Jump to content
Chapala.com Webboard
Sign in to follow this  
ezpz

CV UPDATES FOR MEXICO & DEVELOPING WORLD

Recommended Posts

I strongly sense that those who favor The Economy over Saving Lives simply are not well informed of the realities of the situation.  It's so easy to imagine "it can't happen here, or to me."  Yes, people are suffering economically, but they will be suffering much more with death spreading all around them as will happen without the precautions.  In the first world countries, the government helps the people, least of all in the US.  Low government as we have here in MX is a sign of a 3rd world country without a decent standard of living for everyone.  We gringos are the rich ones here and we are obligated to help financially, but more on that in another thread.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-brazil-killing-young-developing-world/2020/05/22/f76d83e8-99e9-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most

CV deaths keep going up in MX; Jalisco still on the low side, roughly equal to Yucatan and only slightly more than Guanajuato or Oaxaca - states with far smaller populations.  We are doing well here because of the strict precautions of Alfaro who has stated he is following the guidance of the U de G.  Good for him and us.  This is no time to slack off.  I hope Moy keeps the safety blockades up.  Everyone I have talked to around here supports them.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-deaths-hit-new-daily-record-of-479/

The issue is not staying in or going out.  It is what has to be done to keep the hospitals able to function.  Remember, if they are packed with CV patients, a tragedy in itself, they can't care for "normal" medical emergencies.   Hospitals are on the brink of collapse in Acapulco:

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/acapulco-hospitals-on-point-of-collapse-mayor/

Here is how local people in Yucatan are handling the crisis:

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/in-200-communities-no-one-comes-or-goes/

San Miguel is also planning to put up blockades to outsiders as they begin to reopen some businesses with strict limitations and for locals only.  The Cancun area as well as Los Cabos have postponed their openings indefinitely until strict certification of sanitation can be accomplished to benefit both the workers and the travelers who will be quite concerned about travel safety.

 

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And Chapala-Jocotepec-Tuexcueca still zero cases.     

Ixtlahuacan 1 case active and 1 death. Tizapan el Alto 5 reported 4 recovered. Poncitlan 14 active, 1 death, 3 recovered. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just as strongly think those who think this problem will be solved by lock downs simply are not well informed of the realities of anything, let alone science or sociology.

The hospitals in this area are mostly empty.  Co-opting hospitals for CV has caused other important surgeries to be denied and people have died from that and continue to do so.  Our maid's husband was denied treatment for cancer because of this and it will probably cost him his life.

Frankly a CV patient is probably far better off at home with the same available medications and oxygen than in a hospital.  They can easily kill you with one of their ventilators.

Funny how most places seem to be coping without blockades that tie up traffic for hours, disrupt vital commerce and resupply and pour tons of vehicle pollutants into the air..  Maybe because they recognize this doesn't work.  Since somewhere between 30 and 70 percent are asymptomatic or so mild they are not running a temperature it is like trying to find a needle in the haystack. 

Bad science and worse policy.  

The only thing that is going to work is personal protection and avoiding large gatherings, herd immunity initially and vaccines much further down the road.  It is foolish to think one little area can be isolated from it by illegally blocking the roads and threatening restaurants not to serve outsiders.   Delivery people and tradesmen are coming in here in substantial numbers daily.  The simple law of averages says there will be the asymptomatic and the carriers among them.  It WILL happen here if it hasn't already.  It is widely known that Mexico is detecting only a fraction of the cases.

Countries focusing on social distancing and avoiding large gatherings while allowing commerce to continue are outperforming the lock downers because they are not impoverishing and traumatizing their populations.  That is the growing lesson being learned.

People are going to die from this pandemic just like all the rest.  We are a long way from the casualty count of most of those, for example 1957.  Yes, the unhealthy and old are going to die a lot more than the rest.  That means a higher death rate in countries with poor public health like this one.  We as a species are paying the price for gross overpopulation and so much international travel and commerce that local infections quickly spread world wide.

And like it or not this lock down is going to end.  They are demonstrating against it in GDL and the unrest is growing world wide.  There's a lot of token "regulating" going on locally that is much more about saving political face than saving lives.  From the get go the lockdown has been widely ignored by the Mexicans.  Everyone I know has had no problem getting "non essential" services and supplies all along.  Lot's of business going on behind those closed doors.

The young are by and large ignoring it here and around the world.  Why not since for the most of them they are more likely to die from getting hit by lightning.

The fearful old folks can keep beating the drum for lock down but it is going away.  It is time to focus on personal responsibility for taking care of ones own health.  Those who want to remain in lock down personally that is your choice.  

Mostly Lost, I don't see Jocotepec blocking the roads or turning people away.  Seems like most everything is open there, too and has been for a while.  Is there an epidemic there?

Really good piece in The Guardian here:  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/13/people-work-lockdown-herd-immunity-debate-coronavirus

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, MC, how is this not political- the very thing you objected to in Computer Guy's posts? Or is it only political if it runs afoul of your personal politics? I really don't get it. I personally think the whole Lock Down vs. The Economy is a moral question. 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Guardian piece:

Quote

The trickle is starting. Spain, Austria, Italy, China, possibly Germany and the US will this week begin, however hesitantly, the great return to work. As others hold back and some may even toughen lockdowns, the result will be the most extraordinary mass experiment in history.

