CHILLIN Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 I don't mean to alarm anyone. What we hope will be the last big storm of the what has been a very quiet season. The five day forecast puts the center directly over Lake Chapala on Saturday 8 am. The journey over the mountains will degrade it to a tropical storm. Chico points out that Hurricane Kenna hit 13 years ago - on October 25. Or maybe the forecasts are completely wrong, and it will veer off into the ocean like the last big storm did. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2015/Tropical-Depression-Twenty-E?map=5day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glyn Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 Hopefully not Saturday we have a wedding to go to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floradude Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 Let's hope for a lot more water from the rivers into the lake. As the wind shifts the currents in the lake the lirio comes and goes along the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adolphsj Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 Skeptical at first, the models look real.....50-80% rain chance at the time of Thriller performance Saturday...think positive.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desertdave Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 Storm is now forecasted to reach a Category 2 hurricane by Friday with 2.43 inches of rain predicted! Fortunately it will dissipate as it moves on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmh Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 In Chiapas we were on green alert last night and this morning but it looks calmer kow, in northern CHiapas we got some road damage and same in some of the roas north of San Cristobal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Berca Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 50% chance of showers Saturday. No thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sea Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 Wunderground still shows thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=20.680000,-103.349998&cm_ven=googleonebox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparks Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 It should dissipate but not according to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desertdave Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 Now this is looking serious. That orange swirl at 2AM Saturday indicates a CAT 2 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparks Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 They downgraded that real fast but it's still "a storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al Berca Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 We seem to go through this so often and the mountains always lessen the impact of anything happening on the coast before it ever gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaykay Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 The wind will subside for the most part. The moisture won't. So, no wind damage, lots of water/rain. The National Hurricane Center thinks that another low might hit us again with whats left of Patrice. At any rate, it might not go where they think it will exactly, but they are pretty sure we will get hit. They have lots of different groups giving predictions, and they are in agreement more than usual. This probably will be the last big one of the yeat. If the damns have to dump, we could really get a nice bump up. It could make a good year better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaykay Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 UPDATE. The National Hurricane Center just updated their forecast on Storm Patricia. It is forming up to move faster and to become (in their words) a Major Hurricane. In NHC talk that would be a Level three hurricane, Its predicted path stays the same which is dead across Guad and us. The increased wind speed doesn't really concern us because the mountains will weaken it, but it should hit the coast now at about 5 PM Friday and get to us Friday night. We can expect all the usual problems with electricity or lack of. This should put some serious water in the River watershed which they will have to release from the damns. Remember, we don't get water unless they have NO room for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparks Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 This Emergency Message is to inform U.S. citizens that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Pacific Coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas, Michoacan to Playa Perula, Jalisco, and a Tropical Storm Watch east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana, Guerrero. Tropical Storm Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero starting Thursday, October 22, into Saturday, October 24. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sea Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 To my totally unknowledgeable eye, the current prediction looks like it accounts for the mountains mitigating storm. It drops from a 3 on the coast to a 1 over us. That's still pretty intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giltner68 Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 This map http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=12.9&lon=-96.8&zoom=6&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0shows more detail and shows it passing between Guad and PV. The mountains will break it up, but the rain remains a factor. In fact, they're predicting Pacific rain from this will fall in Central TX. The strongest winds and most rain are typically in the NE quadrant of the storm as it moves N, so the Lake area falls in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sm1mex Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 Ajijic weather site says "Current models show Patricia passing west of Guadalajara at 1 a.m. Sat. with winds of 90 mph/145 km." Yikes. Coming from hurricane country, my advice is to get gasoline and other stuff for power outage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaykay Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 Good advice from the traveler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHILLIN Posted October 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 If you look on a map, you will see there are two corridors running from the coast to Lake Chapala. The mountains there are low, slowly building to 5,000 feet. The Tuito mountains and some smaller, but still formidable ranges to the east, often block storms coming towards Puerto Vallarta. Puerto Vallarta's vulnerability is storms coming in from the Northwest (Kenna) or directly off the ocean. This direct hit has never happened yet, but if it did the mountains around the Bay would have an exact opposite effect of containing the storm, like water in a swirling basin, and drop all its water in a very short time. So if Patricia finds one of these corridors, or keyholes, then it is going to be a real mess. You know Einstein once said "God does not play dice". This was in reference to a debate on physics, the uncertainty principle. But these days, with these highly unpredictable weather patterns, it sure does look like a game of dice! Here's what Stephen Hawking wrote about it, if you are interested. It is a pretty dense and long read, but I found it very interesting. Print it out cuz you may be reading it by candle or lantern light. http://www.hawking.org.uk/does-god-play-dice.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R2D2 Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 Hurricane Patricia has just been upgraded to Cat 4 , Oct 22nd 2015, 13:30 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezpz Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 I don't know about you, but I have never been somewhere where the very center of the hurricane passed over, as it is predicted to do here. Usually, we just get the tail end of hurricanes that stay along the coast, but I think this will be different - with the center passing right over Guadalajara! Isn't the center of the hurricane where all the action is?? Even a "dissipated" hurricane is still quite a storm! Cuidado!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmh Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 The mountains will tear up the storm but it probably will bring a lot of rain. Here in Chiapas we had 2 ,one from the Pacific and one from the gulf and we got a lot of rains with a lot of landslides. and toned up roads. We had nice weather this morning but it is pouring again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sea Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 Interesting written report. Graph at the end places us in high risk area. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-threat-heightens-risk/53016886 Reminder to tell your friends and neighbors who might not be tuned into the news or this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHILLIN Posted October 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 The latest from Jeff Master's weather blog. What Chelsea Handler would call 'a big, hot mess!" http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3163 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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