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Jim Bowie

Stanford Doctors Calls for Ending Full-Blown Lockdowns

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Since we know some won't read this, here are some of the salient parts:

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According to a recent Stanford University antibody study, the fatality rate of the infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent. These numbers are far lower than past World Health Organization estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher and that spurred draconian lockdowns.

 

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In New York City, an epicenter of the pandemic with more than one-third of all U.S. deaths, the rate of death for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01 percent, or 11 per 100,000 in the population. On the other hand, people aged 75 and over have a death rate 80 times that. For people under 18 years old, the rate of death is zero per 100,000.

Of all fatal cases in New York state, two-thirds were in patients over 70 years of age; more than 95 percent were over 50 years of age; and about 90 percent of all fatal cases had an underlying illness. Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness. If you do not already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small, regardless of age. And young adults and children in normal health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19.

 

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Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.

 

According to hospital utilization data from New York City, individuals under the age of 18 were hospitalized at a rate of 0.01 percent per 100,000 people. For those aged between 18 to 44 years old, hospitalization stands at 0.1 percent per 100,000.

For the age cohort of 65 to 74, only 1.7 percent were subject to hospitalization.

 

Atlas expanded on these numbers:

Of 4,103 confirmed COVID-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded ‘age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization.’ Even early WHO reports noted that 80 percent of all cases were mild, and more recent studies show a far more widespread rate of infection and lower rate of serious illness. Half of all people testing positive for infection have no symptoms at all. The vast majority of younger, otherwise healthy people do not need significant medical care if they catch this infection.

It goes on to discuss how we might be prolonging the problem by preventing "herd immunity" and reminds us there is a cost associated with the deferral of other important medical procedures.  Finally it makes a point I find very hard to dispute, namely that we should focus on the vulnerable and let the rest get on with their lives.  The rest are the people who mainly do the work and need to work to live, they are the bulk of the population and if they don't work poverty explodes and everything grinds to a halt.  

And that is starting to happen.  Check the recent reports of growing disruptions of the food system.  

 

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Again, we do need to remember that Mexico with its extended families, serious obesity and diabetes problems and lack of safety net really complicates the handling of this situation.  Unfortunately I think it is going to come down to a choice between economic survival and accepting that more people will die here.  That's pretty draconian too.

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AGAIN with the FLAWED Standford study of Santa Clara county. Keep right on pushing it Bowie, maybe someday you'll sneak it past me. Having it show up in a different article and thinking I won't read it is not going to work.

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The changing things to be on the look out for with Covid-19... including the blood clotting disorders and cases of stroke in young, healthy people.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/6-possible-symptoms-coronavirus-cdc-154906818.html

Many things are evolving and the world is learning and sharing as we go along... be aware just in case.

https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exclusive-national-alert-as-coronavirus-related-condition-may-be-emerging-in-children/7027496.article

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1 hour ago, Ferret said:

AGAIN with the FLAWED Standford study of Santa Clara county. Keep right on pushing it Bowie, maybe someday you'll sneak it past me. Having it show up in a different article and thinking I won't read it is not going to work.

And what do you have to say about the New York data?  That was the epicenter of the problem in the U.S. and there is a lot of information from it.

The German study reached the same conclusion.

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The truth is, that this time around, the residents of Planet Earth were very fortunate that this pandemic was rather mild and nothing similar or as catastrophic as the Spanish Flu.  But yes, it could of ended up being far more deadly, and potentially might be in future waves.  But with this current strain or strains it seems to be on an almost an equal par as the common flu.  But again looking at the death toll of Covid-19, the 55 thousand deaths in the US alone, are roughly the same amount as the common flu this year.  The vast majority of the deaths were never ever tested.  They only have so many tests and they don't usually use the few they have on the deceased.  Anybody, that has died recently in the US, in at least the past two months, and if prior to death, they suffered from a fever, cough or any other flu or Coronavirus symptoms, hospitals mandated or highly encouraged that their death cerificate were to be stamped with Covid=19 as cause of death.  That alone should cause most people to think a moment.  Of course the Coronavirus is not a hoax and yes thousands upon thousands have died from it.  But, so also have they died in almost equal numbers every single year, since the beginning of recorded history, from the flu.  Both viruses predominately kill the enfermed elderly.  This is nothing new.  The number of confirmed cases is so huge and so wide spread, lock down will not stop it.  It will pass through the entire population regardless what the governments decide to do.  Lock down, to be effective, needed to be done on day one.

