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Alfaro Warns of Shutdown If Jalisco Numbers Slip


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Just now, dichosalocura said:

Yes Mudgirl, the obvious truth is sad, very sad.  My post was sad.  But there is nothing you or I or we can do to stop what is happening on the ground.  Most assuredly the virus is going to and will do what is has set out to do.  There is nothing we can do, short of even turning Jalisco into a police state with the military on every block will reverse the direction that the virus is taking, it has gone way too far.  We must accept reality.

Are you unaware that there are places in the world that enforced stringent lockdown measures and reduced their cases to none? And that new cases only appeared when outsiders entered the community? There are ways to contain and eradicate a disease without a vaccine. The only reason that coronavirus is still running rampant is that there has been no worldwide co-ordinated approach and that people are too ignorant and stubborn to comply.  

And are you unaware that death isn't the only danger from this virus? That people are experiencing long-term effects from brain damage, other nervous disorders, organs affected, etc. etc? 

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Harsh measures? They are logical, common sense measures proven to work to contain a highly contagious and dangerous pandemic. And those measures are designed to protect everyone-  measures that are be

Huh? I am one of the expats mentioned and am acutely aware of the economic hardship this virus has created, as are many of my fellow expats- you know, those unfeeling folks who have ponied up a portio

It makes me very sad to continually read these posts.  Everyone on our planet is under a great deal of stress. We, the retired ones are the lucky ones, we don't have to go to work, we don't have to de

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Yes, I am aware of that, South Korea and Japan have done very well.  They have a highly educated population that hold great regard and trust in their government and public officials.  Mexico is not like those countries, and apparently out neighbor to the North is not going to cooperate either.  Some parts of Europe did ok, not great, many parts of Europe had astronomical high mortality rates even after maintaining a super strict quarantine, approximating to almost a near police state.  Just to leave your small apartment  you needed to acquire a government issued permit to just go out to buy food.  And yet, the news tells us it is beginning another round of surging through out the populations around the world.  I guess, if we completely close off the entire planet and mandate all souls to remain in their homes for two years minimum,  I guess it is possible to completely eradicate the virus, but even that ludicrous idea is up for debate.  The percentage of deaths is so incredibly low in comparison to the population at large, what would we even benefit from doing that?  And it will obviously just rebound and begin to surge again once people begin to leave their homes again.  Yes, there is a small percentage of people that have long lasting long-term effects from the virus.  The percentage is very low off course.  I remember back in May that they were saying that children were dying from the virus.  Two weeks ago an Al-Jazeera article came out saying that (they are extremely leftist by the way), yes, children had died from Coronavirus, but so far only 3 kids had died in the US since January.   There is a lot of opinionated and hysterical news articles out there, on a daily basis to read, if you could just get past the opinions and the noise from the journalists and just focus on the data they provide, the data will tell an entirely different narrative.  For example, the CDC hasn't openly stated it as of yet, but if you read their data, the data says that the mortality rate in the USA is at .4%.  So, that means that less than 99% of the people that become infected with the virus in the USA will die.  Try to put all the figures into perspective and please ignore the hysteria and the noise.

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What I would like to see is constructive conversation, no matter which sides people take.

I can single out several excellent posters who understand that the human race is not living up to its mental ability to adapt to the crisis, and what is worse, does not seem to "get it" or care.

A local Mexican lady works near Andares Mall, Hierro de Palacio (high end shopping mall). She told me on Sunday that the restaurants are wall to wall people, nobody wearing masks, zero social distancing.

These are the wealthy of Guadalajara behaving this way. I repeat, the privileged class, that one might assume has a higher intelligence, simply is ignoring the health threat.

