do a good job, but if a person in your row, behind you, in front of you, across the aisle from you coughs or sneezes or expels droplets talking/laughing, those droplets are coming your way, long before they make it to the Hepa filter.  In fact, droplets can reach you from many rows away.  And while masks are required on most flights, passengers are allowed to remove them while drinking or eating. 

This illustration from Purdue University, 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMi0Dd76Mo

True but there are some precautions you can take. Fly in business class. Do not take an aisle seat as the hoi polloi will walk pass you when loading. Window seat only at the bulkhead so one one is in front of you. I recently flew Aeromexico to Vancouver. The aisle seat beside me was empty. The only person within a meter of me was the person behind me. Masks were required. I did not hear any coughing in business class.The Aeromexico video clip claimed that the air inside the plane was almost operating room quality. 

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Flying business class is damned expensive.  I'm not getting on any airplanes until there is a proven vaccine, period.  Bisbee is right, high risk no matter how you look at it.  May as well go hang out in a bar if you are going to fly.

 

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27 minutes ago, cedros said:

True but there are some precautions you can take. Fly in business class. Do not take an aisle seat as the hoi polloi will walk pass you when loading. Window seat only at the bulkhead so one one is in front of you. I recently flew Aeromexico to Vancouver. The aisle seat beside me was empty. The only person within a meter of me was the person behind me. Masks were required. I did not hear any coughing in business class.The Aeromexico video clip claimed that the air inside the plane was almost operating room quality. 

You got lucky with the adjacent seat being empty; there is no guarantee of that short of buying the seat.  You probably had people seated within 6 feet of you, either behind or across the aisle.   

If I absolutely had to fly I would wear an N95 mask the entire time, not just on board, but within airports; my normal travel involves layovers at IAH or DFW and requires me to go through TSA checkpoints as well as immigration at these transfer points.  

Here is a report on TSA agents and Covid.  It even lists the number of TSA agents that tested positive by airport and last day they worked. 

You flew to Canada, but one has to wonder about the incidence of infection among GDL airport security personnel....are they even tested ??    My flights normally require me to take a bus from GDL terminal to my aircraft....that's another high risk area.

Then there's the 14 day self-quarantine that most countries are requiring.  Hopefully you followed that procedure on both ends of your recent flights.  

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus

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Overall, TSA has had 1,033 federal employees test positive for COVID-19. 663 employees have recovered, and 6 have unfortunately died as a result of the virus.  We have also been notified that one screening contractor has passed away due to the virus.

TSA is committed to notifying the public about airport locations where TSA employees or screening contractors have tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. The chart below lists airports with confirmed COVID-19 cases and the last date worked for the most recent screening employee who tested positive. It does not include non-airport TSA employees or contractors who have had limited interaction with the public. Passengers who believe they may have come in contact with an infected individual within the past 14 days should follow the CDC’s recommendations for travel-associated exposure.

 

 

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Mainecoons is right.  And it is not just the flight on the plane.  Lines at check in, getting through TSA checkpoints, lines for boarding, customs, immigration, and baggage claim are all choke points.  You really might as well hang out in the crowded bar while you wait for your flight to board. Then public transportation to get to your destination.  You are crazy to risk flying (or taking a bus) anywhere until you can get a proven vaccine.  Most travel is really non-essential when it comes down to it.   Alan

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1 hour ago, Mainecoons said:

Flying business class is damned expensive.  I'm not getting on any airplanes until there is a proven vaccine, period.  Bisbee is right, high risk no matter how you look at it.  May as well go hang out in a bar if you are going to fly.

 

It is expensive  but I suspect the person who was concerned about flying can afford it. 

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31 minutes ago, Bisbee Gal said:

You got lucky with the adjacent seat being empty; there is no guarantee of that short of buying the seat.  You probably had people seated within 6 feet of you, either behind or across the aisle.   

If I absolutely had to fly I would wear an N95 mask the entire time, not just on board, but within airports; my normal travel involves layovers at IAH or DFW and requires me to go through TSA checkpoints as well as immigration at these transfer points.  

