Population predictions anyone ?

[ea93105]

Wondering what you all think will happen lakeside in the next year....

1) More people moving here than leaving

2) no change overall

3) more people leaving than coming..

Also if 1), what type of demographic changes do you predict if any...( more renters than buyers for example ?) 

 

[dichosalocura]

In the last 2 years we have had a considerable wave of immigrants moving to this area.  Many of those immigrants are American retirees coming for various reasons.  The so called "Mexican Honeymoon" can last around 2 years más o menos.  That is when they decide whether they love or hate México.  Often, there are many that will conclude that Lakeside is too noisy or congested for their likes.  We have not had any major crime wave, nothing like back in 2011 when some left the area in fear.  I think people will continue coming to this area, be them Mexicans or expats.  I see this area continuing to grow. For the good or the bad.

[sm1mex]

I think more are coming than leaving.  There was a billboard in the states that said "Don't come to Ajijic, we are full"  :-))

[CHILLIN]

A lot will depend on the strength of the U.S. $. If the economy flops, so will the $ , things will no longer be such a bargain. 

I can' t wait to get rid of my glasses next year.

It will be a 2020 year!

[ea93105]

Given how much the Mexican economy depends on the US, I think the peso will follow the dollar, no?

Maybe a tanking US economy will increase immigration to here since cost of living in the US will become more of a burden

 

[geeser]

On 8/14/2019 at 4:12 PM, ea93105 said:

Wondering what you all think will happen lakeside in the next year....

1) More people moving here than leaving

2) no change overall

3) more people leaving than coming..

Also if 1), what type of demographic changes do you predict if any...( more renters than buyers for example ?) 

 

 More people moving here than leaving

[Aquaponicsman]

The realtors I have spoken with said that we used to have more Americans than Canadians -- 60% Americans to 40% Canadians and now that number has shifted to 60% Canadians vs 40% Americans... but also there have been a lot of wealthier people from Guadalajara moving lakeside, as well.

Needless to say, these are merely personal observations from Realtors, without any scientific data that I am aware of, but it aligns with my observations, as well.

The Drudge Report had a linked headline today, "She's 63 and living by beach in Mexico on $1,000 a month: 'Can't imagine living in U.S. again'..."

(Some gal in Mazatlán) But, such well-published stories will certainly entice many Americans to consider moving to Mexico.

There are 10,000 Baby-Boomers retiring every day in the USA. [Baby boomers are defined as people born between 1946 and 1964.]

About 77 million Americans were born in this time period.

Many cannot afford to live in the USA, and half cannot even afford a $400 medical emergency expense, according to some news reports. 

I would suspect  many will be seeking more affordable living conditions (and certainly less expensive medical care) and move to areas where they will feel comfortable, i.e., well-established expat communities.

According to my same real estate friends, rental rates are going through the roof... to such an extent that many retirees on fixed incomes can no longer afford to live in Ajijic and are being forced into outlying communities. 

Not that this is necessarily a bad thing. I have a friend who moved from Ajijic to Riberas del Pillar and she would not stop saying, "I can park... oh my goodness, I can park!" <g>

So, to answer the OP's initial question: YES, I think more people will be moving here.

Renters vs Buyers? That is a tough one to answer. A wise person rents here first before buying, to make sure they like where they are planning to buy. That said, with the higher minimum income immigration requirements to be able to live here, I suspect there will be more long-term buyers and lots of 6-mo tourist visa renters who decide they cannot meet the minimum requirements on their Social Security checks alone ($1000/mo as referenced in the article above, is insufficient income to be allowed remain in Mexico as a foreigner.)

 

[Bisbee Gal]

11 hours ago, Aquaponicsman said:

There are 10,000 Baby-Boomers retiring every day in the USA. [Baby boomers are defined as people born between 1946 and 1964.]

About 77 million Americans were born in this time period.

The actual statistic is that 10,000 baby boomers are ELIGIBLE for retirement every day, meaning they turn 65 years old.      https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/06/21/social-security-feels-pinch-as-baby-boomers-clock-out-for-good/#12ec106a4995

Another stat is that more and more Americans are now working longer or expect to work longer.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-22/america-s-elderly-are-twice-as-likely-to-work-now-than-in-1985  

[Bisbee Gal]

17 hours ago, ea93105 said:

Given how much the Mexican economy depends on the US, I think the peso will follow the dollar, no?

Maybe a tanking US economy will increase immigration to here since cost of living in the US will become more of a burden

 

I agree it depends on the US economy, but a tanking economy in the US means falling US home sales and lower sales prices.  Since home sales here are almost always cash-only, buyers often need to be able to cash-out of their US home.  Also a US recession and a severe stock market fall, makes people feel a bit insecure and not likely to risk buying a home with cash in a foreign country (here or elsewhere).