The outcome should go some way to settle the central argument of coronavirus policy, of lockdown and suppression v mitigation and herd immunity. It will also condition a later political blame game, who was right and who was wrong.

In this experiment, only one thing should matter: the evidence. It is the lack of it that has clearly determined the wide diversity in policy responses in different countries. We see a potentially fatal disease, Covid-19, of unusual infectiousness. Yet we have no idea how infectious, because lack of testing means we cannot tell if vast numbers of people have it to some degree, or just a few. The science disagrees. We have no idea if fatality is the outcome for 5% of victims, or 1%, or 0.3% – and therefore how drastic should be the response.

Statistics are in chaos. Death “rates” lag behind deaths. Deaths are confused with “hospital deaths”. Headlines highlight “most cases per nation” or “most deaths per nation”, not deaths per million. Yet we are at the mercy of these statistics. They are the raw material of the modellers, and their models are the sacred entrails into which policymakers peer each day, to see what level of lockdown to impose on their people.

Not surprisingly, science is giving way to value judgments. Authoritarian regimes are diverging from libertarian ones. Countries in total lockdown (Spain and France) are compared with countries practising social distancing (Sweden and Korea) and those such as Brazil, which does none of those things. As David McCoy said in the Guardian last week, we simply don’t have models that balance “the direct, visible and dramatic harms of Covid-19 with the more indirect, chronic and hidden social and economic harms of lockdown”.

I assume that hard evidence will now start to emerge. There will be a wide comparative spectrum, of outliers and controls. We should learn to what degree were face masks and two-metre separation efficacious, as against mass isolation and economic collapse. So far, such evidence is in desperately short supply. Soon it will be on the ground, in the world’s factories and on its pavements.

Economics has taken a terrible battering this last month, because it is thought to put “money before lives”. But all options cost lives, which is why political judgment has moved to centre stage. Businesses are ruined, dreams shattered, people die. As in the conundrum of the swerving driver, do you avoid one death now, but is it at the cost of five down the road?

The cliche is true. Only time will tell, but that time starts now. The task is to scrutinise the evidence and let it tell the truth, not just the truth we want it to tell.

 Simon Jenkins is a Guardian columnist

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, kam said:

Okay, MC, how is this not political- the very thing you objected to in Computer Guy's posts? Or is it only political if it runs afoul of your personal politics? I really don't get it. I personally think the whole Lock Down vs. The Economy is a moral question. 

There you go again.  How IS this political?  You seem quite confused as to what "political" is.  If you think my response is political than the OP is also political.

Neither are.  This is a policy debate and it is a policy that vitally affects all of us, expat and Mexican alike.  

Why don't you join the discussion instead of trying to censor one side of it?

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think Jocotepec on a normal weekend receives 20-30 thousand Tapatios.  

15 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

 

Mostly Lost, I don't see Jocotepec blocking the roads or turning people away.  Seems like most everything is open there, too and has been for a while.  Is there an epidemic there?

 

 

I don't think Jocotepec on a normal weekend receives 20-30 thousand Tapatios. The major draws in that municipio are Piedra Barrenada and spas at San Juan Cosala which have been closed so basically not a good comparison. Plus the vast majority for those areas enter by way of Chapala.

Add Mazamitla with entry roadblocks zero cases. On a normal weekend thousands of tourists from Sayula, Jiquilcapan Ciudad Guzman, and GDL. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mazamitla is now opened up, yes?  Upsurge in cases there?

I'm referring to Jocotepec municipio, apologies for not being clear about that.

Who do you think owns all those townhouses in and around Joco?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I keep hearing “herd immunity” as one of the answers to this developing problem. We can see that Sweden which has no lockdown ineffect has a 7.3% population antibody present. You need 70-90 % to have herd immunity. Clearly Sweden’s model is not the answer either

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mainecoons said:

Mazamitla is now opened up, yes?  Upsurge in cases there?

I'm referring to Jocotepec municipio, apologies for not being clear about that.

Who do you think owns all those townhouses in and around Joco?

 

When did mazamitla open? Upsurge in cases take 7-15 days to present.  Look at the post Mothers day and 5 de mayo puente in the GDL area ...numbers are now surging. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surging?

The population of GDL is something like 6 million.  I'll let you do the math but you gotta do a lot of surging to make a dent in 6 million.

Are you suggesting the lock down has been widely ignored there?  That's probably a pretty good guess.  Just like here.

I'm thinking something like 8 days for Mazamitla.  Gestation period is 4-10 days, we should be seeing the results soon.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is also posted under MX General, very good article with a key section on MX as part of the Latin America update:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-new-infections-show-virus-accelerating-across-latin-america/

Economies can continue to operate in lockdown IMHO.     Gov'ts simply need to be prepared to adjust and support it for as long as needed.      Deficits be damned, because when the whole world is in the same situation, it doesn't really matter, does it?    They are typically a relative more than absolute, determinant and gauge, and an outgoing tide, lowers all boats.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Jreboll said:

I keep hearing “herd immunity” as one of the answers to this developing problem. We can see that Sweden which has no lockdown ineffect has a 7.3% population antibody present. You need 70-90 % to have herd immunity. Clearly Sweden’s model is not the answer either

There's a lot of debate over that number too.  How do you explain  Sweden's daily new cases have leveled out?  

