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Disciplined countries like Mexico winning the Covid-19 battle: navy chief


Jim Bowie
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3 hours ago, Jim Bowie said:

And, we are sure these are close to accurate? You trust them?

They aren't accurate anywhere. But it's all we have to go one right now. Multiply it by 4 or even 10, that's probably more accurate.

There are plenty of people who are asymptomatic and those are most likely the ones who are the most responsible for spreading this around. People who are actually feeling quite sick aren't out and about. A lots of people who might have mild symptoms, but aren't feeling that sick, may never go to to a doctor or hospital, so they won't get counted.

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 https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/mexicans-setting-an-example-for-the-world-amlo/

 

López Obrador commended Mexicans for staying at home, one day after thousands of people descended on fish markets.López Obrador commended Mexicans for staying at home, one day after thousands of people descended on fish markets.

By staying at home, Mexicans setting an example for the world: AMLO

 

The president also claimed—wrongly—that Mexico is among the countries least affected by Covid-19
 
Published on Monday, April 13, 2020

The behavior of Mexicans in response to the coronavirus crisis is setting an example for the world, President López Obrador said on Saturday.

“I want to thank the people a lot, all Mexicans; the behavior of the majority of Mexicans, the vast majority, is really exemplary because you’re following the [social distancing] recommendations to the letter – not going out, staying at home, looking after ourselves, keeping a healthy distance,” he said in a video message posted to social media.

López Obrador said that Guerrero Governor Héctor Astudillo told him that the beaches of Acapulco were empty on Good Friday and Easter Saturday, adding “here in Mexico City, [people’s] movement is minimal ...

Without any qualifications to his claim, the president said that Mexico is among the 10 countries with the fewest Covid-19 cases and coronavirus-related deaths, an assertion that is incorrect on both counts.

Among around 180 countries with at least one case of Covid-19, Mexico had the 37th highest number on Monday morning, according to datacomplied by the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.  The Sunday tally of 296 deaths placed Mexico below just 23 other countries in terms of fatalities.

López Obrador’s claim that people’s movement is minimal is also misleading. Hordes of people descended on seafood markets including the Nueva Viga market in Mexico City and the Mextepec market near Toluca, México state, on Good Friday, while some citizens didn’t heed the call not to travel over the Easter weekend.

There was an exodus of Guadalajara residents to the coastal resort city of Puerto Vallarta, the newspaper Milenio reported, while many Mexico City dwellers traveled to the state of Morelos, causing some towns to erect blockades to prevent entry."

 Things “are going well for us, despite everything.”

However, Deputy Health Minister Hugo López-Gatell said on Saturday that social distancing recommendations “are not being respected by everyone” and called on state governments to help enforce the measures.

“In some states we are seeing progress … but above all in the northern area of the country there are many factories still operating …” Businesses not engaged in essential activities were supposed to close during the month-long emergency period that comes to an end April 30.

The “most important thing” for now, the president said, is to overcome the health crisis. Confronting the economic crisis will come later, he added.

“Have confidence that we’re doing things in a professional manner, with a lot of responsibility to protect our people. The main aim is to save lives, … the economic recovery will come later,” López Obrador said."

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12 hours ago, mattoleriver said:

Just curious, what are the other 10%?

Good catch of my typo: 58%, 42%--in line with other countries' gender breakdown. I've watched each of these medical press conferences run by the lead epidemiologists and have learned a lot, including the differences in how Mexico (and European countries) reach their calculations (Mexico uses a predictive multiplier of 8.2% of a statistical sample) and testing vs the USA (actual results of those tested.) The methods are very different, yet the reasoning behind the methodology is interesting. I highly recommend watching these nightly, hour-long conferences or, for stats updated daily, go to coronavirus.gob.mx or download the app: COVID-19MX. (That link is also available on the .gob.mx website.)

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On 4/13/2020 at 9:03 PM, Jim Bowie said:

And, we are sure these are close to accurate? You trust them?

 

On 4/13/2020 at 9:12 PM, Jim Bowie said:

"Specialists from the National Autonomous University of Mexico ( UNAM ) assured that the epidemic due to COVID-19 has spread throughout the country but the cases have not been properly registered, since they present as acute respiratory infection (ARI).

In a statement, members of the institution’s Scientific Research Coordination (CIC) said that in recent weeks there has been a “continuous increase” in ARI cases .

“This trend does not correspond to any seasonal pattern and in the context of the SARS-VOC-2 pandemic it must be assumed that it represents the extent of the infection in the population,” concludes the analysis carried out by the specialists.

According to the analysis, in the last week there has been an increase of more than 150,000 cases of ARIs in the country compared to the average of previous years.

According to the analysis of the CIC of UNAM, the notable increase in registered cases constitutes indirect evidence of the true level of the extent of COVID-19 in Mexico.

