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My lease expires at the end of August when my housemate returns north. This house is great but too much for just me. I was planning on moving to Asia and it doesn't look promising this year to be even able to. I am wondering what the opinions are for future rental prices. Any guesses?

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They should go after ALL scofflaws because I can assure you that they come in all nationalities. Renting in U.S. dollars should not be allowed. Period. This is Mexico. We got burned big time rent

Chapala is not a barrio. It is the main town/city with many barrios and the largest  in the municipio where you live. My house that I own being face lifted, is not a hovel[see foto] and all the lakefr

Dogs don't bark at anyone. You do.

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Like a lot of things there will be a bell curve of rental rates. On one end are the bargains, on the other the vacation rentals with high prices. My guess is that the higher priced rentals will drop in percentage more than lower priced ones. Is it possible that those people who have considered moving here at one time might speed up those plans ?, or will they be stuck where they are due to being unable to sell their house. ( for the price they want, not the market ). 

 

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25 minutes ago, lakeside7 said:

The Facebook pages are showing a significant number of places for bargain  prices

I think it will a blood bath of surplus rentals at Lakeside for the next 2/3 years

Can you post examples of some of these bargain rentals,  I’m not in the market for a rental but from what I’ve seen On the Facebook rental sites is that prices are as high as ever. Also I’ve noticed a lot more Mexican landlords listing property for rent at very high prices.. I’m of the opinion rental prices should not increase and should decrease a little next season but I haven’t seen any evidence of it yet...

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7 hours ago, TelsZ4 said:

Can you post examples of some of these bargain rentals,  I’m not in the market for a rental but from what I’ve seen On the Facebook rental sites is that prices are as high as ever. Also I’ve noticed a lot more Mexican landlords listing property for rent at very high prices.. I’m of the opinion rental prices should not increase and should decrease a little next season but I haven’t seen any evidence of it yet...

The Mexican economy is heading south quite quickly with the main drivers being oil revenue, tourism, exports and remittances from the states. All in shambles.  Pemex downgraded to worse than junk and Mexico on the verge of being downgraded if not already to below investment quality. This is a big deal. No jobs, no money, no rental payments for local people. no food and its a a formula for worse crime. Many austeruty measures will ahve to be put in place.I wouldn't buy a home here now. I believe those who have to sell will take a haircut. I also see the fracc I am in have no rentals after the Canadians went home. Thats very telling. I believe this will take a very long time to recover and we haven't even talked about the effect of Covid. My surgeon after performing a heart procedure on me a few weeks back said to stay away from his hospital until August. I am not reading anything into it other than he knows something I dont. 

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More US residents will move   out of USA, as they retire early , because they lost their jobs,  and with  peso at 24 ish,   all you need is 300 couples to move to lakeside in one year.

they can not afford to live in USA, very little food is grown there, last 20 year trend was to oversea farms, no place to grow victory gardens. food lines are very long right now.

young families, who work from the internet have already been moving overseas in the last 5 years.

its survival, they want a better life.  I have talked with many lakesiders who are sending money to their grandchildren who lost their jobs this month.

in two years from now when  the virus stimulus for unemployment stops, and if they can not find a job they may come and live with their grandparents and work form the internet for a while.

.

rentals ?  who knows, last three years, rentals were hard to find, and many persons who come for 6 months had to lock in full year leases and sublet out rental for summer or have house sitter. or buy a house.  Good rentals are scarce right now for upcoming snowbird season.

Those that were sitting on the edge about with decision of moving overseas will make their move in the next six months for better life.

 over 24 million people out of work seeking unemployment, yes mexico will suffer a bit as USA buys less from them, but if you have dollars coming from USA pension, social security etc, you will do great in mexico.

 

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The rental market and sales markets run counter to each other.  When there are lots of buyers there are fewer rentals and rents tend to go up.  The reverse is equally true as we saw up until 2018 or so.

Because of the age of the expats here there is always a steady flow of sellers as people die or move back up north for family or medical reasons.  What varies are the number of buyers.  Usually when sales slow drastically a lot of these sellers rent their houses and wait for better market conditions.  So the number of rentals increases.  I would suspect we are at the beginning of a rental surplus/slow home sale cycle.

As with all RE markets, a slowing sales market is first reflected in difficulty in selling the less desirable locations and home features.  The bargains will show up first in those categories.  

