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Coronavirus, SARS, COVID-19


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2 hours ago, Go Solar said:

That is the attitude they are taking, I agree....which totally ignores asymptomatic "carriers"  (another word they are all avoiding)…..which may be one of the larger issues both now and in the future, both from these people and the recovered ones who still test positive.     The understanding of the implications of both of these groups, is not at all yet clear.

Saying that there are 30% false negatives as a justification for not testing, is another straw man argument.     With enough sample size, one can easily account for that, while the tests are being improved to lower that issue.     

Which is why EVERYONE needs to wear a simple cloth mask when they interact with other people. The mask prevents carriers from spreading the virus. I know they are annoying, I know they fog your glasses, give you a headache.... but they can work!

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Go Solar said:

"Testing must be broad based to get a true reading of incidence and geographic spread.      You don't need to test everyone, but you need to test a sample, of everyone.   This is basic science and statistics.

Testing only the symptomatic and at-risk people, is useless for getting a real reading.    

However, it appears that the powers-that-be, in most countries, really do not want a "real reading".... "

-------------------------------------------------

 

This is true, in most countries. And one wonders if the idea is to skew the death rate upward or downward, or lack of test kits.

Seems like panic is the order of the day with people here at Lakeside. I have been referred to a few times as a "TROLL"

by people who have no factual basis, so I assume they are acting out of Fear, Anger, and Grief somehow to my initial post..

As to a previous comments about calculating rates, if you test the sickest of the sick, you will have

a higher death rate than if you test the whole population. (See Go Solar's comment above.)   Basic statistics. And public health 101.

Also, the PRS test picks up genetic material from pieces of material in the body that are not

what came out of WUHAN China, so be wary of those who worship this test as the final word on COVID-19.

A positive result from an appropriately validated serology test that detects IgM is likely to indicate that someone currently has or has recently had the virus. Serology can yield a negative test result in infected patients (e.g., if antibody has not yet developed in response to the virus) or may be falsely positive (e.g., if antibody to a coronavirus other than the pandemic novel strain is present). 

In short, what you can detect with PRS includes other strains of the Coronavirus family. That is not to say

that using this test is bad. Used over a large population, it can be very useful. Few countries have done this,

but the ones that have yield far lower death rates than we have heard on TV.

The models that have, and are, being used to predict death rates have been sadly wrong, including Dr. Fauci's.

Dont take my word for it, look up the quotes going back to early January. Including Fauci's.

There have been enough erroneous predictions based on bad science that have us all scrambling to stay alive at all costs. Sad.

Everyone is doing their best, I think, but the models have been demonstrably wrong. I feel bad for MD's and 

decision makers in this time of misinformation and disinformation put out as gospel by news outlets.

FYI to the concerned citizens above,  my first nickname was " The Doctor " , and it

comes from my office co-workers beginning in the 1970's, because I was always reading and liked to

do research into public health issues that were emerging as time passed. I subscribed to MMWR, and

read it every time I had a spare minute. I have also been called, "Batman", "Poolman", 

"Spiderman", and " The Safety Guy" by my whimsical workmates over the years. Whatever. I just picked a name

that was not my own when I signed up less than 24 hours ago, for privacy.

Seems like you guys took this subject pretty seriously. It is a good one to discuss, from all angles.

So I hope that clears that up. I am a retired environmental health lawyer with a master's degree in health management and

I managed environmental health programs in Washington State before retiring from government, after which

I became a public health consultant and later moved down here.

So here we are.

Sleep well, and try to remain positive, not paranoid. People have been dying from flu complications for a long time.

And people have also been dying from fear induced cortisol and elevated BP, which many seem to have, these days.

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Quite the contrary.  There is so much misinformation and fear being spread about this situation a background like this can be useful.  Degrees are never as useful as relevant experience.  Sounds like there is a fair amount of it there.  Exactly whom would be useful in a pandemic?  It is not only about medicine it is also about management.

