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It is raining again in Ajijic, looks like it is going to be all day and night according to weather forecasters So maybe the rainy season is starting early I hope...

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It is too early. I noticed that the storm that brought rain/hail we got Tuesday came from the north. I think the rainy season storms come from the east.  

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If I remember correctly, Maincoons is an expert on the subject of when the rainy season usually starts. I would love to hear from him what he thinks is happening this year and when he thinks the rainy season might start this year.

I started to use my A/C and evaporative cooler, for short periods one or two days this year and I thought that I would probably need same or and more every day until mid June. I how wrong I was. This is beautiful weather so far this May 

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Sadly the date happyjillin posted is what most all the charts would say  plus or minus a day or week and is a very good guess.  I'm just hoping something goes wonderfully wrong this year and get all kinds of extra rain early this year. :) 

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You can see from this chart that we usually have rain in May.

Rainfall History (inches)

   2020  2019  2018  2017  2016  2015  2014  2013  2012  2011
                     
 Total  3.52
 (as of 5/7/20)
 26.68  32.24  30.29  40.03  41.13  31.15  28.52  29.33  32.84
                     
 January  0.64  0.20  0.09  0.00  0.23  0.03  0.00  2.28  0.17  0.00
 February  0.93  0.01  0.72  0.06  0.33  0.74  0.00  0.00  3.31  0.00
 March  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.08  0.16  3.73  0.01  0.00  0.01  0.00
 April  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.14  0.03  0.00  0.00  0.01  0.03
 May  1.95  0.01  3.90  0.13  1.90  3.48  1.73  0.79  0.36  0.00
 June    3.52  6.45  4
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5 minutes ago, ibarra said:

Historically speaking, I believe we almost always have a couple of days of rain about a month before the season actually begins. 

Very true.  We normally would also have a day or a few hours of rain each month, but it has been unusually dry this season.  The national forecast has said there will be heavier rains this year, but no mention on if they will start early.  As for the last coupla days, this is just a system passing through.  After tomorrow, the weather apps are showing 0% chance of rain through mid month.  Enjoy while we can! 

 

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1 hour ago, donenrique said:

Very true.  We normally would also have a day or a few hours of rain each month, but it has been unusually dry this season.  The national forecast has said there will be heavier rains this year, but no mention on if they will start early.  As for the last coupla days, this is just a system passing through.  After tomorrow, the weather apps are showing 0% chance of rain through mid month.  Enjoy while we can! 

 

According to the chart above it has not been unusually dry this year. Looking at monthly rainfall for previous years it also isn't unusually dry for this season.

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6 hours ago, artsnob said:

It is raining again in Ajijic, looks like it is going to be all day and night according to weather forecasters So maybe the rainy season is starting early I hope...

Guad TV news this a.m. said will rain again tonight (Thursday) and then go back to "normal".  Forecast for Colima City today was 35C and blazing sun.  So enjoy it while you can but don't get your hopes up too high just yet.

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I'm happy it's not snow like the NE of the US is supposed to be getting. LOL

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1 hour ago, Natasha said:

Guad TV news this a.m. said will rain again tonight (Thursday) and then go back to "normal".  Forecast for Colima City today was 35C and blazing sun.  So enjoy it while you can but don't get your hopes up too high just yet.

Remember that Guadalajara has a very different climate than our micro climate around the lake. The eastern side of the lake has a different micro climate than the west side of the lake The Conagua forecasts are for Guadalajara. All the US weather websites extrapolate the Chapala forecast from the Guadalajara airport forecast.  Very often it is pouring in Ciudad Guzman (south of the lake), and in Guadalajara (north of the lake) and we are under blue skies. The GDL TV weather people  just repeat the Conagua forecasts. They, unlike up north, are not meteorologists. 

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A bit of a sunset in El Chante and a rainbow going up from Mt. Garcia. No rain yet today. The sooner it starts the better. As is normal rain varies greatly from ´place to place on the north shore. Fairly dry towards Jocotepec but a lot of rain in the Ajijic area.

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I'm in upper west Ajijic and I had a very light sprinkling of rain. Too little to measure around sunset. We just get more later tonight. Here's hoping :) 

Edit: it's perhaps15 minutes later. Well it is turning into rain. Not much yet, in fact the Ajijic weather page still doesn't show any rain yet.

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No rain yesterday or last night near Jocotepec.

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It amazes me that we have these same exact 'conversations' every single year at this time.  I have been here 14 years and except for a couple of years, we have always gotten these 'teasers' at this time of year.  Are we all so old that our memories are failing us! 😅👵👴

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21 minutes ago, CalGal said:

It amazes me that we have these same exact 'conversations' every single year at this time.  I have been here 14 years and except for a couple of years, we have always gotten these 'teasers' at this time of year.  Are we all so old that our memories are failing us! 😅👵👴

Exactly.  20 plus years here and feel the same.

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18 hours ago, Mostlylost said:

Remember that Guadalajara has a very different climate than our micro climate around the lake. The eastern side of the lake has a different micro climate than the west side of the lake The Conagua forecasts are for Guadalajara. All the US weather websites extrapolate the Chapala forecast from the Guadalajara airport forecast.  Very often it is pouring in Ciudad Guzman (south of the lake), and in Guadalajara (north of the lake) and we are under blue skies. The GDL TV weather people  just repeat the Conagua forecasts. They, unlike up north, are not meteorologists. 

Excuse my right to disagree.... and of course I know things can be different from as little distance as Riberas to Mirasol or less.  But 20+ years of Guad Chanel 4 news in a.m. (and sometimes more often) with good meteorologists (except for morning gal) with satellite maps and forecasts, what that news says is close enough for us!  Saturday a.m.'s Joe Gonzalez goes into detail with all the satellite towns ---- Chapala, Mazamitla, etc. -- and even gives the height of the waves on the west coast (PV etc).

FYI this morning the bottom line streamer said "experts say the recent rains are NOT connected to the rainy season".

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Natasha, I haven'r been here quite as long as you have, but almost.  It seems like this discussion occurs every year. As you so clearly stated, this isn't the rainy season. Everyone who has doubts, check the stats!

https://focusonmexico.com/seasons-temperatures/

I pick June 13! I pick it every year. Guess what? Sometimes I am correct. About every 5 or 6 years or so!

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Looking at the rain statistics on the Ajijic weather station, which shows ten years of rain data, it shows that we have had more rain during the first 7 days of the month of May than all but two Mays have had for the whole month of May, during the past 10 years.

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14 minutes ago, NLU said:

Natasha, I haven'r been here quite as long as you have, but almost.  It seems like this discussion occurs every year. As you so clearly stated, this isn't the rainy season. Everyone who has doubts, check the stats!

https://focusonmexico.com/seasons-temperatures/

I pick June 13! I pick it every year. Guess what? Sometimes I am correct. About every 5 or 6 years or so!

Yes, June 13th at 11 pm.

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