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peso advisory for year 2020, US government may devalue dollar

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President Donald Trump is not the only one who wants a weaker U.S. dollar in order to help American exporters compete with China. A pair of senators will introduce a bipartisan bill on Wednesday to lower the value of the U.S dollar through a tax on foreign investments.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-bill-aims-to-weaken-us-dollar-and-fight-back-against-currency-manipulation-102828031.html

 

i do not have a crystal ball, when or if this may happen. but a weaker dollar means a stronger peso. are we going back to around 15 peso to the dollars in the next two years

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I asked the president of the Mexican bank I use in Ajijic, what she thought would happen. She suggested that there could be some variation but over time the exchange rate should be close to what it is now.

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On 7/31/2019 at 8:01 AM, Jreboll said:

We may, but, Mexico which depends on exports to US may also weaken the peso to stay competitive.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.jornada.com.mx/amp/fmi-rebaja-prevision-del-pib-de-mexico-por-cambio-de-politicas-3560.html

Google Translation:

"IMF lowers Mexico's GDP forecast due to policy changes

In 2019 the economy will grow 1.6%, half a percentage point less than forecast; next year it will be 1.9, he reported.

Apr 09, 2019, 08:36 

The IMF released its semiannual report "Panorama of the world economy", at the beginning of the Spring Meeting held in Washington. Afp photo

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced on Tuesday the forecast of growth of the Mexican economy for 2019 and 2020, in a review motivated by the change of perception in the direction of public policies under the new government.

In 2019, Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) - the broadest measure of economic performance - will grow 1.6 percent, half a percentage point less than expected in January and 0.9 points below the forecast for last October, the IMF reported.

By 2020, the growth will be 1.9 percent, lower by 0.3 and 0.8 points compared to last January and October forecasts, the agency added, in its semiannual World Economic Outlook report, announced at the beginning of the Meeting of Spring, which takes place in Washington.

In the case of Mexico, growth is now expected to remain below 2 percent per year for the period of 2019 and 2020, a decrease close to a percentage point compared to last October's forecasts, the report said.

"This change, in part, reflects the change in perceptions regarding the direction of policies under the new administration" of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, which began in December 2018.

 

https://countryeconomy.com/gdp/mexico?year=2016

"Mexico: GDP increases 2.9% 2016

Gross Domestic Product of Mexico grew 2.9% in 2016 compared to last year. This rate is 4 -tenths of one percent less than the figure of 3.3% published in 2015.

The GDP figure in 2016 was $1,077,830 million, Mexico is number 15 in the ranking of GDP of the 196 countries that we publish. The absolute value of GDP in Mexico dropped $92,740 million with respect to 2015.

The GDP per capita of Mexico in 2016 was $8,815,  $859 less than in 2015, when it was $9,674. To view the evolution of the GDP per capita, it is interesting to look back a few years and compare these data with those of 2006 when the GDP per capita in Mexico was $8,997."

The downturn of the Mexican economy will effect the exchange rate in a negative way. IMO

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All the world’s economies are experiencing hardships, including the US. You seem to dwell on Mexico’s economic problems when the rest of the world isn’t doing much better.  All these trade wars and currency manipulations cause problems for everyone and persons like you are the rebel rousers who take advantage to promote their political agenda.

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Annual GDP Mexico
Date Annual GDP GDP Growth (%)
2016 1,077,830M.$ 2.9%
2015 1,170,570M.$ 3.3%
2014 1,314,570M.$ 2.8%
2013 1,274,440M.$ 1.4%
2012 1,201,090M.$ 3.6%
2011 1,180,490M.$ 3.7%
2010 1,057,800M.$ 5.1%
2009 900,047M.$ -5.3%

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On 7/31/2019 at 12:23 PM, Jreboll said:

All the world’s economies are experiencing hardships, including the US. You seem to dwell on Mexico’s economic problems when the rest of the world isn’t doing much better.  All these trade wars and currency manipulations cause problems for everyone and persons like you are the rebel rousers who take advantage to promote their political agenda.

 
 
   
 
 
 
2019
2020
2021
2022
 
 
Not true!
 
