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Jim Bowie

Peso Rumors

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What are the latest rumors about The Rise and Fall of the Peso?

 

22 at time of US Election.

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If anyone could forecast at even more than 60% the rise and fall of currencies in the world, they coud be a billionaire in a couple of weeks on the Forex with a very small investment.

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The rumor is that the more likely HRC will win, the stronger the peso will get. Your theory seems to predict DJT.

vamos a ver

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3 hours ago, pappysmarket said:

The rumor is that the more likely HRC will win, the stronger the peso will get. Your theory seems to predict DJT.

vamos a ver

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-drop-as-attention-turns-toward-glut-in-stocks-1474021150

 

"Updated Sept. 16, 2016 12:15 p.m. ET

Oil prices are falling Friday and finished down for the third time in four weeks as increasing exports from OPEC and a shutdown on a major U.S. gasoline pipeline keep weighing on prices.

U.S. crude for October delivery recently lost $1.00, or 2.3%, to $42.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, fell 86 cents, or 1.9%, to $45.71 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe."

 

It has nothing to do with rumors about Hillary or Trump but crude oil prices dropping this week as far as I understand it.

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Yep, that is why the Peso has fallen 4% in the last month, fear DJT will win.

 

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Gringos in SMA and Chapala are the only ones trafficing in Peso rumors.  About 10 days ago Bancomer did a projection thru the end of 2017.  Look it up if you want something more than rumor.

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1 hour ago, Ajijic_hiker said:

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=1m

 

Both your chart of the peso since Sept. 1st. and  above chart of the price of crude oil from Sept. 1st. match each other identically. Proves the rumors are false and simply not true. IMO

 

Odd that when crude oil prices started to fall rapidly on Sept. 8th the peso started to fall rapidly as well. I think the Hillary and Trump contest might effect the US economically is some small ways and not World crude oil prices or the Mexican peso at all. These unproven speculations in the main stream media are just as reliable as Fox News latey.

     
 

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There are so many variables involved in this issue, I cannot even begin to speculate on the out come.  What if the stock market bubble burst?  What if the real estate market takes a dump?  What if Deutsche Bank goes under and that takes down some US banks?  What if the Arabs want their oil paid for in the new gold backed Chinese currency?  What if there is a war in the Middle East?

Now where is my magic eight ball gizmo?

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1 hour ago, rufus said:

There are so many variables involved in this issue, I cannot even begin to speculate on the out come.  What if the stock market bubble burst?  What if the real estate market takes a dump?  What if Deutsche Bank goes under and that takes down some US banks?  What if the Arabs want their oil paid for in the new gold backed Chinese currency?  What if there is a war in the Middle East?

Now where is my magic eight ball gizmo?

From Kill Bill - Rev. Harmony: "Rufus...He's the man!"  

But it was Trump's recent bump in the polls that is the new factor specific to the MXN, hammering it down.  That and the incipient inflation suggested by most series other than core PCE, reinforcing the vague possibility of a miserable 25bp Fed move, bolstering the USD.  Plus 'projected' waning demand for oil, which typically hits the MXN.  Forex, like the rest of the rabidly speculative market constituting financialized capitalism, is a joke.  Trump fits right in.

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Seems to me that I read just today that the peso, around the middle of august, was about 18 and now it is over 19.5. The comment was that decline has coincided with Trump's rapid gains in the polls and the creation of speculation of his impact on NAFTA  and the Mexican illegals NOB sending monies back to Mexico, if he becomes the next US President. But, Alan is always correct, so it is the price of oil only affecting the Peso, nothing to do with Trump and the Peso. Besides, Trump could never win.

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Writing as an active participant in the FX markets who has gladly lost thousands of dollars this week maintaining a USDMXN hedge, I have some feel for the hierarchy of factors whipping the various markets around (central bankers, MOFs, trade balances, commodities, particularly oil, and changes in national leadership, and any rumors or speculative inference regarding these, often as interpreted by 'black boxes' monitoring electronic news feeds. (In grad school at Berkeley in '80s, there were guys who went straight to Wall St. after finishing their PhDs in Fuzzy Logic.Now they are said by some to run the joint)  The domain of financialized capitalism seems to mainly consist in 'playing' the markets themselves as graphs of other participants behaviour. It is speculation cubed, at the speed of light. In real time, the top FX traders in the world with hundreds of professional staff often have no idea why the market is behaving as it is.  As it happened this week, as I actually experienced it, the announcement of a relative improvment in Trumps position, however absurd, seemed to correspond to a decline in the peso. 

For a long and discursive treatment of such issues, consider this article by the master FX trader, George Soros:  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/0ca06172-bfe9-11de-aed2-00144feab49a.html#axzz4KWR8ob5h 

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The Peso follows the price of oil fairly well.  Oil is the major export of MX.

However, there are lots of other factors.  My thought is that the US is going into a recession and the FOREX traders are seeing it.  If that happens, the oil exports will drop and the balance of payments will shift some.  It will probably push the Peso over 20.

When MX raises the interest on the CETAs, the peso strengthens  I've seen the rates go from 2.75% to 4.05 over the past year.

The FOREX market is much, much larger than the stock market and much more volatile.  It is a much better indicator of the financial world than the stock market.

When you have a few minutes, read about the grades of oil.  Oil is not oil.  There are a lot of grades and most MX oil is pretty "dirty", it is cheaper and it is blended into better grades to refine.  The quoted "price of oil" is generally "west Texas intermediate" and bears little relation to MX oil.  Depending on what else is available and the price depends on what MX can sell.

The MX have a reputation for bring genius at playing the oil futures markets so the current prices often have little relationship to what price MX is really selling oil.  

 

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According to English daily news.  Mexican government will cut spending to local governments by 15% or so next year.  Due to oil prices they are worried about bills. This may or may not help the peso but it will hurt us locally with services for sure.  

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I got 19.77 on Saturday on 18,000 pesos. 360.

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