Here is a report on TSA agents and Covid.  It even lists the number of TSA agents that tested positive by airport and last day they worked. 

You flew to Canada, but one has to wonder about the incidence of infection among GDL airport security personnel....are they even tested ??    My flights normally require me to take a bus from GDL terminal to my aircraft....that's another high risk area.

Then there's the 14 day self-quarantine that most countries are requiring.  Hopefully you followed that procedure on both ends of your recent flights.  

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus

 

I always follow procedure. I repeat the only person sitting within 6 feet of me was behind me. I asked for the seat beside me to be empty. There were very few lines-none at boarding as I had priority, none at immigration a bit of a one at security. You have to wonder about the infection of everyone everywhere. No buses.

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fyi, sneezes, coughs, droplets....they go forward first before disbursing.  

You may have flown at an opportune time for crowds.  Now, flights are getting more, not less crowded as businesses re-open.  Especially in business class...."asking" not to have someone sit next to you may not be do-able on your next journey.  

 

 

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They have to pack the planes to make it profitable and American and United are already doing that and the rest are going to follow suit.  It is either than or close the doors.

 

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On 7/9/2020 at 1:06 AM, mudgirl said:

All they have to do is wear a damn mask, not around their neck, but properly, stop having parties as if the pandemic is a joke, and enforce distancing in their stores. It's not that complicated.

I'm in Miami now (hotspot out-of-control) and it's the same here. Makes me SO angry--can't use the excuse the 'masks are too hot" as there is a/c everywhere! Really, how difficult is it to wear a mask?  If 90% of the population around the globe wore a mask for 3 short weeks when out in public this virus would be gone from the planet. 

3 short weeks! 

Such a contrast in thinking in Mexico, even among the Mexicans: our gardener and his assistant wear their masks religiously, even when they are working outdoors in our garden. But our housekeeper, who lives in a small, crowded home with 9? other family members, will not wear a mask in our home. Glad I'm not there. 

 

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And after the three short weeks when they take the masks off, it is back to the races.  We've already seen that demonstrated as soon as these repeatedly extended quarantines were lifted.

This virus isn't going anywhere for a while.  Get used to it.

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1 hour ago, Mainecoons said:

And after the three short weeks when they take the masks off, it is back to the races.  We've already seen that demonstrated as soon as these repeatedly extended quarantines were lifted.

This virus isn't going anywhere for a while.  Get used to it.

The virus resurfaces because it is imported from elsewhere, with individual carriers who haven't been wearing masks. I'm talking about a global level of mask wearing.  The algorithms are available online, if you look.

The biggest hope is that this virus is weakening. Scientifically speaking, coronoaviruses like this one usually start in bats (or maybe, pangolins). They  then spread to a wild animal, such as a wild cat or fox that eats an infected bat that has had contact with a rabbit. The cat or fox catches the coronavirus, but the virus is weakened somewhat. Then, the fox or wild cat passes the virus onto another mammal, eventually reaching us humans in a weak and mutated state. It is the coronaviruses that skip the mammalian chain--not giving it time to mutate--that pose the greatest threats.

As time goes on this virus should be mutating among the human population, and it appears to be doing so. 

In the meantime the AstraZeneca (ticker AZN) vaccine (Oxford vaccine out of the UK) is in its 3rd and final trial, ending around August 20/21st.  AZN's  partner manufacturing facility in India has already processed millions of vials of this vaccine, on the assumption that the final trial results will be successful. The UK and USA have each contracted 80 and 300 million vials, respectively, with anticipated distribution in mid-September through October. 

 

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4 hours ago, cedros said:

True but there are some precautions you can take. Fly in business class. Do not take an aisle seat as the hoi polloi will walk pass you when loading. Window seat only at the bulkhead so one one is in front of you. I recently flew Aeromexico to Vancouver. The aisle seat beside me was empty. The only person within a meter of me was the person behind me. Masks were required. I did not hear any coughing in business class.The Aeromexico video clip claimed that the air inside the plane was almost operating room quality. 