 
 
 
 
Not close to all counties are effected by what you claim.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ZWE 191 Zimbabwe -5.249 3.265 4.165 4.352 4.000 4.000 Africa
ZMB 104 Zambia 3.088 2.862 2.851 2.704 2.586 2.485 Africa
YEM 143 Yemen 2.057 10.049 8.501 6.664 6.683 3.701 Asia
VNM 15 Vietnam 6.500 6.500 6.500 6.500 6.500 6.500 Asia
VEN 193 Venezuela -25.000 -10.000 -5.000 -2.000 -1.500 -1.500 South America
VUT 105 Vanuatu 3.000 2.800 2.800 2.800 2.800 2.800 Oceania
UZB 40 Uzbekistan 5.000 5.500 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 Asia
URY 149 Uruguay 1.900 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000 South America
USA 131 United States 2.331 1.871 1.766 1.640 1.615 1.565 North America
GBR 168 United Kingdom 1.177 1.402 1.543 1.556 1.587 1.594 Europe
ARE 114 United Arab Emirates 2.849 3.322 3.030 2.898 2.799 2.662 Asia
UKR 120 Ukraine 2.709 2.990 3.090 3.183 3.300 3.279 Europe
UGA 21 Uganda 6.288 6.241 6.129 6.039 6.324 6.725 Africa
TUV 59 Tuvalu 4.072 4.380 4.244 4.143 3.894 2.746 Oceania
TKM 22 Turkmenistan 6.284 6.036 5.510 5.603 5.701 5.719 Asia
TUR 188 Turkey -2.537 2.541 2.961 3.008 3.492 3.501 Europe
TUN 118 Tunisia 2.742 3.245 3.500 4.100 4.100 4.100 Africa
TTO 180 Trinidad and Tobago 0.008 1.486 2.286 1.979 1.617 1.662 North America
TON 50 Tonga 4.553 4.905 3.834 2.870 1.723 1.085 Oceania
TGO 37 Togo 5.049 5.300 5.400 5.400 5.400 5.400 Africa
TLS 41 Timor-Leste 5.000 4.800 4.800 4.800 4.800 4.800 Asia
GMB 32 The Gambia 5.395 5.245 5.023 4.816 4.817 4.781 Africa
BHS 141 The Bahamas 2.100 1.600 1.500 1.500 1.500 1.500 North America
THA 86 Thailand 3.471 3.546 3.495 3.495 3.556 3.649 Asia
TZA 64 Tanzania 3.996 4.209 4.323 4.878 4.873 4.889 Africa
TJK 44 Tajikistan 5.000 4.500 4.500 4.500 4.000 4.000 Asia
TWN 126 Taiwan Province of China 2.505 2.523 2.427 2.280 2.238 2.119 Asia
STP 61 São Tomé and Príncipe 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 Africa
CHE 171 Switzerland 1.058 1.549 1.600 1.600 1.600 1.600 Europe
SWE 169 Sweden 1.170 1.777 1.869 2.017 2.015 2.022 Europe
SUR 137 Suriname 2.200 2.500 2.100 2.500 3.000 3.000 South America
SDN 187 Sudan -2.276 -1.256 -0.664 0.875 1.070 1.507 Africa
VCT 136 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 2.255 2.439 2.296 2.308 2.320 2.332 North America
LCA 94 St. Lucia 3.319 2.726 2.109 1.539 1.484 1.478 North America
KNA 80 St. Kitts and Nevis 3.500 3.500 3.000 2.700 2.703 2.713 North America
LKA 81 Sri Lanka 3.500 4.000 4.260 4.470 4.630 4.790 Asia
ESP 140 Spain 2.131 1.875 1.748 1.672 1.687 1.648 Europe
SSD 2 South Sudan 8.782 5.162 6.938 5.887 6.825 4.971 Africa
ZAF 167 South Africa 1.200 1.500 1.800 1.800 1.800 1.809 Africa
SOM 82 Somalia 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 3.500 Africa
SLB 113 Solomon Islands 2.882 2.760 2.660 2.694 2.778 2.884 Oceania
SVN 91 Slovenia 3.387 2.830 2.669 2.290 2.129 2.138 Europe
SVK 75 Slovak Republic 3.691 3.460 3.251 3.151 3.051 2.500 Europe
SGP 133 Singapore 2.312 2.362 2.500 2.638 2.581 2.568 Asia
SLE 31 Sierra Leone 5.428 5.370 5.138 5.136 5.112 5.091 Africa
