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The DOCTOR

Coronavirus, SARS, COVID-19

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If we are all tested, using the current protocol, most of us would be positive for Coronavirus, since it

is such a large family of viruses.

I wonder if the world is getting a false count due to inadequate testing.

Since we are only testing the sickest people, the death rate is naturally going to be higher

than if everone were tested, using serology.

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If you are a real doctor you would know your first statement is wrong.  You can only test positive if the virus is active in the body, and is specific for this exact virus.  

Your second statement conflicts with the presumption you make in your first statement.

The count is the number of positive and negative test results, not the number of the total infections. 

The last statement is a bit off..... You state we are only testing the sickest people..If we were only testing  only the sickest the number of negative results would be near zero  Actually we are testing those who show symptoms to see if they have the disease. That is why there are so many tests that are negative.

 

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Anyone know the ACTUAL situation here lakeside? Please, no FAKE NEWS...only real verifiable information please.

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By the way who is this DOCTOR guy? He joined this board exactly 2 hours ago...my suspicious mind would like to know.

 

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2 minutes ago, gringohombre said:

By the way who is this DOCTOR guy? He joined this board exactly 2 hours ago...my suspicious mind would like to know.

 

Trolls don't reveal who they really are.

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Gringo hombre

The truth is unknow to everyone including the experts.. 

People who test positve are positive, people who test negative can be positve.. My brother just died of the virus in France, he was a health worker, was tested twice while he was sick and the test were negative both times.

If there are cases Lakeside, no one knows for sure., they may not be but since no one is tested unless they are sick, no one knows and that is the truth.

We can contnue to take care of ourselves , not trave,l stay home were masks and take all the precautions and we are safer than if we did not but there is no 100% safe place as far as I know.

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2 hours ago, happyjillin said:

Trolls don't reveal who they really are.

This board has become a magnet for the truly unsettled.

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2 minutes ago, ComputerGuy said:

bmh, very sorry to hear of your loss.

Mega dittos to that.  Very sorry indeed.  😔

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6 hours ago, Mostlylost said:

 

You state we are only testing the sickest people..If we were only testing  only the sickest the number of negative results would be near zero  Actually we are testing those who show symptoms to see if they have the disease. That is why there are so many tests that are negative.

 

I don't think we are testing many who show symptoms here in Mexico. Unless, you can establish that you meet the criteria (which is quite difficult to do), just having "the symptoms" gets you nothing but "stay at home and take something for the fever". Because symptoms are so similar to the flu and upper respiratory problems, and there is a Lack of Tests, many that would test positive are not being tested unless they become extremely ill and sometimes then still not. 

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Bingo, Mr. Bowie

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47 minutes ago, Jim Bowie said:

I don't think we are testing many who show symptoms here in Mexico. Unless, you can establish that you meet the criteria (which is quite difficult to do), just having "the symptoms" get you nothing but "stay at home and take something for the fever". Because symptoms are so similar to the flu and upper respiratory problems, and there is a Lack of Tests, many that would test positive are not being tested unless they become extremely ill and sometimes then still not. 

This has been noted that the bug was in California long before first thought. So many people just thought they had the flu and recovered.  Hence lower numbers in Ca than NY. So say some of the talking heads on TV. 

Foot note: I am not a Doctor. 

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26 minutes ago, vetteforron said:

This has been noted that the bug was in California long before first thought. So many people just thought they had the flu and recovered.  Hence lower numbers in Ca than NY. So say some of the talking heads on TV. 

Foot note: I am not a Doctor. 

I was referencing now, not before, and in Mexico, not any other country. I thought that was what this thread was about.?

 

 

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Thanks you for the condoleances.. I mentionned my brother because that is one experience where we know for sure that the tests are not 100% reliable. Also his wife is positive and has zero symptoms, lots of people that would be positive if they were tested are walking around passing it to others without having any idea they are doing it.   You may not have fever or flu symptoms and still be a carrier, that is the scary part of these virus.

