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Lakeside friends, this is being circulated by email and on Facebook. In case anyone has missed seeing it:


Hi All,

I just want to pass on an update I have from my friend, Dra. Margarita Ibarra Lloyd, a nephrologist who works at the Nueva Hospital Civil. It looks like things just went critical in GDL today. Her hospital went from 10% to 80% occupancy with covid cases in just one day, today. Two health care
workers were sent home after testing positive, and they are waiting for more test results.
What this means is now more than ever is the time to really take things seriously. We have a lot of visitors from Guadalajara Lakeside today, and when I went for groceries, I saw very few with facemasks or doing any kind of social distancing. Nani has told me that this is the most critical time for our area to not let down our guard. The Epidemiologist in Jocotepec says that June is when we can expect a lot of cases. So its still stay home, stay safe. Please don't relax your guard just yet, no matter how fed up we all are of quarantine.
Could you pass this on to your networks please? Its important the word gets out.

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I guess if it's on FB it must be true, eh?

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Best bet:  Stay at home on the weekends and popular Mexican holidays.  That way you don't have to worry about what they are doing and you are focused on your own protection.

Curious as to where you went for groceries since I believe WalMart and Soriana are enforcing the face mask rule.

 

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Just now, Mainecoons said:

Best bet:  Stay at home on the weekends and popular Mexican holidays.  That way you don't have to worry about what they are doing and you are focused on your own protection.

Curious as to where you went for groceries since I believe WalMart and Soriana are enforcing the face mask rule.

 

I am not the OP. 

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According to El Informador 12 new confirmed cases amoung healthcare workers reported Saturday in Jalisco of which most were in PV. 66 total new confirmed in Jalisco. No new deaths. Nothing mentioned regarding shortage of beds available in the news

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I read that Dr. Fauci said it could cause "irreparable harm" to delay opening economies.

Did he really say that? I don't know but it would be a site easier to find out than what was in the first post.

If he did say that do I necessarily believe that since he seems to be everyone's favorite Covid-19 expert? No I don't necessarily believe him.

If I did believe him would I try to convince others to believe the way I do? No, I trust everyone to make the best decision for themselves based on facts and their own risk tolerance. I don't have to hate someone I happen to disagree with.

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44 minutes ago, oregontochapala said:

I am not the OP. 

I know that.  I was commenting on the quote in the post.  Glad to see someone understands we are hardly isolated from GDL here.  Between the delivery and tradespeople coming in daily there's the many GDL folks who own homes here, like the ones next door to me, and continue to visit, particularly on the weekends.

It's here it just hasn't surfaced yet.  

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17 minutes ago, pappysmarket said:

I read that Dr. Fauci said it could cause "irreparable harm" to delay opening economies.

Did he really say that? I don't know but it would be a site easier to find out than what was in the first post.

If he did say that do I necessarily believe that since he seems to be everyone's favorite Covid-19 expert? No I don't necessarily believe him.

If I did believe him would I try to convince others to believe the way I do? No, I trust everyone to make the best decision for themselves based on facts and their own risk tolerance. I don't have to hate someone I happen to disagree with.

There's so much tune changing going on these days it is hard to keep up.  Now they are saying that CV patients mostly develop immunity and getting it from surfaces is pretty unlikely.

They are also finding a rather large percentage walking around asymptomatic or showing such mild symptoms it isn't apparent to the person or those around him/her that there is infection present.  

The one constant is the young seem to be surviving it for the most part and us old folks a lot less so, but still around ten percent and that is mainly the infirm old.  Mexico along with most if not all of Latin America isn't going to do well because of a combination of factors including weak critical care medical facilities, a population that is heavily tilted towards the unhealthy side, the prevalent condition of multiple generations including the old under the same roof.  It wouldn't surprise me if the final tally is in the 2-3 percent range in this country and in much of central and south America.

Keeping up our guard is a very good recommendation and I expect to be doing it for quite a while.

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I received the same message from a very credible friend.  I don't think this is "fake" news, it's just to get the news out faster than a media outlet would be able to.  i'm not happy about having the hordes from GDL here, especially when so many aren't wearing masks these days, let alone socially isolating.  When you relax the regs just a little, people start slacking off putting all of us in danger because CV is very highly contagious.  One case can spread to many even before they know they are sick.

There are many who are (willfully) ignorant of what can happen when it takes hold in your community because many eschew real news.  If you or anyone in your household gets the virus then you have to quarantine which is when everyone in the house has to stay inside all the time, masks must be worn in the house all the time, all surfaces near the infected person must be cleaned all the time, the infected person needs their own separate room with no contact with anyone in the house, and supplies have to be brought in by an outside person and left at your door.  In the often crowded Mexican households, these measures will be very hard to take, making the spread of CV even more likely than usual.  

