tomgates Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 Nobody talking the possible early start of the rainy season? ajijicweather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajijicbound Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 In my opinion, I think it is early, even though the rain is from the west. Weather patterns are changing. 90% chance again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johanson Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 I sure hope you guys are right, but this is very very early and I fear a temporary sunny hot period or two between now and the middle of June, the normal time it starts. Again, here's hoping you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gringal Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, ajijicbound said: In my opinion, I think it is early, even though the rain is from the west. Weather patterns are changing. 90% chance again today. The problem is that nobody has so far texted Mother Nature and informed that this is premature precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ComputerGuy Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 I would say it's just an indication that the season is coming, still over a month away. On the flip side, an early rainy season means a shorter rainy season, from all reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdmowers Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 1 hour ago, gringal said: The problem is that nobody has so far texted Mother Nature and informed that this is premature precipitation. Premature what?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdmowers Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 I sure love getting some nice early rains. The plants are very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajijicbound Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 Here's the prediction for 6:30 tonight,dowgraded to 80% and 1/4", coming from ESE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bisbee Gal Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 AZ has a rainy season, too, called the Monsoon season. For many years the start of the rainy season was calculated this way: Three consecutive days with an average dew point of 55 degrees or higher. A "look-back" calculation....you didn't know if the monsoon started until at least 3 days after it actually did. It was confusing to a lot of people so in 2008, the NWS simply picked a date for the 'start' of the season (based on years of records)...June 15th. I would think that 55 degrees or higher average dew point calculation could work here as well. However, I cannot find a weather site that shows the average daily dew point. Anyone know of one that does? BTW, the old and sorely missed chapalaweather.net had historic daily files where this may have been possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdmowers Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bisbee Gal said: AZ has a rainy season, too, called the Monsoon season. For many years the start of the rainy season was calculated this way: Three consecutive days with an average dew point of 55 degrees or higher. A "look-back" calculation....you didn't know if the monsoon started until at least 3 days after it actually did. It was confusing to a lot of people so in 2008, the NWS simply picked a date for the 'start' of the season (based on years of records)...June 15th. I would think that 55 degrees or higher average dew point calculation could work here as well. However, I cannot find a weather site that shows the average daily dew point. Anyone know of one that does? BTW, the old and sorely missed chapalaweather.net had historic daily files where this may have been possible. I think I have been given to understand that the rainy season is defined by a particular storm system not by a particular humidity or dew point having been reached. Do any others have that understanding? We have some real experts here like Mainecoons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngusMactavish Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bisbee Gal said: However, I cannot find a weather site that shows the average daily dew point. Anyone know of one that does? https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/MMGL/2018/5/7/DailyHistory.html?cm_ven=localwx_history Scroll down to Dew Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sm1mex Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 1/2 inch night before last and 1/2 inch last night above upper LaFloresta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bisbee Gal Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 35 minutes ago, bdmowers said: I think I have been given to understand that the rainy season is defined by a particular storm system not by a particular humidity or dew point having been reached. Do any others have that understanding? We have some real experts here like Mainecoons. I was a trained NWS weather spotter in AZ since 2003 and am still a certified spotter in FL. You can read about AZ monsoon here. https://www.tripsavvy.com/arizona-monsoon-facts-2683732 BTW, the word "monsoon" is derived from Arabic and literally means, "season." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdmowers Posted May 7, 2018 Report Share Posted May 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bisbee Gal said: I was a trained NWS weather spotter in AZ since 2003 and am still a certified spotter in FL. You can read about AZ monsoon here. BTW, the word "monsoon" is derived from Arabic and literally means, "season." https://www.tripsavvy.com/arizona-monsoon-facts-2683732 So I guess I should stop saying, "monsoon season". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecoons Posted May 8, 2018 Report Share Posted May 8, 2018 This is definitely not the beginning of the rainy season as the pattern of air and moisture flow is Pacific not the east to west flow of the regular rainy season. It has been caused by a combination of stalled front #48 and some weak low pressure disturbances. It is winding down. Sure was a nice break from the May heat and dryness though! Edit: Long range forecast is for wetter than normal every month but August, up to 20 percent total above average. https://www.informador.mx/jalisco/Segun-pronosticos-el-temporal-de-2018-sera-mas-lluvioso-20180507-0098.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wookie Posted May 8, 2018 Report Share Posted May 8, 2018 At the moment it isn't winding down at our house. We re having very heavy rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecoons Posted May 8, 2018 Report Share Posted May 8, 2018 Looks like the front dropped through this area last night, wonderful rains, looks like about 2 cm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllenHoffman Posted May 8, 2018 Report Share Posted May 8, 2018 Wow do I have a lot to look forward to in retirement Gazing out the window all day wondering if it is going to rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gringal Posted May 8, 2018 Report Share Posted May 8, 2018 20 minutes ago, AllenHoffman said: Wow do I have a lot to look forward to in retirement Gazing out the window all day wondering if it is going to rain today. It's a job and somebody's got to do it! Enjoy.😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiny Posted May 8, 2018 Report Share Posted May 8, 2018 1 hour ago, AllenHoffman said: Wow do I have a lot to look forward to in retirement Gazing out the window all day wondering if it is going to rain today. Yes and watch the grass grow. 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdmowers Posted May 9, 2018 Report Share Posted May 9, 2018 7 hours ago, Tiny said: Yes and watch the grass grow. 😀 Or the roses, vegetables, fruit trees, flowers....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiny Posted May 9, 2018 Report Share Posted May 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, bdmowers said: Or the roses, vegetables, fruit trees, flowers....... Those don't grow for me. Black thumb. hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ComputerGuy Posted May 9, 2018 Report Share Posted May 9, 2018 The nicest first week of May I've seen here. Has felt like springtime back home: puffy clouds, cool breeze, fresh smells. Loving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bisbee Gal Posted May 9, 2018 Report Share Posted May 9, 2018 On 5/7/2018 at 12:56 PM, AngusMactavish said: https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/MMGL/2018/5/7/DailyHistory.html?cm_ven=localwx_history On 5/7/2018 at 12:49 PM, Bisbee Gal said: For many years the start of the (Arizona) rainy season was calculated this way: Three consecutive days with an average dew point of 55 degrees or higher. A "look-back" calculation....you didn't know if the monsoon started until at least 3 days after it actually did. Thanks for the link, Angus. I had wondered if the 55 degree dew point rule used in AZ for the start of their rainy season would apply here. I went back 10 years at the GDL weather site and here are the dates the rainy season began, applying the AZ rule . I am not certain this rule should be used here, but the results are interesting. 2007 June 9 2008 June 8 2009 June 10 2010 June 12 2011 June 13 2012 June 13 2013 June 4 2014 May 26 2015 June 8 2016 June 12 2017 June 7 2018 Not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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