Where posters put their priorities and attitudes is secondary to what is a real threat. That is why conversations must be constructive. It is real as real can be. I have two nieces in medicine working the hospital frontlines in New Jersey outside Manhattan. One, mother of four, psychiatric nurse pressed into Covid duty 12 hours a day, caught the virus. She survived. The other, a highly skilled new surgeon who assists with organ transplant surgeries and is in the last year of residency at NYU, so far has not caught the virus. She has just spent the last eight to ten years of her young life becoming one of the most promising surgeons. She could catch the virus and be dead in two weeks, her whole life wiped out, and all the promise she offers.

Then we have expats who won't wear a mask, who won't social distance, imposing handshakes and hugs on others, leading their lives as though they are not required to respect others' health because "I feel fine," or respect the community's health at large. One can see how anger might build, but I respect people's rights and differences of opinion. I just wish they'd understand what they are doing to other people's efforts to survive this, and burned out medical workers putting themselves on the line to save lives.

In my best guess, 2/3 of Chapala Mexican people on the streets are wearing masks, and less than 1/3 of expats are wearing masks. Disrespect cannot be more clearly on display. It is some kind of ignorance or stubbornness that is falsely cloaked in rights of personal freedom.

We have another 6 to 9 months before a vaccine. What horrible calamity has to hit Lakeside before people will wear a mask and keep social distance.

Stay constructive.

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Southland, your comment was very honest and very heart felt.  You are very correct that the virus has propagated to nearly unreversible levels because many people who feel privileged don't care and they refuse to wear masks to stop the spread of the virus.  Chapala is near an international airport with continuous flights taking off and landing daily (it never stopped due to the pandemic) and we are right next to the second largest metropolitan megalopolis in the country.  We are sitting in the playground and the most touristic place immediately outside Guadalajara for the Tapatíos, thousands own weekend homes on the North shore.  We are very lucky the virus has been as benign as it as proven to be in our area.  It could have become far worse and it still might.  It is curious to me, that if the contagion rate were truly known for this area, probably it would be shown to be highly prevalent throughout the general population.   It has been slowly infecting us since January.  It did not just magically arrive two weeks ago, contrary to what many would have us believe.  How could it have, us being so close to the USA?  I was on the malecón on Monday when a funeral for Chapala's 4th victim of the Covid-19 virus was taking place.  I spoke with the family, they told me that the deceased was a lady in her late 60's who had suffered many years from diabetes, they said the government had included her death on the Covid-19 list for the region, but they assured me that she had died from diabetes not Covid.  So, is it possible that the virus in this area has become so entrenched in the population that anybody that dies and also tests positive for the virus, they immediately and automatically claim they died from Covid?   All we can do is just sit back and watch the drama play out.  

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I keep seeing references to mortality rates of less than 1%. dichosalocura above uses 0.4%.

The numbers as of this morning for the US are 3,118,168 total confirmed cases with 133,291 deaths.

That's 4.27% mortality by my calculation. Am I missing something?

SunFan

 
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1 minute ago, SunFan said:

I keep seeing references to mortality rates of less than 1%. dichosalocura above uses 0.4%.

The numbers as of this morning for the US are 3,118,168 total confirmed cases with 133,291 deaths.

That's 4.27% mortality by my calculation. Am I missing something?

SunFan

 

Yeah, your math is off.  Try 0.404%

133,291 x 100%/330,000,000

 

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8 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

Yeah, your math is off.  Try 0.404%

133,291 x 100%/330,000,000

 

Hold it. You're calculating based on the total population of the United States not those who have been affected. So I guess with you logic back in March when deaths were in the tens of thousands the death rate must have been infinitesimally small.

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Yes I am.  That is the basis one calculates the total impact of a pandemic.  Since we do not really know how many in total are or have been infected it is the only realistic basis for evaluating the total impact.  Without knowing the total number of cases,, your 4 percent figure is meaningless.  Even at the levels of testing in the U.S. it is impossible to determine the total number of people who have had some encounter with the CV, asymtomatic or mild.

Yes, back in March it was.  And then there's always the question of how many of these people actually died from other causes.  

The death rate is falling as more of the general population encounters the virus.