As of Monday in Mexico, the official number of COVID-19 cases was 4,661, with a total of 296 deaths."

 

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Numbers are always interesting, even when they differ radically based on the source.

IMO, we won't know near the "true" numbers until the pandemic has run it's course, only then will we have a near estimate in Mexico.

I believe the numbers coming from the U.S., Canada and most of Europe are probably correct.

Just as in the 1918 pandemic, there will never be a finite number. Today, we need to be more interested in saving lives, and this starts with the health-care professionals. Save one doctor or nurse, and you may be saving 10 "civilians." 

The only statistic that we can be sure of is that for each person that dies, the mortality rate is 100%.

I would also suggest caution in what one posts about AMLO least that person be considered to be getting involved in Mexican politics.

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Apparently the numbers up north could be greatly understated as well. Isn't so that a lot of folks who catch the Corona Virus, although very infectious, never show any symptoms and therefor have no motivation to be tested?  Is this what you all have been hearing as well?

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58 minutes ago, johanson said:

Apparently the numbers up north could be greatly understated as well. Isn't so that a lot of folks who catch the Corona Virus, although very infectious, never show any symptoms and therefor have no motivation to be tested?  Is this what you all have been hearing as well?

Sadly Pete the reported numbers of deaths at Nursing facilities are horrendous and beginning to sound like death camps

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1 hour ago, johanson said:

Apparently the numbers up north could be greatly understated as well. Isn't so that a lot of folks who catch the Corona Virus, although very infectious, never show any symptoms and therefor have no motivation to be tested?  Is this what you all have been hearing as well?

Yes Pete. Some estimates are now in the 50% range of people who  never experience symptoms or have a minor symptom for a few hours.

If we ever find a way to count them we may find this disease death rate is not so high as the figures are now. 

The CDC estimates flu related deaths in the USA between Oct 1 2019 and April  2020 are between 39 million and 56 million cases with between 24,000 and 64,000  deaths. By comparison covid 19 cases 700,000 and just under 38,000 deaths.  

 

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3 hours ago, Mostlylost said:

Yes Pete. Some estimates are now in the 50% range of people who  never experience symptoms or have a minor symptom for a few hours.

If we ever find a way to count them we may find this disease death rate is not so high as the figures are now. 

The CDC estimates flu related deaths in the USA between Oct 1 2019 and April  2020 are between 39 million and 56 million cases with between 24,000 and 64,000  deaths. By comparison covid 19 cases 700,000 and just under 38,000 deaths.  

 

So, if the new study out of Stanford in CA is close to correct, then as many as 59,500,000 people in the US could have/had the virus, with 38,000 deaths. That would mean this virus, although spreading much more rapidly, is much less a killer than the regular flu. Wouldn't that be wonderful if it actually turns out to be correct !

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7 minutes ago, Jim Bowie said:

So, if the new study out of Stanford in CA is close to correct, then as many as 59,500,000 people in the US could have/had the virus, with 38,000 deaths. That would mean this virus, although spreading much more rapidly, is much less a kill than the regular flu. Wouldn't that be wonderful if it actually turns out to be correct !

Yes. May, might, could, estimate, guesstimate. In the meantime I will keep this old body home.

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It would be a blessing if the stats change with widespread testing. What is not known, though, is whether having had it, the immunity (if any) is permanent or short lived. If short lived then the merry-go-round will continue unfortunately. Be safe and be pro active by wearing a mask when going out and only go out when absolutely necessary. I am only going out every two weeks to grocery shop and I go well armed.

The mid west states in the U.S. are starting to get hammered now. So sad to see this happening.

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1 hour ago, Jim Bowie said:

So, if the new study out of Stanford in CA is close to correct, then as many as 59,500,000 people in the US could have/had the virus, with 38,000 deaths. That would mean this virus, although spreading much more rapidly, is much less a kill than the regular flu. Wouldn't that be wonderful if it actually turns out to be correct !

Yes, it would be wonderful, but just like all the asymptomatic cases aren't being counted, there are COVID deaths that aren't being counted as such, either. People who are dying at home and never got tested to know if that's what they died of. I don't think we'll ever know exact numbers. 

But what I do know is that it's not like the flu, and there is nothing to support the notion that it's less deadly. If it were, hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed, medical personnel wouldn't be crying out for protective equipment and dying themselves, there wouldn't be refrigerator trucks full of dead bodies, and mass graves wouldn't be being dug. We've really never experienced anything like this before. We have numbers for yearly flu deaths, but we're only less than four months into 2020, so I think it's too early to make any predictions about what the death rate will be. 

Like Ferret said, it's the fast rate of infection in such a short period of time that makes this different. And it seems like people go from feeling perfectly well to being incredibly sick really quickly, too.