You do understand the point we are not nearly as isolated as some want to think?

There seems to be as much diversity of opinion about herd immunity as the rest of the science.  It sure isn't settled.

Go Solar that would require an established social safety net that simply doesn't exist here or pretty much anywhere in Latin America.  You don't create one of those overnight.  On top of that half the economy here is informal cash only, impossible to document let alone support.  

Mexico is definitely up the creek without a paddle in that department.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You have to work with what you got. What works in Sweden will not work in many other countries.  The science of herd immunity is very well studied and there’s no diversity of opinion. Swedes have paid a heavy price for their experiment. See how the Chinese have made remarkable progress:

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

Surging?

The population of GDL is something like 6 million.  I'll let you do the math but you gotta do a lot of surging to make a dent in 6 million.

Are you suggesting the lock down has been widely ignored there?  That's probably a pretty good guess.  Just like here.

I'm thinking something like 8 days for Mazamitla.  Gestation period is 4-10 days, we should be seeing the results soon.

 

 

All my relatives in GDL are respecting stay at home. that's over 25 people. All upper middle class. All are self employed including 2 doctors. Both because of age are at home. Their businesses are closed. 

Actually it can be up to 15 days for symptoms to present in some people. 

A surge is when the number of confirmed cases increase exponentially.  If you follow the news ....in GDL that occurred about 10 days after the 2 holidays. Even the govt. believes this is the main cause.  Last death a 104 year old grandma who's family visited for Mothers day. So surge YES   

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Swedes seem happy with it or they would go into lock down.  One of the things they've done right is place strong focus on protecting the elderly in general and those in nursing homes in particular.  That is called focusing the effort where the majority of the casualties occur.

Sorry but I don't believe anything from China.  They are the perps here.  

I'll leave it at that.  Good discussion.  I'm with the Guardian guy, we will see very shortly which strategy is the best.  I personally think we are in one of those situations where the choice comes down to the "lesser of two evils."  Lotta folks going to die from this one regardless of what path is taken.

 

 

  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

The Swedes seem happy with it or they would go into lock down.  One of the things they've done right is place strong focus on protecting the elderly in general and those in nursing homes in particular.  That is called focusing the effort where the majority of the casualties occur.

Sorry but I don't believe anything from China.  They are the perps here.  

I'll leave it at that.  Good discussion.  I'm with the Guardian guy, we will see very shortly which strategy is the best.  I personally think we are in one of those situations where the choice comes down to the "lesser of two evils."  Lotta folks going to die from this one regardless of what path is taken.

 

 

We agree on that

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mainecoons said:

Sorry but I don't believe anything from China.  They are the perps here.  

Political

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

Sorry but I don't believe anything from China.  They are the perps here. 

What's this mumbo jumbo about?

In the eyes of many people, China at least did something early to control the spread.

 

  • Like 4
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Lily H said:

What's this mumbo jumbo about?

In the eyes of many people, China at least did something early to control the spread.

 

Yeah  They sent plane loads of infected people all over the world.  Worked great. Now who has the best economy?...One guess...

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mudgirl said:

Political

No, they are the perps.  It started there, they withheld information at a critical time, they banned internal flights from Wuhan and did nothing about international flights.

They are the perps.  Period.  Nothing to do with politics, it is just how they operate. 

It is going to prove to be a big mistake on their part.  Whole lotta countries and courts out for a piece of their hide.  :D 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Neither you nor I have any real knowledge of where this virus came from. For all we know, it could have been introduced there by some foreign agents. And the US allowed a planeful of people to enter the US after they had been informed that there was a serious virus spreading like wildfire. You conveniently neglect to put any blame there.

 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the U.S. is also guilty of deporting people known to have tested positive for CV to Mexico.

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, mudgirl said:

Neither you nor I have any real knowledge of where this virus came from. For all we know, it could have been introduced there by some foreign agents. And the US allowed a planeful of people to enter the US after they had been informed that there was a serious virus spreading like wildfire. You conveniently neglect to put any blame there.

 

You or I may not know, however China, and every other countries experts do know. This virus originated in China.  In the city of Wuhan. Exactly how is still up for debate.  

Every country in the world allowed planes from China because China and the world Health Organization were telling the world that the virus  was not a threat and was not transferable person to person.  So basically every country in the world is to blame, but China no? 

The real question on who is to blame will be answered in time. What is public knowledge is China halted internal flights from Wuhan to other cities in China, while allowing flights from Wuhan to other countries while knowing the virus did transfer from person to person. 

As Mr Spock would say " your observations and conclusions are simply not logical"

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, alex45920 said:

And the U.S. is also guilty of deporting people known to have tested positive for CV to Mexico.

 

Doubtful, however Mexico is guilty of deporting untested  people to Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Are you trying to make a political point?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...