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Italy is sending the world a warning about covid-19

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In the past couple of weeks a number of folks on this forum have pooh-poohed the pandemic and said it is "overblown" and not as bad as people described as "alarmists" have said. Here is a story that ran today in the Huffington Post. Doctors in Italy, the country with the second worst outbreak in the world, are sending a warning to the rest of the world. Their country is shut down and they just had the highest single day of deaths in the crisis, higher than China at its peak. Their message is that it is only a matter of time before other countries get hit like Italy unless they take drastic steps now. They estimate that the US is probably 13-16 days behind Italy. Mexico is probably a bit further out than that, but we really don't know because the testing here has been pitifully small in numbers and little action has been taken to restrict large events and encourage social distancing.The Italian doctors' description of what is happening there is chilling. 

Italy Has Been Trying To Send Us A Warning. Will We Listen?

The country with the world's second-worst COVID-19 outbreak is imploring the United States and the rest of the world not to make the same mistakes. Here is the story.

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Well if you read up on Italy, a few interesting things emerge.  First the country has the oldest population in Europe and that population is denser around Milan.  Secondly it now appears the medical system there did not notice an upsurge of pneumonia as corona virus until it had spread a great deal.  So they were very late in taking the needed steps to bring it under control.  China was a bit tardy as well but when they acted the action of isolating cases and limiting social interaction was very thorough.

Finally, the socialized medicine system in Italy was shown to be woefully inadequate for the number of cases and a number of older patients have not received any treatment at all.

https://www.businessinsider.com/prioritizing-covid-19-patients-based-age-likely-wont-fly-us-2020-3

I'm always skeptical of anything I see in that source for the reason they don't seem to research things well and have serious bias issues.  For example I'll wager that piece mentioned none of the above even though all of this has been discussed in other sources.  It is a mistake to equate Italy to the U.S. where the response has been far more rapid, starting with the early travel ban imposed on travel from China.

Other countries are taking drastic steps which is why I think in 2-3 weeks we will see a pattern more like China's and less like Italy's.  

Interesting the two cases from Guadalajara are both returning Europe travelers.

 

 

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Mainecoons, you are extremely deluded if you think the US response has been "rapid". A couple weeks ago the POS was saying it was all an overblown hoax created by the Dems to derail the election. Today, in his meeting with US governors, he told them if they needed medical supplies, they should find them themselves. And the madness that is taking place at US airports, where thousands of US citizens were forced to wait for hours, in packed conditions, with zero protection as far as spreading diease, was insane and irresponsible and probably substantially upped the number of cases that will surface. It's too late now for US entry travel bans- that should have been done not only by the US, but worldwide, weeks ago. It's now in the US, there have been deaths, and it's the US residents who are spreading it around, some of them still under the impression that it's some "liberal media hype". 

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We will have parabolic growth in the number of cases in the US. Once it starts you’ll start to see the number of cases doubling every 7-10 days. Mainecoons’ reaction will not be fast enough to run for cover. We’ll check on him in a few months to see how he’s doing.

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1 hour ago, mudgirl said:

Mainecoons, you are extremely deluded if you think the US response has been "rapid". A couple weeks ago the POS was saying it was all an overblown hoax created by the Dems to derail the election. Today, in his meeting with US governors, he told them if they needed medical supplies, they should find them themselves. And the madness that is taking place at US airports, where thousands of US citizens were forced to wait for hours, in packed conditions, with zero protection as far as spreading diease, was insane and irresponsible and probably substantially upped the number of cases that will surface. It's too late now for US entry travel bans- that should have been done not only by the US, but worldwide, weeks ago. It's now in the US, there have been deaths, and it's the US residents who are spreading it around, some of them still under the impression that it's some "liberal media hype". 

Incorrect.  Even one of yours pointed out he did not call it a hoax.  He did suggest the politicizing of it by his opponents is one.

  https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-remark/

Also false about the governors.  He told them to try getting medical supplies and we (Feds) will be backing you.  The U.S. governing system is a partnership between states and Federal government, it is logical to expect states to also help round up the needed stuff.  Many hands are better than few.