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I have been renting 6 apartments. One to a non Mexican and the five others to Mexicans. As of now only one Mexican is still employed, the four others are no longer. I expect to take a hit come the rent for the month of May. I do not yet have a pension (will come in November of this year) but I think I can survive without rent money for another 3 months. After that I think I will just sit on my porch and drink Coronas ☺️

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The local rental market was in some instances very overpriced before the virus hit. In talking to Realtors and rental agents six, seven months ago they were telling owners that their property could be rented but not at those high prices. We saw this first hand in our local community with new buyers trying for big rents and never getting it. Those houses have now been listed for sale and some have sold. 

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4 hours ago, Upfront said:

There are Mexicans who are suffering due to lack of work wh9o will be looking for cheaper rentals too.

Yes but there are many landlords, including my last one, who was very much Mexican, will not rent to Mexicans. They want/ crave U.S. dollars, and do not want to pay any taxes. They prey on the newbies and the naive.

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I think that when many of the snowbirds have relatives move in because "the house is paid for and grandma and grandpa would love to have us live with them". You will have many a snow bird decide to come full time until the economy NOB returns to normal and the kids , grandkids etc can get their own place again.

I know that I am moving on Jun 3rd. to Ajijic and I have a place in Chapala rented that is perfect for isolation if I have to do that for a few weeks. But it has been my plan  to move to Ajijic since last Sept.

My mom's house is paid for and since I am turning the care of my mom  ( 88+) over to my sisters after 12 years of me doing it all alone, the chatter about who can't pay their rent and would love to move in here for free has already started. Funny, nieces and nephews who said our 1960 ranch style 3 bed 1 bath was too small and not nice enough are finding that the brand new cars and the new mini mansion are hard to keep up with no job. Suddenly they are willing to "slum it" if they can live here for free and mom goes to live at my sisters.   I think that situations like this are going to push more retirees to take their SS check and live in Lakeside.

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1 hour ago, Ferret said:

Nobody qualifies on just SS alone, especially now.

Am I the only one worried SS will be paying out in three years when I'm eligible ? The music may stop  with no chairs left....

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27 minutes ago, CHILLIN said:

Yes but there are many landlords, including my last one, who was very much Mexican, will not rent to Mexicans. They want/ crave U.S. dollars, and do not want to pay any taxes. They prey on the newbies and the naive.

Maybe but there are thousands of Mexicans aleready livng here and renting

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16 minutes ago, Ferret said:

Nobody qualifies on just SS alone, especially now.

I did not say that snowbirds would qualify on their SS alone. Most people who have a paid for home and SS in the US also have a nestegg for retiring.  Even still there is no requirements for  180 day FMM and many people go back to the states and return over and over, while establishing the monetary requirements.

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49 minutes ago, traderspoc said:

More US residents will move   out of USA, as they retire early , because they lost their jobs,  and with  peso at 24 ish,   all you need is 300 couples to move to lakeside in one year.

they can not afford to live in USA, very little food is grown there, last 20 year trend was to oversea farms, no place to grow victory gardens. food lines are very long right now.

young families, who work from the internet have already been moving overseas in the last 5 years.

its survival, they want a better life.  I have talked with many lakesiders who are sending money to their grandchildren who lost their jobs this month.

in two years from now when  the virus stimulus for unemployment stops, and if they can not find a job they may come and live with their grandparents and work form the internet for a while.

.

rentals ?  who knows, last three years, rentals were hard to find, and many persons who come for 6 months had to lock in full year leases and sublet out rental for summer or have house sitter. or buy a house.  Good rentals are scarce right now for upcoming snowbird season.

Those that were sitting on the edge about with decision of moving overseas will make their move in the next six months for better life.

 over 24 million people out of work seeking unemployment, yes mexico will suffer a bit as USA buys less from them, but if you have dollars coming from USA pension, social security etc, you will do great in mexico.

 

 

OK please indulge me for making my observation

A significant number of people world wide have been traumatized by the epidemic and they will sit back and reevaluate their future travel and retirement plans. One of the question to be asked when will it be safe to travel again, and is sensible to travel/move overseas or stay closer to home?

