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Jim Bowie

Stanford Doctors Calls for Ending Full-Blown Lockdowns

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18 minutes ago, Ferret said:

It has NOT failed. It works and the proof is in the countries who did it and are slowly opening up. https://covid19info.live/

 

That is general data and does not yet reflect what is happening as things reopen.  I posted a link to a very current report on that earlier.

 

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It will fail for two reasons:  First people will only take so much of it.  Second, the virus is still there and will still be there in a month or whatever.  Look how long this has gone on in Spain yet they are now reporting increasing cases with even moderate easing.  

When the conditions of fall and winter return with the result of many people staying inside more and closer to each other it will come back just like the flu.

Flattening the curve is just adding to the time and economic damage.  It was based on a false idea that in time the thing will go away.  No it won't.  If everyone stayed at home for another month and really killed the economy the thing will be there and come back as soon as the lockdown ends.

You can't flatten long enough to give the time needed to develop, make and widely distribute a vaccine.  These things die down naturally as a result of herd immunity if there is no vaccine.  These policies are just delaying herd immunity for which there is no medical substitute in this case.   The young and healthy know their risk is very low and they are making it more plain by the day they've had enough of it.

Time to move on to the right policy, one focused on limiting the deaths in the vulnerable populations.  And also one based on understanding our limits in the face of a big "burp" by nature.

 

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MC, seriously? "Americans and Europeans have had enough of this failed policy".  Lots of polls available when you google. This one 87% of Americans support stay at home. I could have chose from 3 others with the same results. There is a tiny minority of protesters in the US.  Certain political interests and media are trying to make them look mainstream. Not even close.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/04/22/americans-overwhelmingly-support-stay-at-home-restrictions-new-poll-finds/#3cdd78762e12

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Some common sense from the BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-51963486

Yes Sea, seriously.  Don't be misled by media that is censoring the news.  In just the last few days there have been demonstrations in over 20 states.  Here in Mexico we are having no problem whatsoever getting things done.  Local merchants are operating behind closed doors working through contacts via WhatsApp and cell phones. 

This disease is going to run its course whether we like it or not.  Fortunately the real death rate when you factor in all the people who have it, including the asymptomatic, show clearly it is far from the worst pandemic even in modern times.

 

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28 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

These things die down naturally as a result of herd immunity if there is no vaccine.  These policies are just delaying herd immunity for which there is no medical substitute in this case.

You can repeat the words "herd immunity" as much as you like, but there has been no scientific proof thus far, that I have read, that indicates that there is any herd immunity to this virus.

 

19 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

In just the last few days there have been demonstrations in over 20 states.

By a small percentage of the population. 

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33 minutes ago, mudgirl said:

You can repeat the words "herd immunity" as much as you like, but there has been no scientific proof thus far, that I have read, that indicates that there is any herd immunity to this virus.

 

By a small percentage of the population. 

Watch and learn.  There is no herd immunity because there is no vaccine and these unsustainable policies have prevented it being developed.  There are numerous references that this is no different than any other disease, herd immunity comes with either infection or vaccination of sufficient numbers that the spread is halted.

No matter how you want to deny it, these policies cannot go on long enough for a vaccine to be developed, tested, manufactured and distributed to the 60 percent plus of the population needed to develop herd immunity.  In this case it is going to happen the hard way.

Everything starts with a small percentage of the population.  I was around for the start and the culmination of the mass demonstrations against Vietnam that ultimately caused a U.S. POTUS to resign and the end of it.  It started small and just grew to where it involved millions.  I was one of them and I'd do it again in a heart beat.

As the desperation builds, this will too.  It takes different forms, here under the table or ignored by cops with a little mordida.  Some places in the streets.  In many cases the politicians faced with drastic loss of tax revenues will cave in.

Putting the world into a depression to prevent the inevitable is not a viable policy.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

Watch and learn.  There is no herd immunity because there is no vaccine and these unsustainable policies have prevented it being developed. 

 

 

You mean the vaccines that are in development are a figment of everyone's imagination?

How about the time that allowed for a viable drug to be approved... and the lives it saved by doing so in such a manner that the hospitals were not overwhelmed.

I think Canada is doing a fine job... and am very thankful that there are very few yahoos there.

 

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2 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

 

Yes Sea, seriously.  Don't be misled by media that is censoring the news. 

 

Oh, boy, here we go....

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17 hours ago, RickS said:

Oh, boy, here we go....

Naw. It's okay, Rick. I'm good. I'm figuring out what media is censoring the news. Making a list for myself. So I don't get misled.

To be thorough, I'm starting at the bottom. Paint chips. Maybe oil paints.

 

Edit: Bad choice to start. Too granular. A bit boring. But cleared as misleading media to my satisfaction. Well, I wasn't mislead, YMMV. 

I'm done with the vetting of media though. My bad. I don't have the patience. I'll just blunder around, evaluating media as it pops up.

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1 hour ago, AngusMactavish said:

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Thanks Angus, that the statics I think is very important, would like to see how Canada figures into picture. Obviously the U.S.has more work to do.Interesting the results from Sweden are high despite the media praise for its approach, over 65 stay home the rest of you go out and play!!