In the historical perspective, looking at the Spanish flu, 675,000 out of a population of 106,000,000 died from it.  That's 6.4 percent.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

The 1957-58 Swine flu was a world pandemic.  In the U.S. the estimated death rate by CDC was 116,000 out of a population of 175 million.  That computes to 0.66 percent.  This bug has a lot of similarities to that one and we could well end up with a similar death rate from it.

I hate to keep using U.S. data but there really is no reliable Mexican data out there.  It is a fair assumption that in most if not all cases the death rate in Mexico and other similar countries is going to be considerably higher due to poor general public health and less adequate health facilities.

 

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I believe the mortality rate in the US is half of what it was in France or Italy.. ercapita.. Stilll lots of people are  dying.. Looking at statistics s easy to forget that behind the figures  there are people dying and many families affected.

Yesterday I caledl my neighbor in Chiapas who has a clinic and he told me the situation down there is critical. I asked him where to find oxigene for friends who need it and will not go to the hospital and he told me "there is none it is very scarce and only government hospitals have it down here". A woman died in Tapachula in front of the hospital after she waited hours for help.. It is really awful down there and we better hoepe we do not have the sme situation up here eventually if people do not pay attention to the warnings.. The percentage maybe very small but when you are the one being affecte it seems way more important ,.. Please stop talking about the US , we live in Mexico and that is where we eill need help if we get  in trouble. but also that

The situation can change very quickly and the government is vastly underreporting the problem, 1 not to scare people and 2 because it is impossible to include everyone who is sck and dies at home. In Chiapas indigenous wll not go to the hospital and say they cure themselves with teas.. forgetting that most people do get better with or without tea and for those who do not , they just die get buried and life goes on contaminating each other.. wthout ever reporting anything.

 

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The problem I see in the communities is not the poor health problem as many are young and do not have health problems but the people will not wear mask and observe the least distancing or follow any rules.. Yesterday I was speaking with a family where the mother, father  3 kids, daughter in layw are sick with covid.. and I am not mentioning the two bothers who have a similar situation in their family.. The mother had a huesero and another  traditional medecine person look at one of the son.. which mean that these two medecine people were also exposed to the virus and will contaminate all of their future patients... They are on their 7 or 8 th day  of the disease and  one of them is beginning t show problem with brathing, that is why I called a doctor..  I found out the doctors and hospitals are basicaly in trouble and the only thing people can do is to stay home and suvive or di,e..

Just about everyone I spoke to this week has or had the virus and none of these cases appear anywhere..I  think the underreporting in indigenous areas like Chiapas , Oaxaca, Guerrero, etc is huge... 

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8 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

Yes I am.  That is the basis one calculates the total impact of a pandemic.  Since we do not really know how many in total are or have been infected it is the only realistic basis for evaluating the total impact.  

 

Your calculation merely shows the number of deaths as a % of the total population. Statistically interesting but what I would want to know is if I'm infected what are my chances of dying....that's the 4% ratio. In the USA I would have a one in 25 chance of dying.

SunFan

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The death rate varies by age and complicating factors.  This is why the death rate has been so high in nursing homes.  There is no one size fits all.

Assuming you are up in years as I am, we are in the higher risk for death age bracket.  I believe the overall death rate for those over 70 is at least twice your 4 percent figure.  I've seen analyses that suggest 10 percent is likely for the over 70 cohort.  Of course the data are skewed by the nursing home mortality.  People are in nursing homes generally because they have other serious health or mental issues.

In terms of evaluating the overall severity of a pandemic, one has to focus on the total figures.  When one does, and placing this one in the long term pandemic perspective, it is significantly less than other pandemics.  But it is still running its course so we don't know what the final figures will be.

 

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Also people with type A blood are more likely to die   thanpeople with O type.. Men are more likeky to die than women.. there are lots of factors ... involves..

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2 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

The Tapatios have been back for some weeks now, where's the explosion of cases?