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Yes, effective and early warnings and precautions would have made a very big difference in the results. The thing that really bothers me is the speed with which it affects people who are vulnerable. Usually, the normal flu is spread out from November to May of any given year. This is a large number of deaths in a very short period of time by comparison. And it is very contagious.

Be safe everyone.

 

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Yes, you are exactly correct Ferret.  The death toll from the flu starts to render its toll usually beginning in November más o menos.  For the Coronavirus, the CDC began counting pneumonia type deaths in  around Februrary and automatically attributing all deaths to Coronavirus without testing all the bodies first.  And the truth is, since it is so similar to the common flu, nobody, as of today, really knows when it came out or even how long it has been spreading in the US.  We only know when it was first detected.  Just think about it.  A hundred years later, nobody today, even knows where the Spanish Flu came from.  It was first detected in Kansas, but where did it come from and how long had it been around before it was first detected?

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Ferret is correct in pointing out the methodology used by the Stanford doctors is being questioned.  However taken in the context of the NY data, data from Germany, and one other study from CA there is a strong suggestion the CV is very flu like in its real prevalence in the population and the fact that prevalence includes a large group who are asymptomatic but can spread the disease.  If that is in fact the case, the Stanford group are suggesting the containment strategy of locking up the strong and healthy is not the right approach.

There is pretty good evidence the CV did start last winter and was spread by air travel.  

As a side note here's a graph that was published in this weeks GDL Reporter from a paper, "Megadrought and Megadeath In 16th Century Mexico."  Now this is an example of what an epidemic can do.

The 16th-century population collapse in Mexico, based on estimates of Cook and Simpson  (1). The 1545 and 1576 cocoliztli epidemics appear to have been hemorrhagic fevers caused by an indigenous viral agent and aggravated by unusual climatic conditions. The Mexican population did not recover to pre-Hispanic levels until the 20th century.

 

 

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Suggestion:  check this out:

mediabiasfactcheck.com/big-league-politics
 
In other words, consider the source.

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10 hours ago, Ferret said:

I cannot find the name of the test used or whether it was FDA approved. Therefore, my opinion is on hold. I tried and gave up.

This is from 10 hours ago... https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/nearly-a-quarter-of-nyc-residents-show-covid-19-antibodies-cuomos-survey-suggests

 

 

That would seem to support what the Stanford docs and the Germans found, no?

 

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It does but, the fact still remains, that unless the test being used is specific for this coronavirus and no others then the results are not accurate. It is my fear that people who are told they have antibodies do not actually have antibodies to THIS coronavirus and will think they're bullet proof.

The information and proper accurate testing will come. The pace of response and study is phenomenal given the circumstances.

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54 minutes ago, gringal said:

Suggestion:  check this out:

mediabiasfactcheck.com/big-league-politics
 
In other words, consider the source.

The question is whether the story is being reported accurately.  Did the doctors say what it reports or not?  Have they subsequently refuted the story or issued clarifications to it?

In the absence of this, simply citing a known biased source that claims another source is biased doesn't really tell us much.

I see it being reported on the Guardian, ScienceMag, RealClearPolitics, WSJ and others.  For the most part they are pointing out what Ferret did, namely the test protocol is being questioned.

I find whenever I have a concern about a source it is helpful to do some searching and see what the take is on it from a variety of sources.

