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gulirakhimova

will corona kill my plans?

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Hey there - I hope you all are well and healthy!

I have a trip planned for later this year, late September into early October. I’m planning to travel to England & France, from the US. What are we thinking? Should I start thinking of canceling this trip? Or still too early to panic? I’m not normally indecisive, but hoping for a consensus opinion to help make my decision. I really, really want to take this trip.

Thanks for your help!

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That's a really tough question.  I see this morning the folks up north think they'll have a vaccine by the end of the year or shortly thereafter.  I've also read they expect a resurgence in the fall and winter.  Personally speaking in our house we do not think the disruption will be over for this year and we are modifying or canceling all travel plans until next year.  We may drive back to the U.S. for some RV travel in the southwest if it looks like we can do some RV camping.

We had a more extensive RV trip planned for those months and have decided things will still be too unsettled so we've delayed than one indefinitely.

 

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I think the basic question is, are you very healthy, with NO underlying problems. That would be my first consideration. If not, I would not think about it any further. Then, what would you do if you got the virus during your travels? Would wherever you are be able to handle it? Lots to consider.

 

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5 hours ago, gulirakhimova said:

 

I have a trip planned for later this year, late September into early Octpber. I’m planning to travel to England & France, from the US. What are we thinking? Should I start thinking of canceling this trip?

 

I think you should be reading more valid news sites (BBC for example) that go into depth on questions like what will air travel be in the foreseeable future, how  hotels and resorts, tour groups etc.  think they will be handling things IF travel has resumed.  At this point crystal balls will not answer your questions, and all the opinions in the world one way or the other are just that.... hopeful or skeptical opinions.  

The answer nobody knows if anything travel-related will have returned to normal by then, nor can they say whether it will safe enough or not.

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You should also consider all the countries have been shut down and it will take some time for them to recover and be"open for business".

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57 minutes ago, 4fingersfreddy said:

??

Agree with Natasha. the English and European media have been much more factual and less hysterical in their coverage than the U.S. media which politicizes and sensationalizes practically everything these days.  I find myself ignoring all of them whether they agree with my politics or not.  

I just can't visualize things getting anywhere near normal by September/October.  All that is going on now is the disease is being temporarily suppressed by draconian lock downs which really can't continue near long enough for a vaccine to be developed, tested, manufactured and widely used.  The news I saw this morning is the best case scenario for having a vaccine is the end of the year/early next year.  Then it has to be applied in massive numbers to provide the required herd immunity.  Realistically we're looking at 10 months and that is best case.

When the lock downs come off long before then the disease will become more active again.  We're beginning to see reports of that. 

There are only two ways to run the course:  herd immunity via infection and for most all, recovery.  Or a vaccine that produces same without near the loss of life that mother nature's approach has.    

I can't believe anyone seriously thinks the economic damage just a couple months of this policy has created can be tolerated for another 10  months.  That is just not logical.  Even the countries with a serious safety net are going to run out of money and borrowing capacity.  In a country like this that has none to speak of, people are going to starve in large numbers unless they take matters into their own hands. 

It wouldn't be the first time for that in Mexico, not by a long shot.

 

 

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Friends in both England and Italy (not in the hard-hit north) still report many hospitalizations among people they know, and countries that are not even close to being "open".

Maybe what we can all take away from this is that it is time to enjoy our homes, our families, and our communities. We have pretty much spoiled the world with our need to seek fun and adventure through travel. The cost to the planet has been tremendous. Please consider that when making or canceling plans.

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I don' t know why some people bring up this boogie bear about mass starvation. It can' t happen, it will never happen in a society like Mexico. It can only happen in a society which targets the 'have nots' as unworthy of help or even religious grace, the cause of all the problems, and worthy of extermination.

Humans can live 6 minutes without air ( which is naturally clearing and becoming more lifegiving), 6 days without water (again becoming cleaner and healthier) and six weeks or more ( depending on fat reserves) without food. Processed foods are becoming more and more expensive to import and purchase. People have time and budgets for slow foods and home grown bartered foods.

Mexicans have a unique skill of being able to call together family for a communal type existence, so effective that they often have resources to share with those less fortunate. Many well educated Mexicans I have met feel genuine sorrow for retirees, or the rare Mexican, who have no immediate family to share meals with, laugh with babies, tell tall tales, moralize the young, all the precious things they are missing out on family life. They will survive. It is our Northern cultures which will implode and vanish. It was always a consumerist fiction anyways.

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U.S. citizens (including expats) are not so far removed from the Mexican model of families staying close and helping one another: maybe 2 generations at most. It started turning into what it is now when the children of (usually) large farm families left for jobs in the big cities.  In reality, it was a simple decision for survival.  Even with the best intentions, it is hard to see how being together in itself will ensure survival of Mexican families where the wage earners have lost their jobs.  This situation we are living in is unprecidented in our lifetimes and will create more hardship than any of us have seen...anywhere.

