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Britain leaving EU...Peso now over 19 to $US..Over 20+ soon


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Well I always understood that residents from the former parts of the British Empire had some sort of precedence when it came to moving to the U.K. and that would include India.  The NHS sure seems to have a lot of Indian and Pakistani docs.

For sure, you have to love cold and damp and very short days in the winter to live there.  Obviously as a resident of Lakeside I probably wouldn't meet that criteria. :D

In my younger days I did spend a lot of time working over there for the U.S. EPA as a contractor on technology transfer.  I certainly enjoyed it, particularly the pubs and the very walkable villages chocked full of history.

Eating out there, however, was pretty dismal at that time, like 40 years ago.  I've noticed the restaurant scene in the U.K. has improved immensely since that time and certainly a lot of credit goes to immigrants.

I can certainly understand why people from some of these "less desirable" places want to move to the first world countries.  What I don't think a lot of people in the first world understand is that the numbers are so large as to overwhelm them.  Here's a video I found really interesting and easy to understand for putting the numbers in perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPjzfGChGlE

If Mexico continues to advance it may some day be faced with the same tough choices on immigration.  Indeed there is already an immigration issue for Mexico from the failed states of Central America.

On the other hand you have countries like Japan that are so successful in keeping people out that their population is rapidly becoming geriatric beyond the point of no return.  It is estimated that in just a few decades nothing would work to maintain the population and the country will either take in outsiders or simply collapse from old age.

Some demographers argue China has bought the same fate for itself with its one child policy.  However the country is still plenty young enough to regenerate if policies are changed to encourage more children.

Some mornings, particularly after a long moto ride, I sure understand what that could feel like (collapsing from old age). :D

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On 6/24/2016 at 6:37 AM, Mainecoons said:
14 minutes ago, Mainecoons said:

I'm not looking at this day to day.  Longer term trend is up.

http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx

 

That chart show only history.  If you look at the Futures you'll see only a slight upward trend.  It will take a while to recover the 5% lost on Friday.  IMHO, other factors will prevent any substantial strengthening of the Peso.

 

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Guest bennie2

the exit is not complete. parliment has to vote, who knows? can they be trusted? (ha). the globalist elites will plan blackflag events, maybe terror in the streets. :ph34r: later, maybe even war (w/russia)? so far its calm. calm before a storm? they wont give up thier power. there will be more bizarre manipulation w/the markets. interesting, mr. soros (the sugardaddy of the EU) has made a fortune off this. in the short term i see choas, long term good things. this is the shot that was heard around the world. wait, you aint seen nothing yet. america next. nationalism has returned. :D

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My Mexican neighbors said that they heard on the radio that Mexico is considering another devaluation of the peso in about 3 weeks, such as they did in 1994. It could have just been a talk show host voicing his/her opinion, rather than a news report.

 

 

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10 hours ago, bennie2 said:

the exit is not complete. parliment has to vote, who knows? can they be trusted? (ha). the globalist elites will plan blackflag events, maybe terror in the streets. :ph34r: later, maybe even war (w/russia)? so far its calm. calm before a storm? they wont give up thier power. there will be more bizarre manipulation w/the markets. interesting, mr. soros (the sugardaddy of the EU) has made a fortune off this. in the short term i see choas, long term good things. this is the shot that was heard around the world. wait, you aint seen nothing yet. america next. nationalism has returned. :D

Parliament does not vote on it !! Although the government does not even need to abide by it they would be fool hardy not to listen to the electorate.

Both main parties are in complete disarray . The main problems that created this mess were loss of jobs, immigration and the meddling of the eu in domestic issues, and complete distrust in our politicians of all parties. 

The concept of the eu was a great idea making it easy to export goods from one country to its neighbour.using single currency and no import tarrifs. Most uk companies had euro accounts .

Travel was easy. Many social orojects were sponsered by the eu. Some were plain daft but many were good.

The open borders did make life easy but system was abused and now a big threat to security.

Unfortunately the uk has never been european we have always been separated by water,history and different cultures. This attitude still remains for the working class man in the street who has seen the steel  ,shipbuilding and coal industries closed by succesive governments and eu meddling.

Was big descion i just hope its the right one !

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11 hours ago, Aquaponicsman said:

My Mexican neighbors said that they heard on the radio that Mexico is considering another devaluation of the peso in about 3 weeks, such as they did in 1994. It could have just been a talk show host voicing his/her opinion, rather than a news report.

 

 

This is totally ridiculous!  Mexico does not control the value of the Peso.  The Gov't  did in 1994, then removed controls and let the currency float, that is let the free market find its value, as it has to this day.  

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A quote from Winston Churchill : “If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea”.