Quote

"Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment — try getting it yourselves," Trump told the governors during a phone call, The New York Times reported. "We will be backing you, but try getting it yourselves. Points of sales, much better, much more direct if you can get it yourself."

Thanks for the excellent demonstration of the power of fake news with the gullible and partisan.

BTW you didn't address a single point that I made about equating the U.S. to Italy and the source piece in the OP.

We'll see shortly about the rest.

 

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30 minutes ago, Jreboll said:

We will have parabolic growth in the number of cases in the US. Once it starts you’ll start to see the number of cases doubling every 7-10 days. Mainecoons’ reaction will not be fast enough to run for cover. We’ll check on him in a few months to see how he’s doing.

Thank you for your concern.  :D 

 

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Quote in todays Washington Post:

Mainecoons, with all due respect to your thoughts that we are not likely to experience what is going on in Italy:

“When you look at the projections, there’s every chance that we could be Italy,” the U.S. surgeon general warned Monday. Widespread social distancing could help change that trajectory, he said."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/16/coronavirus-latest-news/

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9 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

Thank you for your concern.  :D 

 

I should have said exponential growth and not parabolic. Sorry. 

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We'll see Jim.  What does it mean, "we'll be Italy?"  Our population is far larger and younger.  We have a different medical system.  The population density of Italy, how close people are crowded together, is nearly 7 times that of the U.S.  

Do you understand what he meant or the point he was making?  If one actually goes and reads his comments he was calling for a more aggressive response, more like South Korea.

Surgeon General Jerome Adams warned Monday "there's every chance" the trajectory of the coronavirus in the U.S. could mirror that of Italy—where COVID-19 infections have topped 24,000—unless urgent public health recommendations are heeded.

With the novel coronavirus so far infecting roughly 3,800 people and killing at least 68 in the U.S., "We are at a critical inflection point in this country," Adams told Fox News' "Fox & Friends."

Adams contrasted the responses taken by Italy and South Korea as cautionary tales. South has been praised for its rapid and extensive coronavirus testing rollout and ability to limit the death toll of the virus. Experts within Italy, the second most affected country after China, have urged other nations not to make that country's mistakes and wait on aggressive containment measures.

"We are where Italy was two weeks ago in terms of our numbers, and we have a choice to make as a nation," said Adams. "Do we want to go the direction of South Korea and really be aggressive and lower our mortality rates? Or do we want to go the direction of Italy?"

"And when you look at the projections," Adams continued, there's every chance that we could be Italy but there's every hope that we will be South Korea if people actually listen, if people actually social distance, if people do the basic public health measures that we've all been talking about... such as washing your hands, such as covering your cough, and cleaning surfaces."

 

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The difference here, Jim, is the Surgeon General is talking about what MIGHT happen if we respond weakly as Italy did, not even recognizing they had a problem for too long.  That mistake was not made in the U.S.  The U.S. responded quickly with important travel restrictions from the initial source of the virus.  The response of the government overall, if not perfect, is faster than in 2009 for H1N1.  That one killed over 12,000.

You need to view his comments in the context he is calling for more stringent measures, not telling you he has medical knowledge which confirms the U.S. WILL track Italy.  He is exhorting us to emulate South Korea and push harder on social isolation.

Understand the difference?  And BTW notice his comments about Italy seem to confirm what I posted about your reference.

We're doing everything recommended in the last sentence.  Hope the rest of you are too.

 

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Greetings from Tokio again. 

There is only one country, I can imagine so far,  that have controlled or have taken effective countermeasures to the virus  is Taiwan. Fortunately or unfortunately they had sad experience with Sars in 2003 if I remember correct.

All other nations including Japan, US, Italy, etc have made some kind of failures and mistakes, lack of communications, misinformation, logistics control of healthcare products, and so on. Even the government made mistakes so the ordinary people do the same naturally.  I found some questionable posts on the virus in the past that is why I made some posts on this board.

There were only 2+1 infected people from China+Macau in Italy at the end of January (reported officially) who were released later and there was "0" case until Feb 20. But now,,,

Don't be pessimistic which leads nowhere. We are still suffering from the virus in Tokyo but I am having fun as in the past. 

"Know your enemy, know thyself, and you shall not fear a hundred battles"   derived from Sun Tzu, "The Art of War" 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jreboll said:

I should have said exponential growth and not parabolic. Sorry. 