Thinking it would be safer, I flew business class from  Guadalajara via Dallas to Seattle in mid June. On my two flights it was a mistake. Every business class seat was occupied but when you looked back into the tourist class area less than 1/4 of the seats were occupied on one flight and about 1/3 full on the other..  I have no idea whether or not this is still happening.

For protection, I wore an  N95 mask (175 pesos) and  several pairs of surgical gloves.

I would be much more happy if I were home in Ajijic. The only advantage of Seattle is, that I can buy TV dinners  :)  

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Interesting . I flew business class on Air Canada from Toronto to Puerto Vallarta in April. There were 18 seats in business class. I was the only passenger in there. About 10 people in the back of the plane (a plane that holds about 200). The planes seem to be flying much fuller since then.

Earlier this month I flew business class on Aeromexico to Vancouver.  Business class was almost full. In the back of the plane there were 90 some passengers. Most of these 90 some were Mexicans flying to pick fruit in British Columbia. 

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Yes Cedros, earlier in the year I too found most folks in the rear of the plane  and very few in Business or first class. It seems to me that it used to be that way almost always in the past.

Oh and when I used to have a cottage in the states that was slightly closer to Vancouver than Seattle, I would often fly to Hongcouver sorry I meant Vancouver :) and then take the train down to Bellingham or Mount Vernon.

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Had a nice walk on the Ajijic Malecon this morning, me and my friend seemed to be the only people wearing a mask, looks like a good reason to another lockdown.

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4 hours ago, kimanjome said:

The virus resurfaces because it is imported from elsewhere, with individual carriers who haven't been wearing masks. I'm talking about a global level of mask wearing.  The algorithms are available online, if you look.

The biggest hope is that this virus is weakening. Scientifically speaking, coronoaviruses like this one usually start in bats (or maybe, pangolins). They  then spread to a wild animal, such as a wild cat or fox that eats an infected bat that has had contact with a rabbit. The cat or fox catches the coronavirus, but the virus is weakened somewhat. Then, the fox or wild cat passes the virus onto another mammal, eventually reaching us humans in a weak and mutated state. It is the coronaviruses that skip the mammalian chain--not giving it time to mutate--that pose the greatest threats.

As time goes on this virus should be mutating among the human population, and it appears to be doing so. 

In the meantime the AstraZeneca (ticker AZN) vaccine (Oxford vaccine out of the UK) is in its 3rd and final trial, ending around August 20/21st.  AZN's  partner manufacturing facility in India has already processed millions of vials of this vaccine, on the assumption that the final trial results will be successful. The UK and USA have each contracted 80 and 300 million vials, respectively, with anticipated distribution in mid-September through October. 

 

Realistically there is no way to tell how effective this vaccine will be - it could work only for the few months it has been tested or for several years. The company could quickly make millions of dollars on a vaccine that needs to be repeated every few months. It is also a very small window for fully evaluating side effects which could prove serious. Not exactly a win/win situation for anyone but AZN.

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The Emergency Button, explained Alfaro Ramírez, consists of the definition and application of two new indicators that will be evaluated: Saturation of the hospital system and weekly incidence rate by date of onset of symptoms.

"If the first indicator reaches 50% or the second reaches 400 cases for every million inhabitants, we will have to stop once again. So clear. Today we are at the first indicator at 26% and at the second at 290 ”.

 

The hospital saturation (occupancy) as of yesterday is 27.6% well below the 50% threshold set by Alfaro for a new shutdown. 

In checking this % over time:

May 1st    10.2%

June 1st   21.9%

July 1st    26.2%

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Chapala EXPAT Liaison said yesterday on FB some really... you read this part and comment.

"If governor Alfaro pushes the emergency button, everything will be shut down for 14 days. In that case, I am fearful for the safety of my expat friends. There would be desperate people out and about and I would not want to see anyone a target of the desperate. If the economy is shut down, again, I will absolutely inform you as soon as I know. In that case, you must all stay home for your personal safety and utilize delivery services. You must also secure your homes and wait out the emergency."

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