 

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He’s not offering any constructive criticism.  What could he have done differently in Washington state?  Told everybody not to panic?  What does that accomplish?  I’m sure he could do wonders if Gov. Cuomo had him as an adviser. Critics are a dime a dozen when the shit is flying all over.

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This is an interesting read and gives you an idea of what works and what doesn't. Technology and TESTING along with a population that values the health of ALL seems to be the right path. Can you give up your individual freedoms and rights for your neighbour for a short time? If the answer is no in your country, then it's gonna be bad. There is no economy without people.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/16/world/coronavirus-response-lessons-learned-intl/index.html

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Ferret said:

This is an interesting read and gives you an idea of what works and what doesn't. Technology and TESTING along with a population that values the health of ALL seems to be the right path. Can you give up your individual freedoms and rights for your neighbour for a short time? If the answer is no in your country, then it's gonna be bad. There is no economy without people.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/16/world/coronavirus-response-lessons-learned-intl/index.html

 

 

Excellent article Ferret.  Thanks for sharing!

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4 hours ago, The DOCTOR said:

Go Solar said:

"Testing must be broad based to get a true reading of incidence and geographic spread.      You don't need to test everyone, but you need to test a sample, of everyone.   This is basic science and statistics.

Testing only the symptomatic and at-risk people, is useless for getting a real reading.    

However, it appears that the powers-that-be, in most countries, really do not want a "real reading".... "

-------------------------------------------------

 

This is true, in most countries. And one wonders if the idea is to skew the death rate upward or downward, or lack of test kits.

Seems like panic is the order of the day with people here at Lakeside. I have been referred to a few times as a "TROLL"

by people who have no factual basis, so I assume they are acting out of Fear, Anger, and Grief somehow to my initial post..

As to a previous comments about calculating rates, if you test the sickest of the sick, you will have

a higher death rate than if you test the whole population. (See Go Solar's comment above.)   Basic statistics. And public health 101.

Also, the PRS test picks up genetic material from pieces of material in the body that are not

what came out of WUHAN China, so be wary of those who worship this test as the final word on COVID-19.

A positive result from an appropriately validated serology test that detects IgM is likely to indicate that someone currently has or has recently had the virus. Serology can yield a negative test result in infected patients (e.g., if antibody has not yet developed in response to the virus) or may be falsely positive (e.g., if antibody to a coronavirus other than the pandemic novel strain is present). 

In short, what you can detect with PRS includes other strains of the Coronavirus family. That is not to say

that using this test is bad. Used over a large population, it can be very useful. Few countries have done this,

but the ones that have yield far lower death rates than we have heard on TV.

The models that have, and are, being used to predict death rates have been sadly wrong, including Dr. Fauci's.

Dont take my word for it, look up the quotes going back to early January. Including Fauci's.

There have been enough erroneous predictions based on bad science that have us all scrambling to stay alive at all costs. Sad.

Everyone is doing their best, I think, but the models have been demonstrably wrong. I feel bad for MD's and 

decision makers in this time of misinformation and disinformation put out as gospel by news outlets.

FYI to the concerned citizens above,  my first nickname was " The Doctor " , and it

comes from my office co-workers beginning in the 1970's, because I was always reading and liked to

do research into public health issues that were emerging as time passed. I subscribed to MMWR, and

read it every time I had a spare minute. I have also been called, "Batman", "Poolman", 

"Spiderman", and " The Safety Guy" by my whimsical workmates over the years. Whatever. I just picked a name

that was not my own when I signed up less than 24 hours ago, for privacy.

Seems like you guys took this subject pretty seriously. It is a good one to discuss, from all angles.

So I hope that clears that up. I am a retired environmental health lawyer with a master's degree in health management and

I managed environmental health programs in Washington State before retiring from government, after which

I became a public health consultant and later moved down here.

So here we are.

Sleep well, and try to remain positive, not paranoid. People have been dying from flu complications for a long time.