Actually if you look at the curves you are closer with parabolic.  :D 

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The people calling the pandemic a hoax are largely on Fox News. This from Media Matters:

  • Just days ago, Fox & Friends host Ainsley Earhardt said that now is "actually the safest time to fly."
  • Fox prime-time host Sean Hannity claimed people are faking concern about coronavirus just to “bludgeon Trump with this new hoax.”
  • On Hannity, Fox News medical correspondent Marc Siegel said that the “worst case scenario” with coronavirus is that “it could be the flu.” 
  • Fox host Pete Hegseth downplayed the impact of coronavirus: “I feel like the more I learn about this, the less there is to worry about.”
  • Fox Nation host Tammy Bruce told Fox & Friends that “The president's gotten the country healthy, healthy enough of course to withstand this.”
  • Fox Nation host Tomi Lahren said that she is more concerned with stepping on a heroin needle than coronavirus.
  • Fox "straight news" anchor Ed Henry said that two people dying from COVID-19 in Florida wasn't a big deal because they had traveled recently.
  • Fox Business host Charles Payne suggested that people take advantage of low gas prices and "go somewhere" during the pandemic.

 

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Enjoy your panic.  We shall see.  That Italy reference just reinforces how that particularly country mishandled this thing. 

Quote

Residents of the community of only 16,000 people have been ordered to stay in their homes. It's believed this is where the Italian coronavirus outbreak began on Feb. 18, when a 38-year old athletic male with breathing problems was repeatedly turned away from his doctor's office and the local hospital without being tested. He unknowingly spread COVID-19 to dozens of people over several days. 

According to a hospital administrator in the area, Dr. Lorenzo Casani,  "We know that Patient 1 went in and out at least three or four times from the emergency room, so he spread the virus to other patients and also to the health-care workers."

In Italy, the virus spread quickly from the smaller towns in the north to the big city of Milan. Then it exploded. 

"Well, you know, because we were watching it on TV from China, we saw them building up two hospitals in a week and I said, 'Well this is crazy,'" said Dr. Giacomo Grasselli, who leads Milan's COVID-19 task force.

But if you want to believe everyone is doing that in the face of factual evidence to the contrary go ahead.

I suggest you all turn off the TV and get on with your lives.

I can promise you I can find just as much stupid crap from all of the networks as Fox but I have better things to do.  I don't watch any of them.  It really does amuse me to watch all of you with your particular point of view go nuts when one lousy network doesn't parrot the party line like the ones you all watch.  Damn, free speech sure scares the crap out of you, eh?  Worse than Corona Virus I think.   :D 

 

 

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And y'all keep obsessing on the U.S. because you can't get over the last election.  Don't worry about what's going on right under your noses, no.  Venting non stop TDS is much more important.

Quote

As recently as last week, López Obrador was dismissing the need for caution with statements like, “You have to hug, nothing is going to happen.”

The president has apparently taken his own advice. Video circulated on social media over the weekend showing López Obrador embracing and kissing supporters at a rally, where he declared, “The misfortunes, the pandemics… are not going to do anything to us.”

All of the confirmed cases in Mexico so far have come from travelers arriving from Italy, Spain, and the United States, yet López Obrador’s administration has imposed no international travel restrictions nor taken any steps to tighten the border. According to one news report, passengers on a flight that arrived Friday in Mexico City from Spain—which imposed sweeping emergency restrictions over the weekend in response to a surging death toll—passed through passport control and customs with no health surveys or temperature screenings.

 

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/16/mexico-is-dangerously-unprepared-for-the-inevitable-wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak/

:D 

 

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7 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

And y'all keep obsessing on the U.S. because you can't get over the last election.

Yes, we suffer from Deranged Derangement.

 

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1 hour ago, Mainecoons said:

free speech sure scares the crap out of you, eh? 

Free speech, when it consists of stupid, ill-informed ideas put forth by stupid people with no ability for rational thought is indeed frightening because so many other stupid people believe it.

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MC, didn't someone write a book titled "Arguing With $%&/()s"?

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Our niece is a PA in Florida and with a closed office is attending patients from home by phone.

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