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Real Estate BooM


bill_d

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I can't prove this, but the downturn here coincided with the real estate crash in the States.  While many baby boomers were becoming retirement eligible, they could sell their homes and move.  

Most of the housing markets in the states have recovered, so all that built up pressure (to retire and move) is starting to be felt here.  The only thing keeping it from becoming a huge wave is the constant hype in the media stateside about violence in Mexico.

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Mexico has always been a popular choice for expats looking for a better quality of life.   Reasons are varied but they might include taxation, less big-brother government, lower cost of living, a more relaxed culture.  I read in an investment magazine recently that Mexico had the highest number of expats than any other Latin American country with in the neighborhood of 839,000.  Yet I have also seen published data from the U.S. State Department giving the number of US alone expats in Mexico nearing the million mark. Certainly Britain has Brexit and America has some political discord sparking interest.   Mexico is a very diverse and politically stable country in my opinion and therefore an attractive option.  Too, a close drive or flight back north for closer family ties.

I also believe Lake Chapala has a fabulous climate, close proximity to the airport and all that Guadalajara has to offer with lots of green space, parks, zocalos and some very old and beautiful architectural buildings.  Too with US deportations many Mexicans are returning and looking for places to invest.  Too, Tapatios seem to be returning to the area in droves.  Of course this is just my opinion and subject to abuse by some.

 

 

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I was talking to one of the business owners recently and he was saying that he was seeing more younger people with kids that work remotely in the US.

There's a lot less Gringos here today than when I arrived 9 years ago, from what I see.  A lot more prosperous Mexicans is what I see.

Someone is driving a lot more cars than 9 years ago, of that, I'm certain.

There's probably more traffic on a weekday now than on weekends in summer when I arrived.

 

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For what it is worth, I spoke with a long time reputable realtor the other day and she said she has sold more homes in January and February of 2017 than the entire year of 2016.  I asked her point blank "does it have to do with the Orange One" and she said that all but one of her sales was with Canadians and they are paying a 30% premium now.  She felt it had to do with the Baby Boomers and more of them looking for alternatives.

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If you look at what is happening to the housing prices in Canada at the moment, homes down here look like they are "free".  I just saw a story that the average house in one of the west coast Canada cities went up 27% last year.

My best guess is that there's a huge housing bubble building both in the US and Canada.  The last time it popped in 2008, the Peso went from around 10 to 15 in a couple of months and house sales here went to almost nothing.

 

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Canada's housing prices are truly lofty.  I can't imagine how such heavily taxed people can buy them.  You could probably buy a whole village here for the price of one fixer upper in Vancouver.  I actually know someone that sold a tear down 2BR 1BA for nearly a million Canadian.

He laughed all the way to the bank and moved to Mexico.

Sure looks like a bubble to me but when you get away from a few big metro areas on the coasts, U.S. prices could hardly be called a bubble.  Problem there is lack of supply of smaller, cheaper places.  Those big McMansions the boomers loved so well are not in short supply.

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Homes in some portions of the US are also rising into the stratosphere. I'm in N. Colorado and, although we were not hit as hard as many places with the "2008" debacle, homes here along the I25 corridor from N Mex. to Wyoming are skyrocketing in value. My home is probably worth $50k more at the moment than 3 years ago... and rising.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, sm1mex said:

I think NOB people are tired of the politics,every day random violence with multiple deaths from gun shootings and getting into wars all over the world. 

It is much more peaceful and less stress here. 

 Being retired NOB isn't cheap, especially if you don't have substantial savings to supplement Social Security. No expectation that costs will decline, only increase. Sadly retirement years will not get any easier. Not knowing if you have cash reserves to cover the "golden years" ( I say that with a dollop of sarcasm) can create stress. Seems like the ultimate goal is to separate you from your last red cent before you die.

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A lot of specualtion here. Boom! what boom? A lot of Canadians buying? Really? That is silly to ask that if a lot of Canadians were leaving Canada "Could it have anything to do with illegals and refugees ?"

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49 minutes ago, cedros said:

A lot of specualtion here. Boom! what boom? A lot of Canadians buying? Really? That is silly to ask that if a lot of Canadians were leaving Canada "Could it have anything to do with illegals and refugees ?"

