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Last Big Storm of Season

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I am in the hills above San Antonio, USA, on hurricane watch with you. Much concerned for what is about to happen there. More concerned for those who seem to be unaware that anything is

happening. Will stay on site and add my energy for as long as you are able to post --- for what that is worth. Feel helpless to help.

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...PATRICIA...
...THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...
...HEADING FOR POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO LATER TODAY...

ep201520_sat.jpg

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So who are we to believe - Sr. Berca wetting his finger, and sticking it out the window (at least I hope that's his finger, otherwise Mrs. Berca will be a very disappointed lady). Or the National Hurricane Center interpreting vast volumes of historic data and live updates from the Hurrican Hunter aircraft reporting from the actual event.

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Hopefully this swift drop off from Cat 5 to TS is still the case. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=12.9&lon=-96.8&zoom=6&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0 Even with a Tropical Storm, you'd expect winds and heavy rain Lakeside.

Hoping that all of our friends on the coast stay safe.

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I don't know about you, but I have never been somewhere where the very center of the hurricane passed over, as it is predicted to do here. Usually, we just get the tail end of hurricanes that stay along the coast, but I think this will be different - with the center passing right over Guadalajara! Isn't the center of the hurricane where all the action is??

Even a "dissipated" hurricane is still quite a storm! Cuidado!!!

As a native Floridian, I have been in the eye of a hurricane. It is a fascinating experience. The entire storm quiets in the eye. You can go outside and the sky is clear. Don't go far though as the storm will begin again but the winds go in the opposite direction.

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We will not know until it gets here. But remember, 3 or 4 inches of rain plus the rain water that comes off the mountains and into the arroyos. If the arroyos have trash and are overgrown....then we have problems.

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Lobos you are totally wrong about CFE, . When we had a tornado destroying our neighborhood, they were working on the electricity as the tornado was leaving and they know about hurricane . They may totally swamped when it happen but I have found them very good in time of desastre. Now if you have a small problem forget it..

Electricity is not a huge deal here most people have gas, we do not need a/c just make sure you have water and stay away from trees. We can survive in Mexico a whole lot better than in the States when the electricity goes out and we are lucky we are not on the coast.

The poor people on the coast are in for a bad ride, I hope they can stay away from danger, they were telling people that at the seed the wind will be cars will fly and people cannot walk so it could be really nasty. Hopefully people will stay safe.

Yes the eye is the place to be, unfortunately hell starts again pretty fast..hurricanes are beautiful and exciting on the coast as long as they do not take your house out..

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Manzanillo, La Manzanilla Barra de Navidad, Lake Chaplala, some of our favorite places in Mexico and home to so many of our friends... My wife Ella and I left Mexico for health and Medicare Ins. otherwise we'd be with you today, instead of only praying for all in the hurricane's path here in Florida.. God Bless Mexico and God bless you all... Stay safe..

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A concerned friend of mine in Norway sent me this link to an Earth view tool with real time (updated every 3 hours) wind direction, strength, and cloud cover. It's interesting to pan around the globe too and see that there are other areas where circular storms are forming or large ridges of colliding wind are occurring:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-104.38,19.88,1550

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The storm is coming from the south so the mountains on the south side of the lake are going to provide a lot of protection and will cut the rainfall significantly. Still, it is looking very wet and windy and the main problem will probably be power outages.

Make sure all your drains are clear and you have plenty of Tequila on hand!

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Ajijic. Thunderstorms turning in to rain and wind squalls towards evening until early morning with thunderstorms through early afternoon tomorrow. Wind velocity and rain estimate unchanged.

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A concerned friend of mine in Norway sent me this link to an Earth view tool with real time (updated every 3 hours) wind direction, strength, and cloud cover. It's interesting to pan around the globe too and see that there are other areas where circular storms are forming or large ridges of colliding wind are occurring:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-104.38,19.88,1550

That is a seriously cool tool and I've added it to my weather links file. Thanks!

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I wouldn't put too much faith in the mountains. This is like a big, bouncing bowling ball that no one can quite predict what will happen. It has the right velocity, with the right spin, and some bad luck on our part, it could be a strike. The "situation room" in Puerto Vallarta have told the Bomberos that this hurricane can, and probably will, jump the Sierra Tuito range on the south fringe of Banderas Bay. That is one formidable piece of rock.

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We have Canadian friends who just arrived at the beach in Sayulita, the road to PV is closed , anyone knows the site where the roads can be checked, Spanish is ok. I told them to go inland and stay put by 3pm but people never listen so anyone has a way to check the road closures? Has the Canadian consulate any number that can be called if they need to check the road conditions?

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JUst heard thet the road going north from Sayulita is closed as well so people in Sayulita need to hunker down as they are trapped..

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I hear they are trying to evacuate Nuevo Vallarta ..... it's just flat beach

They are evacuating Melaque with Proteccion Civil planning on up to 5 meter surf

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They're saying that it's going to be the largest hurricane on record! Hang on to your hats guys. Anyone heard from Elke?

 

Strongest, not lagrest, thank God.

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In case of torrential rains, remember that large, loose boulders always roll downhill when the soil becomes saturated. A decade ago, a lady in Chapala died in her bed as a boulder crashed through her bedroom. And, more recently, remember the tromba that caused such devestation in San Juan Cosala.

Hang in there, but keep an eye on the hills above you.....or get out of the way.

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