 

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That's correct.  There is dissent in the scientific community.  I suggest however you read about this from the sources I cited above.  They point out the difference of opinion but do not exaggerate it as this one does.  IMO this is not a good source as it is known quite biased.  I put them in the same class as World Net Daily frankly.

When you start seeing inflammatory rhetoric your bias radar should be on.  Here's how the story was first and then subsequently reported in a much more balanced manner.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

and then a few days later, presenting the dissenting viewpoint very quickly.

As I'm sure you know, the Guardian is not considered to be a conservative source.  Still I find they seem to make a better effort at balance than many of their peers, particularly among the U.S. Media.

This is a much less charged and more balanced report IMO.  It also points out the difficulty involved in this kind of research and makes reference to other similar work.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-antibody-studies-california-stanford

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Here's how I do my "research" most of the time:  First, read one biased to the right, then one biased to the left and then, with luck, find one in the middle.  Truth, these days, is a buried treasure.  I doubt we've found it as yet.  However, when all the impatient states open up, the "truth" will lie in the increase, or not, of sickness and death. However, that, too, will depend on the accuracy of the reporting.  This is coming from a lifelong cynic, of course.😉

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Well I try to avoid the seriously biased and stick close to the middle which is why I don't bother with either WND or Salon or their peers.

Just keep your eye on the rising sickness and death being caused by the growth of poverty among those who must work to live.  Those who don't have to work to live seem to be a bit forgetful about that part.

I think these politicians are working up to making the choice between the two.  And I think they are increasingly going to come down on the side of the great majority of the population, those who have to work, who will either not get this or who will survive it.  I'm OK with that as I've said before we should not ruin the economic health of the majority to protect the minority.  

 

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At this point, it's a matter of choosing what the "right thing" to do is, and it's very debatable.  It gets to the point that the governor of one state said about being willing to die so that his children and grandchildren would be better off economically......or something like that.  What a choice!

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6 minutes ago, gringal said:

At this point, it's a matter of choosing what the "right thing" to do is, and it's very debatable.  It gets to the point that the governor of one state said about being willing to die so that his children and grandchildren would be better off economically......or something like that.  What a choice!

It ain't pretty but that is what it is coming down to IMO.

 

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On 4/28/2020 at 12:07 PM, Mainecoons said:

It ain't pretty but that is what it is coming down to IMO.

 

Interesting stat: As of today, 732 have died in Texas from the virus. During the 2018-2019 Flu Season, over 11, 000 Texans died from the flu. Perspective is very important. Texas was not and is not a "lock down" state.

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Of course perspective is everything and timing is everything too. I am equally sure that some in New York were looking at Europe in askance at one point in time. And at one point in time, there were NO cases in Texas at all. Be safe!!!

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Texas was locked down on March 19. Only in the past few days there have some lockdown changes in stages taking place.

2 hours ago, Jim Bowie said:

Interesting stat: As of today, 732 have died in Texas from the virus. .......Texas was not and is not a "lock down" state.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/19/texas-governor-coronavirus-lockdown-orders-137691

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1 hour ago, Kiko said:

Texas was locked down on March 19. Only in the past few days there have some lockdown changes in stages taking place.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/19/texas-governor-coronavirus-lockdown-orders-137691

Family there been fishing as normal, going to grocery, Home Depot, Walmart, Sam's, Costco, out to buy food to go at Whataburger, Sonic, most local restaurants. All convenience stores open. Took several trips to other towns to see the flowers in bloom. Stopped at convenience store and bought food in those towns. BTW, lot more than 10 people allowed in Home Depot, Walmart, and Sam's there. Sure schools are closed, no restrictions as to stay home or wear masks.If you read the Governor's Order, you will see that he does not reference any type of "lockdown". The "thrill" headline is the only place that is mentioned.  I don't call that a "lock down". But, YMMD. Don't believe all news, some is "fake" and "thrill seeking". Stay safe. :D

 

 

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