And even when people have a bad case of the flu, the average person can usually ride it out at home. Seems like when people start to have bad COVID symptoms, they get worse really quickly and have to be hospitalized. 

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 https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEATC5HsHGgwoNLu_qO2ScMIqFggEKg4IACoGCAowl6p7MN-zCTDlkko?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

"A new study in California has found the number of people infected with coronavirus may be tens of times higher than previously thought.

The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.

When will California emerge from the coronavirus crisis? What models can – and can't – predict

To ease the sprawling lockdowns currently in place to stop the spread of Covid-19, health officials must first determine how many people have been infected. Large studies of the prevalence of the virus within a region could play a key role, researchers say.

“This has implications for learning how far we are in the course of the epidemic,” said Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study. “It has implications for epidemic models that are being used to design policies and estimate what it means for our healthcare system.”

The study marks the first large-scale study of its kind, researchers said. The study was conducted by identifying antibodies in healthy individuals through a finger prick test, which indicated whether they had already contracted and recovered from the virus.

At the time of the study, Santa Clara county had 1,094 confirmed cases of Covid-19, resulting in 50 deaths. But based on the rate of people who have antibodies, it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April – a number approximately 50 to 80 times higher.""

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First day calls to the Jalisco hotline for testing 517. Second day 274.

They had 120 show up for tests and scheduled 6 tests in homes first day.

April 15 sent 33 tests to lab ....all negative. April 16 117 tests sent ...results not published yet.

Note there was one call from Ixtlahuacan. None from lakeside

 

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This is something else to throw a wrinkle into logic...

https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

On the subject of the following test, I have just spent a half an hour searching for the link where it gave the NAME of the test used. Can't find it but, at the time, I did look it up and got the pdf from the manufacturers website... the manufacturer is Boditech and the test is the ichroma COVID-19 ab and I cannot post the pdf here.

There are quite some glaring limitations of this test including false positives due to "past or present infection with non-sars CoV-2 coronavirus strains such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E." In other words, I would not rely on this particular test to say with certainty that you had Covid 19 antibodies. Sigh.

 

7 hours ago, AlanMexicali said:

 https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEATC5HsHGgwoNLu_qO2ScMIqFggEKg4IACoGCAowl6p7MN-zCTDlkko?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

"A new study in California has found the number of people infected with coronavirus may be tens of times higher than previously thought.

The study from Stanford University, which was released Friday and has yet to be peer reviewed, tested samples from 3,330 people in Santa Clara county and found the virus was 50 to 85 times more common than official figures indicated.

When will California emerge from the coronavirus crisis? What models can – and can't – predict

To ease the sprawling lockdowns currently in place to stop the spread of Covid-19, health officials must first determine how many people have been infected. Large studies of the prevalence of the virus within a region could play a key role, researchers say.

“This has implications for learning how far we are in the course of the epidemic,” said Eran Bendavid, the associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study. “It has implications for epidemic models that are being used to design policies and estimate what it means for our healthcare system.”

The study marks the first large-scale study of its kind, researchers said. The study was conducted by identifying antibodies in healthy individuals through a finger prick test, which indicated whether they had already contracted and recovered from the virus.

At the time of the study, Santa Clara county had 1,094 confirmed cases of Covid-19, resulting in 50 deaths. But based on the rate of people who have antibodies, it is likely that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected in Santa Clara county by early April – a number approximately 50 to 80 times higher.""

 

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On 4/11/2020 at 2:03 PM, Mostlylost said:

The order in Jalisco for covid deaths is the body must be burried or cremated within 8 hours of death.

I doubt they can keep up if it really hit. In France the delay right now is 10 days. The coffins with the deads are piled up in refrigerated trucks. My brother is going to be cremated 10 days later and 80km from Paris as Paris is even more behind.. 

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Saw an ER physician on tv yesterday. He said in his experience (just that, nothing more) the greatest risk factor by far seemed to be obesity. Greater than age, diabetes, etc.

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2 hours ago, pappysmarket said:

Saw an ER physician on tv yesterday. He said in his experience (just that, nothing more) the greatest risk factor by far seemed to be obesity. Greater than age, diabetes, etc.

It never ceases to amaze me on trips to Texas I usually bump into a 300lb shopper in WalMart in an electric cart with a basket full of jumbo sized bags of potato chips and a gallon of Blue Bell ice cream.  🤔

 

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42 minutes ago, Kiko said:

It never ceases to amaze me on trips to Texas I usually bump into a 300lb shopper in WalMart in an electric cart with a basket full of jumbo sized bags of potato chips and a gallon of Blue Bell ice cream.  🤔

 

Yeah, they say those are the ones going on ventilators and once you're on, many don't come off until they're pronounced. Plenty here in Texas for sure but my memory of Mexicans and ex-pats is somewhat similar. YMMV

PS  Can Blue Bell possibly be bad for you?

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