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Nobody talking the possible early start of the rainy season? ajijicweather.com

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In my opinion, I think it is early,  even though the rain is from the west. Weather patterns are changing. 90% chance again today.

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I sure hope you guys are right, but this is very very early and I fear a temporary sunny hot period or two between now and the middle of June, the normal time it starts.

Again, here's hoping you are right. :) 

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2 minutes ago, ajijicbound said:

In my opinion, I think it is early,  even though the rain is from the west. Weather patterns are changing. 90% chance again today.

The problem is that nobody has so far texted Mother Nature and informed that this is premature precipitation.

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I would say it's just an indication that the season is coming, still over a month away. On the flip side, an early rainy season means a shorter rainy season, from all reports.

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1 hour ago, gringal said:

The problem is that nobody has so far texted Mother Nature and informed that this is premature precipitation.

Premature what??

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I sure love getting some nice early rains.  The plants are very happy.

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AZ has a rainy season, too, called the Monsoon season. 

For many years the start of the rainy season was calculated this way:

Three consecutive days with an average dew point of 55 degrees or higher.  A "look-back" calculation....you didn't know if the monsoon started until at least 3 days after it actually did. 

It was confusing to a lot of people so in 2008, the NWS simply picked a date for the 'start' of the season (based on years of records)...June 15th.  

I would think that 55 degrees or higher average dew point calculation could work here as well.  

However, I cannot find a weather site that shows the average daily dew point.  Anyone know of one that does? 

BTW, the old and sorely missed chapalaweather.net had historic daily files where this may have been possible.  

 

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4 minutes ago, Bisbee Gal said:

AZ has a rainy season, too, called the Monsoon season. 

For many years the start of the rainy season was calculated this way:

Three consecutive days with an average dew point of 55 degrees or higher.  A "look-back" calculation....you didn't know if the monsoon started until at least 3 days after it actually did. 

It was confusing to a lot of people so in 2008, the NWS simply picked a date for the 'start' of the season (based on years of records)...June 15th.  

I would think that 55 degrees or higher average dew point calculation could work here as well.  

However, I cannot find a weather site that shows the average daily dew point.  Anyone know of one that does? 

BTW, the old and sorely missed chapalaweather.net had historic daily files where this may have been possible.  

 

I think I have been given to understand that the rainy season is defined by a particular storm system not by a particular humidity or dew point having been reached. Do any others have that understanding?  We have some real experts here like Mainecoons.

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7 minutes ago, Bisbee Gal said:

However, I cannot find a weather site that shows the average daily dew point.  Anyone know of one that does?

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/MMGL/2018/5/7/DailyHistory.html?cm_ven=localwx_history

Scroll down to Dew Point.

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35 minutes ago, bdmowers said:

I think I have been given to understand that the rainy season is defined by a particular storm system not by a particular humidity or dew point having been reached. Do any others have that understanding?  We have some real experts here like Mainecoons.

I was a trained NWS weather spotter in AZ since 2003 and am still a certified spotter in FL. 

You can read about AZ monsoon here.   https://www.tripsavvy.com/arizona-monsoon-facts-2683732

BTW, the word "monsoon" is derived from Arabic and literally means, "season."

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17 minutes ago, Bisbee Gal said:

I was a trained NWS weather spotter in AZ since 2003 and am still a certified spotter in FL. 

You can read about AZ monsoon here.  

BTW, the word "monsoon" is derived from Arabic and literally means, "season."

https://www.tripsavvy.com/arizona-monsoon-facts-2683732

So I guess I should stop saying, "monsoon season". 

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This is definitely not the beginning of the rainy season as the pattern of air and moisture flow is Pacific not the east to west flow of the regular rainy season.  It has been caused by a combination of stalled front #48 and some weak low pressure disturbances.  It is winding down.

Sure was a nice break from the May heat and dryness though!

Edit:  Long range forecast is for wetter than normal every month but August, up to 20 percent total above average.

https://www.informador.mx/jalisco/Segun-pronosticos-el-temporal-de-2018-sera-mas-lluvioso-20180507-0098.html

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Looks like the front dropped through this area last night, wonderful rains,  looks like about 2 cm here.

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20 minutes ago, AllenHoffman said:

Wow do I have a lot to look forward to in retirement Gazing out the window all day wondering if it is going to rain today.

It's a job and somebody's got to do it!  Enjoy.😄

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1 hour ago, AllenHoffman said:

Wow do I have a lot to look forward to in retirement Gazing out the window all day wondering if it is going to rain today.

Yes and watch the grass grow. 😀

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7 hours ago, Tiny said:

Yes and watch the grass grow. 😀

Or the roses, vegetables, fruit trees, flowers.......

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2 minutes ago, bdmowers said:

Or the roses, vegetables, fruit trees, flowers.......

Those don't grow for me. Black thumb. hahaha

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The nicest first week of May I've seen here. Has felt like springtime back home: puffy clouds, cool breeze, fresh smells. Loving it.

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On 5/7/2018 at 12:56 PM, AngusMactavish said:
On 5/7/2018 at 12:49 PM, Bisbee Gal said:

For many years the start of the (Arizona) rainy season was calculated this way:

Three consecutive days with an average dew point of 55 degrees or higher.  A "look-back" calculation....you didn't know if the monsoon started until at least 3 days after it actually did. 

Thanks for the link, Angus.

I had wondered if the 55 degree dew point rule used in AZ for the start of their rainy season would apply here.  I went back 10 years at the GDL weather site and here are the dates the rainy season began, applying the AZ rule .  I am not certain this rule should be used here, but the results are interesting.

2007     June 9

2008     June 8

2009     June 10

2010     June 12

2011     June 13

2012     June 13

2013     June 4

2014     May 26

2015     June 8

2016     June 12

2017     June 7

2018     Not yet

 

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