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Last Big Storm of Season

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I don't mean to alarm anyone. What we hope will be the last big storm of the what has been a very quiet season. The five day forecast puts the center directly over Lake Chapala on Saturday 8 am. The journey over the mountains will degrade it to a tropical storm. Chico points out that Hurricane Kenna hit 13 years ago - on October 25.

Or maybe the forecasts are completely wrong, and it will veer off into the ocean like the last big storm did.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2015/Tropical-Depression-Twenty-E?map=5day

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In Chiapas we were on green alert last night and this morning but it looks calmer kow, in northern CHiapas we got some road damage and same in some of the roas north of San Cristobal.

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We seem to go through this so often and the mountains always lessen the impact of anything happening on the coast before it ever gets here.

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The wind will subside for the most part. The moisture won't. So, no wind damage, lots of water/rain. The National Hurricane Center thinks that another low might hit us again with whats left of Patrice. At any rate, it might not go where they think it will exactly, but they are pretty sure we will get hit. They have lots of different groups giving predictions, and they are in agreement more than usual. This probably will be the last big one of the yeat. If the damns have to dump, we could really get a nice bump up. It could make a good year better.

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UPDATE. The National Hurricane Center just updated their forecast on Storm Patricia. It is forming up to move faster and to become (in their words) a Major Hurricane. In NHC talk that would be a Level three hurricane, Its predicted path stays the same which is dead across Guad and us. The increased wind speed doesn't really concern us because the mountains will weaken it, but it should hit the coast now at about 5 PM Friday and get to us Friday night. We can expect all the usual problems with electricity or lack of. This should put some serious water in the River watershed which they will have to release from the damns. Remember, we don't get water unless they have NO room for it.

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This Emergency Message is to inform U.S. citizens that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Pacific Coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas, Michoacan to Playa Perula, Jalisco, and a Tropical Storm Watch east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana, Guerrero. Tropical Storm Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero starting Thursday, October 22, into Saturday, October 24. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

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To my totally unknowledgeable eye, the current prediction looks like it accounts for the mountains mitigating storm. It drops from a 3 on the coast to a 1 over us. That's still pretty intense.

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This map http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=12.9&lon=-96.8&zoom=6&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0shows more detail and shows it passing between Guad and PV. The mountains will break it up, but the rain remains a factor. In fact, they're predicting Pacific rain from this will fall in Central TX. The strongest winds and most rain are typically in the NE quadrant of the storm as it moves N, so the Lake area falls in that range.

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Ajijic weather site says "Current models show Patricia passing west of Guadalajara at 1 a.m. Sat. with winds of 90 mph/145 km."

Yikes. Coming from hurricane country, my advice is to get gasoline and other stuff for power outage.

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If you look on a map, you will see there are two corridors running from the coast to Lake Chapala. The mountains there are low, slowly building to 5,000 feet. The Tuito mountains and some smaller, but still formidable ranges to the east, often block storms coming towards Puerto Vallarta. Puerto Vallarta's vulnerability is storms coming in from the Northwest (Kenna) or directly off the ocean. This direct hit has never happened yet, but if it did the mountains around the Bay would have an exact opposite effect of containing the storm, like water in a swirling basin, and drop all its water in a very short time. So if Patricia finds one of these corridors, or keyholes, then it is going to be a real mess.

You know Einstein once said "God does not play dice". This was in reference to a debate on physics, the uncertainty principle. But these days, with these highly unpredictable weather patterns, it sure does look like a game of dice! Here's what Stephen Hawking wrote about it, if you are interested. It is a pretty dense and long read, but I found it very interesting. Print it out cuz you may be reading it by candle or lantern light.

http://www.hawking.org.uk/does-god-play-dice.html

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I don't know about you, but I have never been somewhere where the very center of the hurricane passed over, as it is predicted to do here. Usually, we just get the tail end of hurricanes that stay along the coast, but I think this will be different - with the center passing right over Guadalajara! Isn't the center of the hurricane where all the action is??

Even a "dissipated" hurricane is still quite a storm! Cuidado!!!

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The mountains will tear up the storm but it probably will bring a lot of rain. Here in Chiapas we had 2 ,one from the Pacific and one from the gulf and we got a lot of rains with a lot of landslides. and toned up roads. We had nice weather this morning but it is pouring again..

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