I followed the news from Italy from the get-go because I had been planning a trip there.  Their situation mushroomed exponentially.  I was shocked reading about it getting so much worse - 20% more deaths every single day.  I read stories from Italians living in the affected area who spoke fluent English, and have seen videos of Italians walking through their local hospital while narrating in English.  It was shocking.  The hospitals were so crowded that the waiting rooms on the first floor were not only crowded with beds and stretchers, but many patients were actually lying on the floor waiting to be seen.  Churches were empty of people but full of coffins.  The dead bodies were piling up so fast in the hospitals that the morgues were also filled and huge freezer trucks had to be called in just to store the dead bodies until burial without any funeral or ceremony.  (And Americans worry about not going to a normal church service???)  Similar situation in NYC where freezer trucks were brought in to store dead bodies - one had a freezer malfunction and the truck sat in some neighborhood until the stench of rotting bodies alerted the neighbors to the horror.  Mass graves have been dug in an isolated park on an island near NYC filled up with stacks and rows of coffins.  Mass burials in Brazil as well.

The message from the Italians was that this is worse than you imagine and you must take all precautions so it doesn't happen to you.  I will take their first hand word for that.

These situations went on for around 2 months before the death rate even began to plateau.  That's a good sign but it does not mean we are out of the woods!  CV is far worse than the ordinary flu, contrary to the party line.  And it could happen to YOU!  Opening things up too early with too few limitations puts everyone in danger of the second wave of CV which experts are expecting later on.

Better to be safe than sorry.  An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.  Hindsight is cheap.  Foresight is golden.  Stay safe and be well.

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I read information posted by a surgeon regarding masks that the virus molecule is so small an N95 mask doesn't even work and the masks and bandanas people are wearing are basically a breeding ground for all types of bacteria and virus because of the humid atmosphere of a mask.  The whole idea of isolating the entire population in the first place I think was wrong.  You isolate the vulnerable and let the rest go on about business.  I guess it is too late for that now.  It is/was inevitable that once restrictions were loosened that this would happen.  So, take your own precautions as what you personally deem necessary.

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The Dra. quoted is highly reputable and any information coming from her as a source can be relied on.

Much as I would love to go out and have a meal with friends, I'm staying  home other than quick food shopping trips.  We all have to decide for ourselves just what we are going to do to take care of ourselves - no one else has as much vested in us staying healthy, as we do personally.

 

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You can read about the specifics of the Italian death toll here:  https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_21_May_2020.pdf

Quote

Mean age of patients dying for SARS-CoV-2 infection was 80 years (median 81, range 0-100, IQR 74 -87). Women were 12,615 (40.6%). Figure 1 shows that median age of patients dying for SARS-CoV-2 infection was about than 20 years higher as compared with the national sample diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection (median age 62 years). Figure 2 shows the absolute number of deaths by age group. Women dying for SARS-CoV-2 infection had an older age than men (median age women 85 - median age men 79)....

3. Pre-existing conditions Table 1 presents most common comorbidities diagnosed before SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data on diseases were based on chart review and was available on 3,032 patients dying in-hospital for whom it was possible to analyse clinic charts. Mean number of diseases was 3.2 (median 3, SD 1.9). Overall, 4.1% of the sample presented with a no comorbidities, 15.0% with a single comorbidity, 21.4% with 2, and 59.6% with 3 or more. Before hospitalization, 23% of SARS-CoV-2 positive deceased patients followed ACE-inhibitor therapy and 16% angiotensin receptor blockers-ARBs therapy. This information can be underestimated because data on drug treatment before admission were not always described in the chart....

Figure 4 shows, for SARS-CoV-2 positive deceased patients, the median times, in days, from the onset of symptoms to death (11 days), from the onset of symptoms to hospitalization (5 days) and from hospitalization to death (6 days). The time from hospitalization to death was 4 days longer in those who were transferred to intensive care than those who were not transferred (9 days vs. 5 days).

Those median age figures I find pretty astounding.

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9 minutes ago, ezpz said:

Here is an update on the latest outcome of CV in Sweden, not the rosy scenario some believe it was (BTW all major subscription outlets offer free coverage of CV news around the world):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/did-sweden-make-the-right-call-on-limiting-its-lockdown/2020/05/18/7ac732ac-96d9-11ea-91d7-cf4423d47683_story.html

Opinion from a source I don't find either credible or trustworthy.

A more balanced source and report IMO:

https://www.ft.com/content/a2b4c18c-a5e8-4edc-8047-ade4a82a548d

Quote

Sweden and Mr Tegnell are under the global spotlight as their response to the pandemic has made them a global outlier. Primary and secondary schools, restaurants, cafés and shops are mostly open as normal in Sweden, with health authorities relying on voluntary social distancing and people opting to work from home. Schools for over-16s and universities are closed and gatherings of more than 50 people are banned, but it is still the most relaxed approach of any EU country...


