Partial NAFTA Deal To Be Announced Today

[Bisbee Gal]

Two-sided and only covers portions of NAFTA.  Canada expected to rejoin talks soon. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/27/us/politics/us-mexico-nafta-deal.html

Quote

 

Aug. 27, 2018

WASHINGTON — The United States and Mexico have reached agreement to revise key portions of the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement and a preliminary deal could be announced on Monday, a crucial step toward revamping a trade pact that has appeared on the brink of collapse during the past year of negotiations.

Still, a preliminary agreement between the United States and Mexico would fall far short of actually revising Nafta. The preliminary agreement still excludes Canada, which is also a party to Nafta but has been absent from talks held in Washington in recent weeks. It centers on the rules governing the automobile industry and leaves aside other contentious issues that affect all three countries.

 

 

[snowyco]

Smoke ... mirrors ... and puffery ...   or some substance ??

Trump just announced there 
" ~ will be ~ an "Mexico-USA Trade Agreement" ...   but WH spokespeople are clarifying that it is just an "understanding to agree" ... with Mexico.

=> There is NO real agreement. ... There are no formal details worked out, (just proposals), especially on the Sunset Clause ... There are no deadlines nor timelines to actually create a real agreement.

=> Trump has NO legal authority to make an agreement with just Mexico, because his hands have always been tied by the US law & the current NAFTA agreement.

=> By US law, Trump can currently only make a tri-lateral agreement, simultaneously, with both Mexico & Canada due to contractual obligations under NAFTA. ... Before Trump can legally negotiate any terms for a bilateral agreement with just Mexico, he must give Congress 6 months (180 day) notice.   No such notice has been given.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/21/a-us-mexico-deal-not-without-congress.html

=> Because Trump has zerocurrent  legal authority to negotiate a bi-lateral deal with Mexico, and NO specific terms have actually been worked with Mexico 
... Today's announcement has elements of smoke & mirrors ... until there's a real agreement that BOTH Canada & Mexico agree to.

... only then, can Trump & Co. start the legal 90-day clock to notify Congress of the "terms of the agreement". (per Bloomberg)

Fortunately, there is a path to a real agreement, but that path runs right through Ottawa.
Will Trudeau stick to principles & specifics that are beneficial to all three nationalities: Mexicans, USA-nians & Canadians?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-nafta-announcement-mexico-trade-deal-today-live-updates-2018-08-27/

 

[snowyco]

Per Bloomberg ... Lighthizer, the White House's top trade negotiator, has just leaked some unofficial details on the "US-Mexico Understanding to make a Trade Agreement"

~  16 yr Trade Agreement(s) with 6 year reviews:   The USA has abandoned their previous demands for a "5-yr Sunset Clause".   Instead, Lighthizer says the new "Trade Agreement" is proposed to last for 16 years ...  Further, every 6 years there would be a "tri-lateral review" of the "Trade Agreement",  and if the results of "tri-lateral review" are positive, then the "Trade Agreement" would be re-authorized for another 16 years.

~  Regardless of Trump's announcement of a "US Mexico Trade Agreement",  instead, Lighthizer (WH's top negotiator) acknowledges that there is no agreement without Canada's approval, 
and

=> the official US policy now is that they "hope Canada will agree to" the understandings that Mexico has worked out with the White House.