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Last Big Storm of Season

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Accuweather estimates Guadalajara could get as much as 2-4 inches of rain over the weekend. A period of about 48 hours. That would be 1-2 inches in 24 hours. One half to one inch in 12 hours. The lake is at 5000 feet and the mountains surrounding it are about 2000 feet more. That is not quite 1.4 miles high of protection. What am I not understanding that some of you seem so concerned about for the Lake Chapala basin?

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That is not quite 1.4 miles high of protection. What am I not understanding that some of you seem so concerned about for the Lake Chapala basin?

Maybe because the hurricane experts as per Jeff Masters blog are predicting 4 to 16 inches of rain.

swath_rain.PATRICIA20E.2015102206.png

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Hi, first post from a casual newbie here. I've lurked reading occasionally over the last several years as an AZ resident with vague thoughts of whether the ex-pat idea might some day appeal to me more than seems practical now. Anyway, I grew up in Florida and have maintained an interest in hurricane events since then. I've looked over the WUnderground links and blogs regarding this storm, then used Google Earth to "swoop" around your Lake Chapala suburbs. Perhaps my thoughts might be of some value? There was a comment about higher elevations protecting the area. To a major extent that's true, surely the circulation will be somewhat disrupted by the time the eye gets as far inland as you are. Windspeed shouldn't be a major danger (although still some) and the Chapala area itself looks "ok" topographically to me, for what that's worth. However, that strip of Ajijic suburbs between the lake and the higher elevations to the north really would worry me, especially the developments along those many ravines cutting through them, perhaps a few houses' width to the east and west of each of them. The factor to keep in mind is that your lakeside is around 5000' elevation with all the canyons going northwards drained from upwards of 8000' peaks. Precipitation is "squeezed" out by wet air moving upslope; if Chapala proper gets 4" of rain at its gauges over a couple of days, the mountains above Ajijic might get 6"-8", as a very rough guess, at least in spots. How stable is the soil in those areas? Have there been patches that have burned off, like people are worried about being the case in Calif for this winter? Have you had recent rains that have saturated the soil making for faster runoff than if it were a bit drier? Will this hurricane's structure get slowed in its forward motion going inland and drop that much more rain from having more time than if it zips through at 25 mph? Are there unstable soils upslope that are at risk of moving en mass as mudslides rather than simply water in the channels? Frankly, I hope folks there encourage anyone feeling at all at risk to evacuate. Put in several days' worth of "preps," too, like fresh water, batteries, canned food, cooking fuel, and so on. Good luck to y'all, hopefully the rain flow won't get out of hand, but I'd say better safe than sorry.

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Thanks for your post. I moved here from a barrier island in South Carolina so I am familiar with hurricanes. Your info is spot on. We will see what happens.

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I know people are discounting the hurricane strength winds, because we're usually protected from them, but this time might be different. http://www.chapalaweather.net/

Note: "The latest track places Patricia closer to PV with winds of 100 MPH putting the Lake area on the edge of the wind cone."

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The wind may be a bit of a problem but a few inches of rain is not even noticed here.

Since we are at the end of the rainy season, we may lose some trees.

I've lived here 8 years and I've seen some real frog stranglers. 1-2" an hour is not much here unless it goes for more than a few hours.

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You can watch the lightning hits here: http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&page_0=30

It will show you about where the center of the storm is in real time. It appears to be a bit farther south than a few hours ago which is not good for us,,,,,,,,

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The wind may be a bit of a problem but a few inches of rain is not even noticed here.

........

Did you check out the graphic that Chillin posted a couple of posts above? We don't know what we'll finally get of course, but the prediction, as of now, is more than "a few inches".

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I'm up late to feed kittens and I just checked the NHC for updates. Boy, is there one. Patricia has gone to a category 5 with winds of 185 mph. As if that wasn't enough, it's still getting stronger. The hurricane folks are saying that it is the strongest hurricane since 1997. Contrary to normal, there may be some serious winds when it gets here. I'm always rooting for more rain here for the Lake, but I am reminded of the saying, "Be careful what you wish for, you might get it." Don't drive in this stuff folks, unless you really must. I'm from Florida and I take these babies seriously.

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This morning's advisory from the Weather Service.

HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.


Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

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In addition to the very good info above, the NHC has officially determined that this is one of the strongest hurricane ever recorded. Lucky us. The winds when this thing hits the coast are predicted to hit 205 mph. As usual, the mountains will stop a lot of that, but I would be surprised (but pleased) if we don't get a lot more wind than we are used too. CFE is going to think they are cursed. I worry about Puerto Vallarta and San Blas. They are on the water and not high. This puppy is going to push some water in front of it.

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Lake Chapala: Rain ends by sunrise tomorrow. Total accumulation 3-5 inches. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph. No rain Saturday or Sunday.

Largest hurricane ever measured. Could be devastating for coastal areas.

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If we get what is predicted we could be out of electricity for a while. Remember, folks, CFE does not know about hurricanes and they are slow to respond anyway.

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I grew up in Miami. I remember running out in the eye to walk the dogs. Beautiful blue sky and clouds overhead for 1/2 hour and slight breeze. The problem with having the eye pass over is that the trees get bent over in one direction and then the wind hits hard in the opposite direction and this snaps them over causing great damage and sometimes ripping them from the ground. I asked my gardener on Wednesday to cut all the oranges off the tree in preparation as I was concerned with it being so close to the house. There must have been a problem with my best Spanish as I returned to find most of the limbs cut off. I had gas and water delivered, stocked up on dog food and bird seed and was surprised that people I talked to didn't know anything about the approaching storm. WalMart was empty and I'm used to crowded stores with empty shelves. I began to feel a little silly, but this morning I'm feeling better that all is prepared. Oops I had better charge my Kindle.

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.......

I began to feel a little silly, but this morning I'm feeling better that all is prepared. Oops I had better charge my Kindle.

I understand exactly. One hopes to strike that delicate balance between over reaction or conversely, being a featured nominee for the 2015 Darwin Awards.

I promised myself to sleep with my clothes on tonight. Mainly because I refuse, under any circumstances, to be one of those people who are interviewed on CNN in their pajamas. For heaven's sake, this is why we were given brains to plan, people.

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Lived over 60 years with hurricanes. You can never predict what the results will be. Especially in our area. You have to remember that folks here know nothing about hurricanes and that can cause problems in itself. Better to be prepared. I hope we will have little damage to deal with but if it is serious then we are going to have big problems. Do not panic....just prepare.

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By all means, walk your dog. When she starts to lift off the ground, probably time to head home. Late afternoon beginning probable.

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Not as simple as when and where. I would expect things to get interesting in afternoon evening. Bet rain will continue all day. Feel sorry for the coast we got a break when the storm turned a little bit west but the coast is going to get the crap knocked out of it. Remember a Tropical storm is still a very severe storm just not a hurriciane. Be careful folks. STuff will be flying on the hills and windows can be hit and break.

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Watching closely here in PV. Looks like landfall will be south of us. Sparks, stay safe!! She is the strongest E. Pacific hurricane on record with current sustained winds of 200 MPH and higher gusts. Looking for an afternoon landfall. Light rain and wind right now in Centro.

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