Mr Tegnell said it would take about one to two years to know whose strategy had worked best and at what cost to society. He stressed that Sweden’s approach was to look at the “wide public health matter” in which an important consideration was that “people should be able to keep a reasonably normal life”....


Public trust in Sweden’s public health agency has increased during the crisis, which Mr Tegnell in part attributed to his efforts to communicate openly, “answering the same questions hundreds of times”. He said he found the attention on himself “rather absurd”, such as his daughters “laughing hilariously” about a fashion magazine analysing his dress sense. Mr Tegnell argued that “nothing [to do with lockdowns] had a scientific basis”, particularly decisions to close schools, because there was no evidence that children were a major cause of transmission. He believes European leaders, fearful that their health systems would be overwhelmed, felt they needed to copy China’s approach, the first country to lock down because of the disease....

“It’s a big mistake to sit down and say ‘we should just wait for a vaccine’. It will take much longer than we think. And in the end, we don’t know how good a vaccine it will be. It’s another reason to have a sustainable policy in place.” Sweden’s approach has been to have a strategy that could last for months, if not years, without the need for big changes. That contrasts with nearly all other European countries, which are grappling with how to reopen their societies without sparking an increase in transmission.

Towards the end of this piece it is noted that Sweden sees it failed to protect nursing home patients adequately and that group, as is true for much of Europe in general, accounts for a relatively high percentage of the deaths.  Current death rate 3,240 out of 10.2 million or 0.32 percent.

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I am also staying in until June 27 th, when I am having my 80 th birthday party, hopefully we will be in good shape then but if not will have a belated birthday party..

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1 hour ago, Mainecoons said:

Best bet:  Stay at home on the weekends and popular Mexican holidays.  That way you don't have to worry about what they are doing and you are focused on your own protection.

Curious as to where you went for groceries since I believe WalMart and Soriana are enforcing the face mask rule.

 

At Soriana yesterday everyone had masks but quite a few wore them below the nose or just around the neck. The latter included a young father pushing a baby stroller who put on the mask only after I hesitated to pass him, and he removed it after I went by. Store employees said nothing to him or to others doing the same. 

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Just now, rckrckr said:

At Soriana yesterday everyone had masks but quite a few wore them below the nose or just around the neck. The latter included a young father pushing a baby stroller who put on the mask only after I hesitated to pass him, and he removed it after I went by. Store employees said nothing to him or to others doing the same. 

The moral of the story is if that is beyond your risk tolerance level don't go there. You'll never get others to do as you wish. You can only control you so if you accept that then find alternative ways to get what you need. I bet if you asked nicely there would be more than one board member willing to help. Stick with what you are comfortable with and get creative. Suerte.

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We've shifted our shopping to the least busy times during the week when it is easiest to keep one's distance.   Seems to work very well at this point.

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16 minutes ago, pappysmarket said:

The moral of the story is if that is beyond your risk tolerance level don't go there. You'll never get others to do as you wish. You can only control you so if you accept that then find alternative ways to get what you need. I bet if you asked nicely there would be more than one board member willing to help. Stick with what you are comfortable with and get creative. Suerte.

What's that old saw about, "Never try to teach a pig how to sing.  It is a waste of time and it annoys the pig."


:D 

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Last night we were awaken by a loud, singing group at 2:30 am and the loud music and singing partyers kept going until sunrise. We could not determine where it was coming from but living in Chapala Haciendas it was close enough to awaken us.  I knew at that moment that things are probably going to get alot worse here very soon. Feels like sitting on a beach watching the sea and knowing a tsunami is on its way. Stay safe everyone.

 

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The OP said: "Lakeside friends, this is being circulated by email and on Facebook. In case anyone has missed seeing it:"

I would suggest that you have all the rights of a free country to get your "news" wherever you want, however you are not doing anyone any favors by spreading such dreck here. This is exactly why I do not do FB, Twitter or any other of what they call Social Media. There is so much FAKE NEWS being spread around like manure on a farm that much of the younger generation does not have a clue about reality. So sad...and these are the ones that will be electing our politicians in the future!

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2 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

You can read about the specifics of the Italian death toll here:  https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_21_May_2020.pdf

Those median age figures I find pretty astounding.

I think one of the reasons (but not the only) that the death rates for the 80+ age range are  so high is that so many of them are in nursing homes. Any kind of close, regular contact, whether it's congregate living, working in meat packing plants, or riding the subway is a natural breeding ground for covid-19. 

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Bingo.

80% of all Covid-19 deaths here in the RGV have been in nursing homes and 3 in particular.

 

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