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Rainy season kicking off this weeknd


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Whole bunch of moisture up there this morning.  I haven't found the WC to be of much use in anticipating the weather here.  The satellite views show heavy moisture all over central Mexico.  I think we're looking good for a nice kick off this weekend.

 

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4 hours ago, luvsdawgs said:

I always say it starts around my mother's birthday, which is tomorrow. The forecast for tomorrow is rain in the afternoon and night. I always understood we need three gully washers for the rainy season to be officially started.

Or is the rainy season due to a particular weather formation (El Nino?) that comes this time of year and that sticks with us until late September/early October?

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No but an El Niño can help it.  Right now the reports are we are in an ENSO neutral state since the La Niña of last winter wound down and the prediction is about 50-50 for an El Niño to form later this year.

The anomaly right now is the Pacific off of the Mexican coast is warmer than usual hence the formation of these tropical storms there so early.  They actually may be suppressing our normal rainy season start, the easterlies are pretty weak still.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Status as of early June.

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