And people have also been dying from fear induced cortisol and elevated BP, which many seem to have, these days.

lo siento for calling you a troll now that you have fleshed out your persona and posted something of merit ,I regret it whole heartily. You subscribed to the MMWR and I subscribed to Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine in the late 60's because of my vocation at that time.

pedro kertesz

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It seems that the problem with testing right now , is the lack of kits as well as an overwhemed health system.  so it cannot be done on a large scale which skews all the results.... In France only very sick people, and some health workers are being tested.. and there is a lot of healthy carriers  in the personel at the hospital.s. which does not help the situation. Going to a hospital should be avoided unless you have an emergency. I know of several people who got the irus from a hospital visit. ,, It will be probably the same in Mexico.. 

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42 minutes ago, Ferret said:

This is an interesting read and gives you an idea of what works and what doesn't. Technology and TESTING along with a population that values the health of ALL seems to be the right path. Can you give up your individual freedoms and rights for your neighbour for a short time? If the answer is no in your country, then it's gonna be bad. There is no economy without people.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/16/world/coronavirus-response-lessons-learned-intl/index.html

 

 

Gracias!!!

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1 hour ago, Jreboll said:

He’s not offering any constructive criticism.  What could he have done differently in Washington state?  Told everybody not to panic?  What does that accomplish?  I’m sure he could do wonders if Gov. Cuomo had him as an adviser. Critics are a dime a dozen when the shit is flying all over.

He's offering sensible observations that affect how we should approach this.  If you don't find it useful, just ignore.  However I suspect he is a lot more qualified to offer these observations than you are to critique them.

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I’ve been following Chris Martenson since he started podcasting about this in February. He has a PhD and post doctoral studies in neurotoxicology from Duke university. He goes into depth on a lot of issues and has pushed for being proactive in facing this threat. I may not be qualified in a lot of things but I have a college degree and worked all my life in critical care so I know what to look for on health issues so you tell me what you have to offer.

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Just common sense and a life of experience in all sorts of things.  I don't claim to be any sort of expert at this which is why I'm not offering a critique of his post.

Please post your links to Chris Martenson I'd like to see what he has to say.  I always look at a very broad range of sources before reaching conclusions.  

 

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2 hours ago, Jreboll said:

He’s not offering any constructive criticism.  What could he have done differently in Washington state?  Told everybody not to panic?  What does that accomplish?  I’m sure he could do wonders if Gov. Cuomo had him as an adviser. Critics are a dime a dozen when the shit is flying all over.

So, what would you have had the governor of Washington State (or NY or NJ or Michigan) do differently? Are you offering something positive and constructive, or you just criticizing someone else, as there is an abundance of that and putting the blame on others, without offering anything new.

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55 minutes ago, Jim Bowie said:

This is just an interview with one of many scientists on the virus and potential treatments. Nothing more. Can't find where he offers anything different than the "crowd". So....? The point of your comments?

 

 Good post Jim Bowie.Some people like to just wallow in dreck and even more so when they're isolated and realize that they don't like themselves.

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4 minutes ago, Jreboll said:

You are accepting what TD is saying at face value.  Why don’t you do a little bit of reading on the subject before you give your opinion and maybe you’ll start seeing why I said what I said.

You read my mind? Wow ! I, too, have that "college" degree you are so proud of, actually 3, and fortunately I have some common sense and a lot of different experiences, as do others here. So, where is YOUR plan of what he could/should have done differently as I asked, or do you not have one. Let us see it. Put up...

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7 minutes ago, Jreboll said:

3 degrees?  In what?  You didn’t get the innuendos he was throwing out?  Your common sense is long gone with Alzheimer’s creeping in.

Now you're a qualified Psychiatrist who can make an accurate diagnosis on someone by reading  their post on a web board? Wow, what talent!🤣😴

laurel and hardy dancing gif.gif

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Once again:

20 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

It amazes me how it is so hard here to stick to debating the topic and ideas instead of attacking each other.  Sad.

 

You could always point out where you think the errors are in his post and back up your assertions with citations from credible sources.  You do have more than the one you posted, yes?  I did some reading up on that one and it leaves me with a feeling that's a bit marginal.  

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