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I agree with gringal. I am very worried about those who are forced to live from day to day living off that they can earn that week. There are so many workers and their families who live off the weekly check and don't have any savings. I think that is why so many of us are paying our maids even they are not allowed to show up work.

Here's hoping that the quarantine ends soon (not too soon, but soon.) 

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Remittances from Mexican Americans to friends and family in Mexico are at an all time high.

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On 5/5/2020 at 2:07 PM, CHILLIN said:

Remittances from Mexican Americans to friends and family in Mexico are at an all time high.

Also from illegals to family.

 

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On 5/5/2020 at 2:07 PM, CHILLIN said:

Remittances from Mexican Americans to friends and family in Mexico are at an all time high.

I think the ex rate plays into that equation..but yes an all time high..given that MA must also being laid off the increase is a bit surprising 

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Just now, Upfront said:

not at all surprising to me. Mexican families take care of each other

My ex-landlord where I had a storefront asked me one day if my adult children sent me money. She was really surprised to find out that they didn't. It's traditional in Mexico- not only don't the kids pack Mom and Dad off to an assisted living home, it's their understood obligation to help financially support their parents, as their parents supported them.

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My thoughts are that there are a "significant" number of the SILENT majority (like you and me) that are better off than their GEN X kids and have a better pension and investments than they are likely to achieve  .

Whilst many of "us" may have chosen to come south of the border for financial consideration, a considerable number were not so stressed. And if what I hear from my Realtor is correct, the #1 reason for folks returning NOB is HEALTH.( I have better coverage NOB than I do here)..........and #2. Family considerations............... and #3??

A couple of my less wealthy friends returned NOB and qualified for Section 8 housing and living in "grand" style and use Mediaid and other benefits. The downside of course is THE WEATHER . Just different strokes for different folks, not one size fits all..

And  similarly  many Mexicans who had have gone NOB for financial  reason have decided to return South for the same basic reasons...have families here, have a good retirement/investment  package and the weather. Why do some "experts" come up with so many complicated reasons from THEM doing something different to US!!!!!

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Gulirak , I am from France and I am in contact with family members daily.  no one can tell you what wil lhappen. The state of emergency has been extended until July which means the government reserve the right to tell people to stay home, shut down travel and borders until July so far.

. They are implementing  a slow return to work in the red zones in the east and Paris and less restrictivein the green zone where there are less cases and no one knows what will happen. The government is closely monitering  new cases and death and will decide what to do next.

. Unless you have a need to go to France  at that time ,postpone or cancel the trip until you know what will happen. So far it is not looking butpeople have towork  so they are reopenng the schools so that parents can go to work and are watching for a second wave... I sure woud not make plans for this fall.

Also you are from a country that has the corona virus so what is the need to go and export it again. So far travelling has proven that it is the best way to contaminate others Stay put until this thing is over.. Right now the Parisians with second homes are not welcome in the towns where they have a second home and are fined if they are found to be going there and you are thinking of travelling in September or October coming from a country that has a high contagion rate.. stay away please no one needs more contamination.

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On 5/4/2020 at 4:32 AM, gulirakhimova said:

Hey there - I hope you all are well and healthy!

I have a trip planned for later this year, late September into early October. I’m planning to travel to England & France, from the US. What are we thinking? Should I start thinking of canceling this trip? Or still too early to panic? I’m not normally indecisive, but hoping for a consensus opinion to help make my decision. I really, really want to take this trip.

Thanks for your help!

There is a major difference between panic and using common sense.

My suggestion is to consider what the experts in the medical field say, discount those with financial interest, watch out for people with narcissistic personality disorders, and go with what seems logical.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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On 5/4/2020 at 8:09 AM, Jim Bowie said:

I think the basic question is, are you very healthy, with NO underlying problems. That would be my first consideration. If not, I would not think about it any further. Then, what would you do if you got the virus during your travels? Would wherever you are be able to handle it? Lots to consider.

 

Jim, I understand your logic, but consider this.  I am in Texas now and my neighbors family are here from Vietnam for their wedding.  They were to go home months ago but cannot get flights back because of restrictions on travel.  They have no idea when return is possible.  In the meantime, my neighbors are sooooo tired of Vietnamese food.  He said I just want to eat Whataburgers and fries!

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We are hoping to be semi permanent Lakeside by July, and definitely want to be Lakeside during November elections. Should wave two hit, or who knows what else, my gut tells me it will be safer in Mexico. 

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...Until you have a few years in Mexico maybe forget about a gut feeling involving life there. Many are called, few are chosen to stay permanently. Most of us thought we would but then life happens and you gotta do what you gotta due. Hope you enjoy your new life.

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