The other question that will be raised by their  Kids (some kids!! )concern for parents  who have moved to a foreign country and get sick and travel become restricted. Some kids will be more concerned and insist they stay closely to home..maybe AZ, FL....... who knows. I am sure there will be hundreds in NY State who flock to Florida

The people who got into the pre 2008 housing crash and were only marginal able to pay the original loan before it was adjusted up have gone..The folks left have significantly more than the minimum 15/20% equity in their homes.... now have 50-70 -%...... and they will not walk away from that amount. The government(s) will  have to come up with some magic programs to save those people , that why it is important for the USA to start looking for a leader who can come up with a effective Recovery Program NOW (Please no politics)

OK now the local rental/selling situation .There has been and continues to be significant construction in Ajijic and Chapala of small 4/6/8 rental complexes to met the rental demand period...... just check around a lot of infilling happening legally and the other.

Sellers of homes are now stuck and will be until the lookers from NOB can start looking again. Meantime some realtors are coming up with the follow creative financing way to lure buyers back in (at the cost of the seller of course) and I share the following example with you. (please I do not wish to open a can of worms and have your observations about the logic or not logic)

"We had the house listed when the dollar was at 19.20 and the equivalent price in Pesos was 6,816,000 pesos

Now the peso is at 23.00 which means your home in Pesos is  equal to 8,165,000 Pesos

Therefore I think we should sell in Pesos at 6,816,00 Pesos" What the real estate guy could have said lets drop it 15/20 % because of the change in the Pesos!!!"

 

In conclusion the Lakeside market will be saturated with places to rent and to buy for a significant period and the meantime people will take long to contemplate a move to a foreign country or how they spend their vacation time (on the sea or land, home or abroad)

 

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3 hours ago, Canopydesigner said:

I did not say that snowbirds would qualify on their SS alone. Most people who have a paid for home and SS in the US also have a nestegg for retiring.  Even still there is no requirements for  180 day FMM and many people go back to the states and return over and over, while establishing the monetary requirements.

According to Sonia, a reliable source in my opinion, Mexico has been sending these people back to apply for residency. Might work a time or two, but not a solution to be counted on.

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I think until the newbies and naive understand that paying in $US is the equivalent of paying in double in Mexican pesos. I think many Mexican landlords would be embarassed of their peso pricing, and would know very well.that no one in their right minds, or not on the run from the law, would ever pay those prices.

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2 hours ago, CHILLIN said:

I think until the newbies and naive understand that paying in $US is the equivalent of paying in double in Mexican pesos. I think many Mexican landlords would be embarassed of their peso pricing, and would know very well.that no one in their right minds, or not on the run from the law, would ever pay those prices.

I feel sorry for you. Why so rude to others? Try to be nicer and have some compassion. Have a good day. 

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10 hours ago, CHILLIN said:

Yes but there are many landlords, including my last one, who was very much Mexican, will not rent to Mexicans. They want/ crave U.S. dollars, and do not want to pay any taxes. They prey on the newbies and the naive.

I would believe there are more Mexicans renting from Mexicans than from foreigners, and there are many Mexicans renting in the Chapala/Jocotepec Municipios.

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10 hours ago, ea93105 said:

Am I the only one worried SS will be paying out in three years when I'm eligible ? The music may stop  with no chairs left....

People have been saying that since all the way back in the '80s. The fact is that seniors--those eligible for Social Security or soon to be-- vote at a much higher rate than any other age group. That is why, ever since the Reagan Administration first tried it in 1985, politicians have viewed cuts to Social Security or Medicare as the "third rail" of US politics. Touch them and your career dies. The history of  the last few decades is littered with the dead careers politicians who tried to make even modest cuts. I wouldn't get my knickers in a twist over it.

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13 hours ago, CHILLIN said:

I think until the newbies and naive understand that paying in $US is the equivalent of paying in double in Mexican pesos. I think many Mexican landlords would be embarassed of their peso pricing, and would know very well.that no one in their right minds, or not on the run from the law, would ever pay those prices.

It is quite amazing how there are a few RE markets in Mexico that are based on the dollar.  PV is another.

The Peso has been devalued internationally but internally Peso prices haven't devalued nearly as much.  Hence and at least for now, those who are converting dollars into pesos find the former going a lot further than it did just a few years ago.

Remember though things can go in the opposite direction.  The $64 question is whether the relative fiscal prudence of Mexico as compared to the wholesale printing of currency NOB will at some point send the dollar in the opposite direction.

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