SYC 88 Seychelles 3.431 3.300 4.118 4.000 3.802 3.557 Africa
SRB 83 Serbia 3.499 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 Europe
SEN 9 Senegal 6.930 7.484 7.085 11.552 10.350 5.983 Africa
SAU 152 Saudi Arabia 1.783 2.124 2.234 2.232 2.329 2.349 Asia
SMR 173 San Marino 0.787 0.699 0.599 0.499 0.499 0.499 Europe
WSM 97 Samoa 3.256 4.647 2.192 2.230 2.239 2.239 Oceania
RWA 4 Rwanda 7.800 8.100 8.200 8.000 7.500 7.500 Africa
RUS 159 Russia 1.619 1.707 1.650 1.575 1.645 1.645 Europe
ROU 103 Romania 3.100 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.001 3.000 Europe
COG 30 Republic of Congo 5.448 1.549 1.883 -0.033 1.215 2.228 Africa
QAT 122 Qatar 2.643 3.171 3.318 2.661 2.285 2.987 Asia
PRI 185 Puerto Rico -1.147 -0.693 -0.775 -0.775 -0.753 -0.753 North America
PRT 157 Portugal 1.677 1.500 1.400 1.400 1.400 1.400 Europe
POL 71 Poland 3.769 3.138 2.833 2.811 2.772 2.777 Europe
PHL 16 Philippines 6.476 6.609 6.737 6.719 6.770 6.785 Asia
PER 66 Peru 3.933 3.976 3.957 3.901 3.808 3.760 South America
PRY 85 Paraguay 3.490 3.998 3.995 3.993 4.041 4.022 South America
PNG 73 Papua New Guinea 3.767 3.150 3.600 3.667 3.768 3.921 Oceania
PAN 25 Panama 6.000 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.500 North America
PLW 146 Palau 2.000 2.500 2.200 2.000 2.000 2.000 Oceania
PAK 111 Pakistan 2.905 2.813 2.781 2.700 2.620 2.540 Asia
OMN 170 Oman 1.098 6.210 2.758 1.234 1.414 1.736 Asia
NOR 145 Norway 2.009 1.864 1.759 1.705 1.660 1.670 Europe
MKD 106 North Macedonia 3.000 3.100 3.190 3.300 3.400 3.540 Europe
NGA 139 Nigeria 2.147 2.536 2.441 2.743 2.551 2.569 Africa
NER 14 Niger 6.532 6.006 5.566 11.034 6.798 5.514 Africa
NIC 190 Nicaragua -5.000 -0.200 1.100 1.700 2.000 3.000 North America
NZL 125 New Zealand 2.519 2.924 2.845 2.520 2.487 2.532 Oceania
NLD 151 Netherlands 1.809 1.689 1.489 1.546 1.453 1.487 Europe
NPL 13 Nepal 6.536 6.263 4.528 4.475 5.002 5.022 Asia
NRU 184 Nauru -1.019 0.085 0.650 1.275 1.665 1.990 Oceania
NAM 162 Namibia 1.380 2.027 3.112 3.288 3.264 3.302 Africa
MMR 18 Myanmar 6.448 6.593 6.732 6.868 6.934 6.956 Asia
MOZ 60 Mozambique 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 9.434 11.666 Africa
MAR 99 Morocco 3.180 3.827 4.143 4.266 4.389 4.500 Africa
MNE 117 Montenegro 2.780 2.520 2.900 3.200 3.200 2.900 Europe
MNG 24 Mongolia 6.250 4.949 5.000 4.953 5.685 5.462 Asia
MDA 79 Moldova 3.500 3.800 3.800 3.800 3.800 3.800 Europe
FSM 166 Micronesia 1.226 0.705 0.710 0.600 0.600 0.600 Oceania
MEX 158 Mexico 1.627 1.935 2.356 2.643 2.741 2.740 North America
MUS 69 Mauritius 3.860 3.930 4.011 4.011 4.011 4.011 Africa
MRT 19 Mauritania 6.354 4.705 5.122 10.409 6.737 8.090 Africa
MHL 134 Marshall Islands 2.302 2.005 1.848 1.646 1.246 1.346 Oceania
MLT 35 Malta 5.189 4.444 3.756 3.466 3.259 3.156 Europe
MLI 43 Mali 5.000 4.900 4.800 4.800 4.800 4.800 Africa
MDV 20 Maldives 6.303 5.544 5.516 5.530 5.490 5.520 Asia
MYS 47 Malaysia 4.660 4.800 4.840 4.840 4.840 4.840 Asia
MWI 63 Malawi 4.000 5.000 5.500 6.000 6.500 6.500 Africa
MDG 34 Madagascar 5.193 5.259 5.138 4.854 4.837 4.806 Africa
MAC 53 Macao SAR 4.302 4.151 4.126 4.114 4.116 4.135 Asia