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http://bonnerandpartners.com/weekend-edition-using-the-impossible-trinity-to-play-mexicos-inevitable-peso-devaluation/

Using the “Impossible Trinity” to Play Mexico’s Inevitable Peso Devaluation

The Mexican Currency Commission (the official body that sets the Mexican exchange rate to the dollar) will meet later this month to decide on whether to extend the peso support program. The Fed is unlikely to back off its rate hike rhetoric before then, so that’s an opportune time to devalue the peso.

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20 hours ago, El Saltos said:

This is totally ridiculous!  Mexico does not control the value of the Peso.  The Gov't  did in 1994, then removed controls and let the currency float, that is let the free market find its value, as it has to this day.  

With very few exceptions from time to time all countries buy or sell currency to raise or lower the value.  Mexico is no exception and is trading Dollars for Pesos to try to slow drop of Peso.  The company I worked for had currency traders to deal with all the different currencies a fortune 100 company would collect.  Yes for the most part currencies float but when things get bad most governments buy currency back to hold value and Mexico does do this and is doing this.  Mexico has a good supply of dollars from tourism, trade, and oil so they can play this game.  Money is flowing into Japan from Brexit and the government is trying to make keep the Yen from getting too high as it affects exports so manipulation can occur both ways.

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Mexico also has room to raise the Cete rate to stabilize the Peso.  Devaluation is a last ditch drastic measure.  With oil prices stabilizing and rising some I don't see that happening.

Longer term, Mexico is pretty solvent fiscally, much more so than the U.S. or Europe.  The biggest issue here is not deficit spending, it is theft by corrupt politicians.  If they ever get a handle on that and money start getting spent on infrastructure and the needs of the people, the future will be bright for this country.  It has very positive demographics compared to Europe, Japan and even China and there's a work ethic here that has been lost in a lot of places.

 

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Yes, Gov'ts all over the world buy and sell their own currency in attempting to limit rapid changes in value.  Mexico has spent 100's of millions (probably billions by now) to prop up the Peso.  You all know the effect has been minimal.

 The assertion made by Aquaponics man was that Mexico was set to DEVALUE the Peso.  I'll repeat my reply:  It has no ability to do that.  This from the Banco de Mexico website:

The Foreign Exchange Commission, made up of officials from the Ministry of Finance and Banco de México, is responsible for foreign exchange policy in Mexico. At the end of 1994, the Commission determined that the exchange rate would be determined by market forces (floating exchange rate/free float regime). This section includes indicators and data on operations most frequently used by exchange rate analysts.

 

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Getting back to the original topic, the peso devaluation is obviously a windfall for expats and (perhaps less obviously) very tough for México. The country is having to cut its budget sharply and of course the dollar-based prices it pays for imports are now far more expensive in peso terms. The old Porfirio Diaz quote ("Poor México: so far from God, so close to the United States") certainly applies. 

http://qz.com/717104/if-you-want-to-know-how-much-to-worry-about-brexit-watch-this-currency/

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Quote

 

Are you all so sure that Great Britain is leaving? The Europeans are not. Talking to friends over in France they are saying that Britain is making steps backwards..it sounds that it is not all over....not yet..Great Britain is trying to back pedal right now..Check out the article from the New York time about it.

 

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23 hours ago, Kevin K said:

Getting back to the original topic, the peso devaluation is obviously a windfall for expats and (perhaps less obviously) very tough for México. The country is having to cut its budget sharply and of course the dollar-based prices it pays for imports are now far more expensive in peso terms. The old Porfirio Diaz quote ("Poor México: so far from God, so close to the United States") certainly applies. 

http://qz.com/717104/if-you-want-to-know-how-much-to-worry-about-brexit-watch-this-currency/

However, you fail to mention that Mexico gets many more Pesos for its oil and other exports now.  The weaker currency has some advantages, it's not all bad news.

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yes it is great for export,unfortunately the price of imrted goods has gone way up. I was at an artisan meeting and all of their imported tools and productneeded to pracice their work has doubled in the last cople of years.

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Facts seem to be more useful than musings & speculations.

The MXN peso did not stay at Friday's one day losses.  

The MXN Peso  is back in the $18 peso : $1 USD range, so the speculations  of a rapid weakening to $20 MXN : $1 USD has not materialized.

The Brexit referendum was not binding.  The UK Parliament must vote whether to stay or leave the EU.

There is no UK Parliament vote scheduled.

The only UK party that can force a UK parliament vote (Stay or Leave) has said that they will not bring the issue to a vote until October.

The unelected EU Commissioners can huff & puff about how much they want the British Parliament to vote,  but the EU's Article 50 clearly specifies that the country desiring to leave ... must FIRST formally notify the EU that they want to leave.

Under the UK Constitution,  the UK Parliament is the only one that can approve the Article 50 formal notification of the EU.

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