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Sweden's approach was... no lockdown. That has garnered them 2nd place it appears. 

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9 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

These things die down naturally as a result of herd immunity if there is no vaccine. 

 

8 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

There is no herd immunity because there is no vaccine

A bit contradictory?

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Not at all.  Perhaps I wasn't clear.  There are three ways to achieve herd immunity:  Natural, where the disease runs its course, a small percentage die and the 60-70 percent of immunity among the general population is achieved and the pandemic slowly dies out.  Artificial, where a vaccine is applied at the same level to create herd immunity without most having the disease at all, achieving the same result.  And combination, where both methods result in the required level of immunity for the disease to die out after a period of time, which is usually the way it happens.

There is no herd immunity because the disease has not run its course as per usual and because there is no vaccine and won't be one effectively distributed for a long time to come the only way there will be herd immunity is for the disease to run its course.  The unsustainable policies cannot do anything other than delay the development of herd immunity by natural means.  If you think the corona virus will not still be there and still be active come May 17th or May 30th or June 30th I definitely have a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to sell you.

If they could delay the course of the disease and hence the development of herd immunity by natural means long enough for a vaccine to be developed, tested, manufactured on a massive scale and distributed then the policies would make sense.  The fallacy here is believing this virus isn't as long lived as the rest of its genre and just locking up everyone for a month or two will make it go away.  If that were true we wouldn't be seeing all these predictions from the "experts" about how there is going to be a second wave this fall or winter.

What is going away with these short term lockdowns is the world economy.

Given the economic damage these policies have already caused in the short term by the time that rolls around either far more people would be dead or more likely there would be a massive backlash against it.  These politicians know they are running out of time with this which is why they are abandoning these policies while pretending to not do so.  They are claiming success when in fact all they've achieved is delay at great cost to the young and healthy who would almost all survive this anyway.  There really is no way to judge success as we can't predict what the natural course would look like with this virus.

Remember you personally have the right to sequester in place and avoid contact with the general population as long as you see the need.  Really it isn't going to come blowing over your walls.  Those of us who are part of the most vulnerable population are probably going to have to do this for quite some time to come.  But our well being does depend on the rest of the people being able to go back to work, produce and deliver the things we all need and keep the lights on in a manner of speaking.

This has been a substantive and civil discussion even though there are strong differences of opinion here.  Thank you all for that.

 

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One of the issues with herd immunity theory is that infection survivors must be immune to reoccurrence of the virus. This is not confirmed with corona virus.

"After testing different scenarios, the Harvard group concluded that their projections of how many people end up getting covid-19 in the coming years depended “most crucially” on “the extent of population immunity, whether immunity wanes, and at what rate.” In other words, the critical factor in projecting the path of the outbreak is also a total unknown."

MIT https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long-are-people-immune-to-covid-19/

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At my age and state of health,  my only serious chance to live more years is a vaccine...which isn't there yet.  I agree with Mainecoons' projection in general.  There is no good solution that won't cause massive damage to many people.  I understand that having the disease does not seem to confer immunity, so letting it "run its course" isn't really a solution. 

A non-political opinion about this is that no matter which party happens to be in the majority and/or in the White House, it is obviously in their best interest to preside over a healthy, rather than a disastrous economy. "The people" are likely to vote in whoever they see as most likely to save them from whatever disaster is currently happening. 

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Like most diseases, covid-19 has a disproportionate adverse effect on the oldest and weakest among us. In our society, we tend to warehouse these people in nursing homes and elderly care facilities, where they are trapped like sitting ducks with no way out.  All it takes is one caregiver or visitor to introduce the virus to all of those in the trap. While an individual may not become infected from the first exposure, repeated exposure within these closed environments leads to near-universal infection among the lot of them. I have seen estimates as high as 25-50% of all deaths from covid-19 occur within these closed environments. The use of widely accessible protective gear and better training of caregivers would have helped prevent such calamities. But that didn't happen. 

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3 hours ago, Mainecoons said:

There is no herd immunity because the disease has not run its course as per usual and because there is no vaccine and won't be one effectively distributed for a long time to come the only way there will be herd immunity is for the disease to run its course.

You are still pushing the idea of herd immunity without a vaccine, which there as been no scientific evidence of thus far.

And here's what happens when they decide too early that it's safe to reopen: https://ca.yahoo.com/news/japanese-island-suffering-avoidable-second-100937097.html

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1 hour ago, Mainecoons said:

We keep hearing that from lots of different places, but the US "Task Force" never has come out and said that. Why? Neither does Mexico. One would think if that were the actual case so far, that would be something worth informing the Public about loud and clear. Failure to do that would be criminal.

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On 5/2/2020 at 4:04 PM, lakeside7 said:

Thanks Angus, that the statics I think is very important, would like to see how Canada figures into picture. Obviously the U.S.has more work to do.Interesting the results from Sweden are high despite the media praise for its approach, over 65 stay home the rest of you go out and play!!

Canada is ~10 deaths / 100,000 (3681 deaths) and 59,400 cases.

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