LUX 121 Luxembourg 2.701 2.754 2.678 2.650 2.595 2.625 Europe
LTU 110 Lithuania 2.918 2.628 2.622 2.225 2.185 2.007 Europe
LBY 55 Libya 4.270 1.401 1.437 1.473 1.510 1.547 Africa
LBR 177 Liberia 0.440 1.553 1.253 -1.264 -0.495 3.750 Africa
LSO 68 Lesotho 3.867 0.272 2.776 2.870 2.223 1.706 Africa
LBN 163 Lebanon 1.300 1.950 2.500 2.900 3.100 3.250 Asia
LVA 100 Latvia 3.166 3.149 3.053 2.991 3.022 3.049 Europe
LAO 11 Lao P.D.R. 6.720 6.821 6.781 6.775 6.754 6.760 Asia
KGZ 74 Kyrgyz Republic 3.759 3.388 3.779 4.580 3.354 3.354 Asia
KWT 129 Kuwait 2.453 2.928 2.888 2.520 2.741 2.880 Asia
UVK 57 Kosovo 4.200 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 Europe
KOR 124 Korea 2.552 2.849 2.853 2.838 2.936 2.908 Asia
KIR 135 Kiribati 2.273 2.324 2.045 1.931 1.940 1.809 Oceania
KEN 28 Kenya 5.837 5.937 6.203 6.316 6.017 5.977 Africa
KAZ 98 Kazakhstan 3.204 3.208 3.295 3.307 4.553 4.472 Asia
JOR 138 Jordan 2.200 2.400 2.600 2.800 3.000 3.000 Asia
JPN 172 Japan 0.977 0.450 0.538 0.507 0.526 0.521 Asia
JAM 154 Jamaica 1.735 1.912 2.175 2.325 2.350 2.350 North America
ITA 179 Italy 0.087 0.909 0.659 0.606 0.582 0.648 Europe
ISR 96 Israel 3.300 3.301 3.132 3.111 3.054 2.998 Asia
IRN 192 Islamic Republic of Iran -6.005 0.194 0.858 0.967 0.973 1.083 Asia
IRL 58 Ireland 4.147 3.448 3.125 2.869 2.671 2.712 Europe
IRQ 115 Iraq 2.798 8.124 2.336 2.099 1.833 1.851 Asia
IDN 33 Indonesia 5.237 5.172 5.207 5.289 5.307 5.292 Asia
IND 8 India 7.257 7.489 7.740 7.731 7.742 7.737 Asia
ISL 156 Iceland 1.704 2.902 2.677 2.522 2.524 2.519 Europe
HUN 77 Hungary 3.600 2.700 2.400 2.200 2.200 2.200 Europe
HKG 119 Hong Kong SAR 2.727 2.998 3.018 3.016 2.960 2.990 Asia
HND 93 Honduras 3.360 3.427 3.496 3.566 3.637 3.710 North America
HTI 160 Haiti 1.476 1.468 1.512 1.502 1.604 1.594 North America
GUY 70 Guyana 3.815 29.580 23.566 12.976 29.672 17.937 South America
GNB 42 Guinea-Bissau 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 Africa
GIN 27 Guinea 5.920 6.034 6.000 5.305 4.997 4.957 Africa
GTM 84 Guatemala 3.490 3.630 3.800 3.628 3.510 3.500 North America
GRD 56 Grenada 4.218 2.405 2.739 2.729 2.685 2.685 North America
GRC 130 Greece 2.404 2.158 1.632 1.216 1.238 1.168 Europe
GHA 1 Ghana 8.790 5.837 4.430 4.468 5.016 3.778 Africa
DEU 174 Germany 0.754 1.440 1.503 1.440 1.304 1.156 Europe
GEO 48 Georgia 4.591 5.001 5.200 5.200 5.173 5.200 Europe
GAB 101 Gabon 3.145 3.864 4.076 4.482 4.463 4.354 Africa
FRA 164 France 1.297 1.413 1.461 1.520 1.529 1.550 Europe
FIN 148 Finland 1.943 1.731 1.393 1.257 1.264 1.262 Europe
FJI 89 Fiji 3.400 3.300 3.300 3.200 3.200 3.200 Oceania
ETH 5 Ethiopia 7.723 7.467 7.040 7.004 6.994 7.004 Africa
SWZ 182 Eswatini -0.440 0.160 0.902 1.933 2.187 2.228 Africa
EST 108 Estonia 3.000 2.900 2.800 2.800 2.800 2.800 Europe
ERI 72 Eritrea 3.768 4.054 4.450 5.001 4.076 4.361 Africa
GNQ 189 Equatorial Guinea -3.973 -4.675 -5.140 -5.566 -3.159 1.475 Africa
SLV 127 El Salvador 2.500 2.300 2.200 2.200 2.200 2.200 North America
EGY 29 Egypt 5.488 5.890 6.000 6.012 5.992 6.044 Africa
ECU 183 Ecuador -0.485 0.162 1.205 2.654 2.276 2.105 South America