In CHiapas it is the flu season so many people are coughing and have fever and are not tested so who knows who is sick and who is not. It is one of the syaye with  still a low number of cases  and only 3 death.. But who knows if those figures are correct..  Many people do not believe the virus will get them and they tell me it willnot enter their town because they did some kindof incantations and burned candles in the mountains around their town.. they alsotell me , it is up to God and whe it is your turn it is your turn and we will continue to go out and work.. I tell them that is all good but the stores are closed and the tourists are gone so where are you going to sell? They tell me it is up to God.. 

 

I think we are n deep doo doo..

 

 

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2 hours ago, Jim Bowie said:

I don't think we are testing many who show symptoms here in Mexico. Unless, you can establish that you meet the criteria (which is quite difficult to do), just having "the symptoms" gets you nothing but "stay at home and take something for the fever". Because symptoms are so similar to the flu and upper respiratory problems, and there is a Lack of Tests, many that would test positive are not being tested unless they become extremely ill and sometimes then still not. 

What you surmise is somewhat logical. And you can be sure that many cases who presented minor symptoms were sent home in most countries before they had enough testing ability. 

In Jalisco of the persons that have been tested that had negative results are more than double the poitive which would indicate that many  with minor symptoms have been tested. 

The good news:

Starting today April 15, more cases of COVID-19 can be detected in the State of Jalisco institute of Epidemiological Diagnosis and Reference (InDRE).

The University of Guadalajara (UdeG) and the Government of Jalisco will have the capacity to carry out up to 500 daily PCR tests , which are the most reliable.The Executive will do them in the State Laboratory of Public Health, while the study house will carry them out in the three newly certified points: in the two units of the Civil Hospital and in the University Center of Health Sciences (CUCS).

This CUCS will also have a booth system to take samples without the need for the likely affected to get out of the car, as if picking up a fast food order.

If a patient who suspects having COVID-19 cannot go to the "express" module enabled by the University of Guadalajara (UdeG) at the University Center for Health Sciences (CUCS), health personnel will come to their home to perform the test.

To avoid crowds, those interested can make an appointment through line 33-3540-3001, which can answer up to 1,400 calls a day, 24 hours a day. 

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Good info, but are these the only locations where people from every pueblo in Jalisco are to be tested? If so, we have a Big problem. Also, remember the criteria for testing, Mild Symptoms are NEVER tested and a doctor must certify that he thinks there is a strong possibility you have the virus. 

 

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Testing must be broad based to get a true reading of incidence and geographic spread.      You don't need to test everyone, but you need to test a sample, of everyone.   This is basic science and statistics.

Testing only the symptomatic and at-risk people, is useless for getting a real reading.    

However, it appears that the powers-that-be, in most countries, really do not want a "real reading"....

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18 minutes ago, Go Solar said:

Testing must be broad based to get a true reading of incidence and geographic spread.      You don't need to test everyone, but you need to test a sample, of everyone.   This is basic science and statistics.

Testing only the symptomatic and at-risk people, is useless for getting a real reading.    

However, it appears that the powers-that-be, in most countries, really do not want a "real reading"....

Did you explain that to AMLO. Maybe he doesn't have that info . Obvious we are not doing that, so ... I'm only concerned with Mexico here. So, do you think he doesn't want a real reading of those. Of course, the only ones that need hospitalization are the 20% that show serious side effects, and of those , less than 2% die. The rest can get well at home.

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Jim Bowie said:

The rest can get well at home.

That is the attitude they are taking, I agree....which totally ignores asymptomatic "carriers"  (another word they are all avoiding)…..which may be one of the larger issues both now and in the future, both from these people and the recovered ones who still test positive.     The understanding of the implications of both of these groups, is not at all yet clear.

Saying that there are 30% false negatives as a justification for not testing, is another straw man argument.     With enough sample size, one can easily account for that, while the tests are being improved to lower that issue.     

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