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Boom generally implies increased building as well as sales of homes in inventory. In this case I think the increase in sales of existing homes constitutes a "boom". Looking at Chapala MLS and various real estate websites and discussing sales with a few salespeople as well as a company owner, sales are indeed up. I didn't ask who was buying them. Speculate all you want, my reasons for departure were strictly financial, I choose not to be separated from my savings by the medical and insurance industry. When  I can buy a prescription in Mexico for $6.37 USD per month, that my NOB insurance company decided to no longer cover and that cost is now $660 USD a month, well, it was a deciding factor. I might skate under proposed Medicare monthly premium changes, but my wife won't. So if the proposed $1000 a month Medicare premiums are instituted, there is more incentive to be gone and have our Permanente  status. Far more concerning than the other issue proposed.

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The realtors I've talk to don't think there is a boom at all but there are some sales.

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1 hour ago, HookEmHorns said:

Wonder why Canadians are getting out now? Could it have anything to do with illegals and refugees ?

Canada has one of the toughest immigration policies in the world - the only way in is if you are young, healthy, and have the skills Canadian employers are looking for. Doesn't even matter if you are rich any more, that category was eliminated a couple of years ago. The "retirement" category was abandoned in 1998. Canada does accept more than its share of "convention" refugees, who have been vetted for up to two years (papers checked, parental links, ex-neighbours, etc.). The 'undocumented' from Mexico and Central America do have their say, before tribunals, but Canada does not accept "economic" refugees - period. They are not allowed to work while on their Canadian vacation, paid on a welfare pittance, and employers are rigorously searched for illegal employees. What a concept - Eh?.

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3 minutes ago, CHILLIN said:

Canada has one of the toughest immigration policies in the world - the only way in is if you are young, healthy, and have the skills Canadian employers are looking for. Doesn't even matter if you are rich any more, that category was eliminated a couple of years ago. The "retirement" category was abandoned in 1998. Canada does accept more than its share of "convention" refugees, who have been vetted for up to two years (papers checked, parental links, ex-neighbours, etc.). The 'undocumented' from Mexico and Central America do have their say, before tribunals, but Canada does not accept "economic" refugees - period. They are not allowed to work while on their Canadian vacation, paid on a welfare pittance, and employers are rigorously searched for illegal employees. What a concept - Eh?.

I'd highly recommend folks watch Border Patrol Canada. Interesting to see things from their side of the border. LOL. Wink wink.

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2 hours ago, HookEmHorns said:

Curious that if Canada and Mexico have distinct policies on refugees and illegals, and enforce them according to their laws, what seems to be the problem with the USA getting all the flack from enforcing their laws?

Because their laws are very shortsighted and wrongheaded.

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The problem with Canada is that a lot of people from China are laundering money into homes in the west of Canada.  Now, they are buying in eastern Canada also.  There are a lot of empty houses bought that way in western Canada.

The same problem is beginning to show up in Australia now.

Eventually, the bubble will burst and we will see a replay of 2007-2009

 

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For those of us who own homes in Seattle, which is just south of Vancouver, BC, the overflow is impacting us as well.  Between all the new business from Amazon, Microsoft, you name it and those moving south from the greater Vancouver area our real estate is going up like mad. Many who are about to retire are contemplating selling upon retirement, making a large profit, and heading to parts of the world where the weather is better and the cost of living lower. The real estate prices here lakeside are only a small fraction of what they would be up north. This would be an ideal area to move to.  We even can get out hometown TV stations here via Shaw Direct.

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Lacking an open MLS system, conjecture about who, why and how many people are moving here can only be based on anectodal evidence.

I know of two high end homes that sold in the last year. One is a friend from Dallas who had no intention of moving to Mexico but after a visit or 2 he and his wife bought a house. That scenario has been repeated over and over again through the years. If one extrapolates it would seem like the more people that hear about the Lake Chapala area and start visiting, the higher the chances are they'll chuck life NOB and retire here. There are lots of baby boomers out there and even those younger with assets.

My friend sent an email with a comment I thougt might be relevant. They bought a house over a year ago and are finally nearing the end of a spectacular remodel. 

"It is interesting to see how perceptions change over time in regard to where you live and comfort zones. I used to think that I would retire and be in Dallas, probably in this house, for the rest of my life. Now it feels odd to be here and has almost a claustrophobic feeling with all the buildings and traffic and no distance view just the houses all around, not to mention all the people rushing through their lives not having the time to appreciate friends. My wife feels the same way and is ready to get back to Ajijic. She says let's go home now."

Again, only anecdotal but it would seem there is a relationship between those who visit for fun and those who see a way out of the madness anywhere NOB.

To the OP and others. You're welcome. Back on topic...

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12 hours ago, HookEmHorns said:

It that because they are more lenient than either Mexico and Canada? Could you explain the differences?

It is too off topic. We should not be writing about it. Besides you are obviouly ignorant of the facts.

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