 

From Radar Jalisco:

June 9, Cases/Deaths                                     July 9, Cases/Deaths

Chapala     12/0                                                     Chapala    36/2

Joco             9/1                                                       Joco        45/4 

Ixtla              7/2                                                      Ixtla           41/2

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3 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

Yeah, your math is off.  Try 0.404%

133,291 x 100%/330,000,000

 

SunFan's math is not off, but yours appears to be off by a magnitude of 10 times the actual figure.  By my calculations, 133,291/330,000,000 = .000404, which equates to 0.0404% (not 0.404%) .

I think there is a lot of misuse of the term "mortality rate" in reported and discussed data pertaining to covid19 when the more accurate term should be "case fatality rate."  As I understand it, mortality rate (as you correctly assert) = deaths/total population, while case fatality rate = deaths/total infected population.

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40 minutes ago, MexSeekin said:

I think there is a lot of misuse of the term "mortality rate" in reported and discussed data pertaining to covid19 when the more accurate term should be "case fatality rate."  As I understand it, mortality rate (as you correctly assert) = deaths/total population, while case fatality rate = deaths/total infected population.

Many thanks for the clarification. I misspoke when I used the term "mortality rate" instead of "fatality rate"..

SunFan

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32 minutes ago, SunFan said:

Many thanks for the clarification. I misspoke when I used the term "mortality rate" instead of "fatality rate"..

SunFan

One fact. The mortality rate can be calculated accurately.  The fatality rate only takes into account confirmed cases and therefore is subject to a huge counting error based on the estimates of non confirmed cases. 

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5 hours ago, SunFan said:

Your calculation merely shows the number of deaths as a % of the total population. Statistically interesting but what I would want to know is if I'm infected what are my chances of dying....that's the 4% ratio. In the USA I would have a one in 25 chance of dying.

The death rate is actually about double that. Because counting the deaths against all the people who have been and currently are infected doesn't tell the real story. What you have to look at is the resolved case rate to know how deadly it is. People who had the virus and either recovered or died. You don't know how many people who are currently infected will recover. The resolved case death rate in the US is currently 9%. In Mexico it's 16%.

All past pandemic death rates are based on resolved cases, as are those for other diseases like the flu, measles, etc. 

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The Governor of Jalisco has handled the pandemic pretty well and here at Lakeshore most citizens are observing the rules. It would be a shame to ruin the economy by declaring a total shutdown now. In the meantime I will stock up of what they call non essential and hurry back to get my hair cut at my favorite barber shop.

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The death rate is possibly going down because we are learning to treat teh disease more effectively. Many related deaths are not being counted because side effects, such as stroke, heart condition, or diabetes caused the death but were exacerbated by having the virus.

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In the US the percentage of folks who get the virus and then die from it and/or complications is about 4%.  How many would have died of those same complications without the Covid added in is open to pure guessing.  But I'm also guessing that those who did have contributing factors which led to their death sure wished they hadn't also contracted the virus.  I just read that Jalisco state gov. has mandated masks for all public spaces including while driving in cars (?) parks, stores, malecons, walkways, and any public transportation, spaces, and buildings until the end of July.  I guess that means walking the dog by yourself or riding in a car by yourself.  Not sure I understand that but I fully understand the public transportation mandate because the buses are crowded and almost nobody including the driver is masked.  I just read that over 1,000 TSA agents have tested positive for Covid19...think about pat downs, long lines, and crowded planes after the TSA inspections.  I'm not flying anywhere anytime soon!  I still don't understand why wearing or not wearing a mask became so political.  It seems like a minor inconvenience for the better chance of safety for the community at large.  Like speed limits, seat belts, TSA, rabies vaccinations for pets, building codes (well, not so much here) and lots of other things that we might not like on occasion but adhere to the rules because we are all part of a society that only functions when we think about the big picture but act as individuals to make the place better if we can.  Alan

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