DOM 36 Dominican Republic 5.113 4.990 5.037 5.000 5.000 5.000 North America
DMA 3 Dominica 7.989 7.010 4.340 3.782 1.587 1.493 North America
DJI 12 Djibouti 6.700 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 Africa
DNK 155 Denmark 1.725 1.795 1.632 1.606 1.596 1.631 Europe
COD 52 Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.339 4.409 4.477 4.619 4.724 4.867 Africa
CIV 6 Côte d'Ivoire 7.479 7.174 6.967 6.737 6.534 6.461 Africa
CZE 112 Czech Republic 2.895 2.686 2.512 2.499 2.529 2.517 Europe
CYP 87 Cyprus 3.463 3.338 2.902 2.616 2.486 2.378 Europe
HRV 123 Croatia 2.620 2.500 2.400 2.200 2.000 2.021 Europe
CRI 109 Costa Rica 2.925 2.817 3.016 3.117 3.337 3.537 North America
COM 116 Comoros 2.797 2.900 3.101 3.201 3.300 3.300 Africa
COL 78 Colombia 3.537 3.649 3.749 3.749 3.749 3.649 South America
CHN 23 China 6.267 6.119 6.000 5.750 5.600 5.500 Asia
CHL 90 Chile 3.397 3.240 2.995 3.001 2.984 3.042 South America
TCD 51 Chad 4.461 6.045 4.932 5.478 4.239 3.835 Africa
CAF 38 Central African Republic 5.044 4.952 4.969 5.022 5.040 5.045 Africa
CAN 161 Canada 1.458 1.930 1.787 1.637 1.600 1.600 North America
CMR 54 Cameroon 4.299 4.736 4.892 5.102 5.313 5.521 Africa
KHM 10 Cambodia 6.833 6.733 6.601 6.417 6.216 6.039 Asia
CPV 39 Cabo Verde 5.019 4.965 4.993 5.016 5.042 5.017 Africa
BDI 178 Burundi 0.419 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 0.500 Africa
BFA 26 Burkina Faso 5.988 5.988 6.029 6.034 6.000 6.000 Africa
BGR 95 Bulgaria 3.300 3.000 2.800 2.800 2.800 2.800 Europe
BRN 46 Brunei Darussalam 4.801 6.633 7.601 5.919 3.877 2.191 Asia
BRA 144 Brazil 2.055 2.534 2.218 2.218 2.218 2.218 South America
BWA 67 Botswana 3.914 4.100 3.994 4.230 5.442 3.866 Africa
BIH 102 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.100 3.200 3.300 3.400 3.500 3.500 Europe
BOL 62 Bolivia 4.000 3.900 3.800 3.700 3.700 3.700 South America
BTN 45 Bhutan 4.816 6.335 6.016 7.211 7.467 6.521 Asia
BEN 17 Benin 6.454 6.526 6.527 6.508 6.483 6.540 Africa
BLZ 128 Belize 2.497 2.096 1.788 1.691 1.712 1.687 North America
BEL 165 Belgium 1.291 1.390 1.474 1.505 1.518 1.513 Europe
BLR 153 Belarus 1.756 2.245 2.122 1.951 2.001 1.998 Europe
BRB 181 Barbados -0.098 0.600 1.500 1.840 1.840 1.840 North America
BGD 7 Bangladesh 7.289 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 7.000 Asia
BHR 150 Bahrain 1.845 2.098 2.355 2.447 2.792 2.973 Asia
AZE 92 Azerbaijan 3.381 3.075 2.097 1.573 1.495 1.659 Europe
AUT 147 Austria 1.976 1.700 1.550 1.460 1.460 1.460 Europe
AUS 142 Australia 2.072 2.759 2.762 2.641 2.650 2.638 Oceania
ABW 175 Aruba 0.700 0.900 1.100 1.100 1.100 1.100 Africa
ARM 49 Armenia 4.556 4.500 4.500 4.500 4.500 4.500 Europe
ARG 186 Argentina -1.201 2.164 3.217 3.402 3.649 3.562 South America
ATG 65 Antigua and Barbuda 3.982 3.305 2.499 2.000 2.000 2.000 North America
AGO 176 Angola 0.444 2.881 2.219 2.962 3.801 3.862 Africa
DZA 132 Algeria 2.316 1.777 1.369 1.085 0.387 0.432 Africa
ALB 76 Albania 3.664 3.860 3.856 3.963 3.973 3.991 Europe
AFG 107 Afghanistan 3.000 3.500 3.997 4.495 4.992 5.489 Asia

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