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Mainecoons

For Those Who Think A Flood Of Affluent American Retirees Is Coming

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Not my figures, they're from the BLS as stated age 16-75, yours don't qualify yet. You're looking at this through a political lens and that's not what the stats are saying at all. If a guy is a stay-at-home dad with a working wife, he's counted as "unemployed" and happily although he's working hard. He's not bringing in a paycheck, but living just fine - why would he want to move to MX which is, or was, the point of this thread.

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Here is what I said: Ask yourself this simple question: "how are 93,000,000 unemployed workers in the US continuing to eat, have their iPhones, TV's etc with no income"? Now, if they can live like that here what does MX offer by contrast? - other than fabulous weather. The BLS states that number, it has no opinion on why they are or aren't working,

Okay, I'm referencing the same website for my numbers. When I calculate the data on the form on the link you use, the figure is under 9 million, adjusted or not.

So if your point is "how are (stick any number here) unemployed workers in the US continuing to eat, have their iPhones, TV's etc with no income"? then yes, I am still in agreement with the concept. But if the statistics are wrong in any statement, then that statement is automatically suspect.

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When I came in 2007, there were no tables at Salvadors at 8:30am any day of the week and a line on Sunday. On Tuesday of last week at 9am, there was one outside table full and the waiters had a table inside and that was it.

Oh, man, so true. And Wednesday's tianguis day back then? Forget it.

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Well, as the old saw goes "you can lead a horse to water - but"
http://washington.cbslocal.com/2014/05/02/report-more-than-92-million-americans-remain-out-of-labor-force/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/01/30/are-there-91-million-americans-on-the-sidelines-looking-for-work/
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/feb/10/ted-cruz/ted-cruz-says-92-million-americans-arent-working/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2537585/More-Americans-not-working-92-million-people-workforce.html

I'm amazed at how simple this is and yet some folks are determined to not see or accept the facts. Now, some, or all, of the above links are political in some nature, fine who cares, that's not what our discussion is - but they're all based off the BLS numbers. With that I retire.

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Guest bennie2

cbviajero, delete &update the qoute. added the word "almost". fun to see what how the mainstream thinks. (or actually frightening). whatever. the magic of mex has weared off for those who live on little. its not the same as many years ago. there has been an employment crisis in the US since "08. the govt does help.

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Study after study shows that Americans are not saving for retirement like they should, and a new survey finds that nearly one third of people who have some sort of savings plan have amassed less than $1,000 for retirement.

The survey titled “Preparing for Retirement in America,” by Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) and Greenwald and Associates, finds that only 65 percent of workers have any savings for retirement, a number that fell below the 75 percent figure from 2009.

But 28 percent of workers report that they have saved less than $1,000 for retirement, and almost 6 in 10 Americans say that their financial planning needs improvement.

Additionally, 34 percent say they have made no effort at all to saving anything or make a retirement plan. Still, most say that they intend to start saving at some point.

When we think about the future of retired Americans in Mexico, does it make sense to focus on the 40% who definitely won't have the ability to visit here? or to focus on the 40% who have enough $$ now to come to Mexico.

If our interest is in how retirees will affect our communities in Mexico, it makes sense to look at Boomers s with $$ assetwho will be retiring in the next years, and not focus on 16 - 40 year olds with no savings, nor the 40 - 64 year olds who have no savings.

Mainecoons numbers describe only the bottom parts of a 3 part picture of American baby boomers, who start meeting full SS retirement qualifications this year.

There are roughly 100 million total baby boomers who qualify for retirement between now and 2030.

795px-US_Birth_Rates.svg.png

US Census Bureau reports for the top 2 ventiles (40%) of Americans between the ages of 55-64 who are retiring in 2014 - 2024 that:

40% of the US retirement population had really good earning years in the 1960's, 1970's, 1980's, 1990's - 2008.

As Mainecoons points out, the Census data show that 60% did not do a good of saving, but 40% did.

40% of 100 million upcoming retirees is still 40 million Americans with substantial household assets, home equity, and serious savings.

Back in 2009, during the depths of the Fiscal Crisis and the lowest home valuations in 20 years: The top 40% of 2014 - 2025 eligible US retirees averaged roughly $410,000 in assets & savings per household in 2009 - not counting pensions or SSI.

Their retirement accounts have recovered from those 2009 levels, and their home values have recovered, raising the top 40% of retiring American's average household wealth to $890,000. http://www.census.gov/.../pre-1980/PE-11.html

If the current statistics hold up for Boomers there will be 30% with average assets of over $1 million per household.

1.2 million to 1.6 million new affluent US Boomer retirees every year from now to just 2024 adds to a big coming wave of 14 million really affluent folks retiring with a lot of money by 2025.

So, we can look at it like a ½-full or ½ empty glass. Mainecoon's data look at the empty half of the glass.

About 40 million Americans eligible to retire by 2030 have no savings, and 25 million of those 40 million have net debt.

At the same time: About 40 million retiring Americans by 2030 will have comfortable retirements, and 14 million of them are already wealthy.

When we think about the future of Americans in Mexico, does it make sense to focus on the 40% who definitely won't have the ability to visit here, or should we focus on the 40% who already have enough now to come to Mexico?

That leaves us with the question: How many of those 40 million conservative we-saved-for-retirement Boomers will come to Mexico?

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"That leaves us with the question: How many of those 40 million conservative "we-saved-for-retirement Boomers" will come to Mexico?"

Well, since none of know the answer to that question, I'll wade in with my guess.......

NOT MANY (relative to the number). Why? They have enough $'s to stay put, move within the US to a better climate(but none will match Lakeside) or more favorable tax situation, visit the grandkids, or travel in the US and/or abroad. And even "if I have money I'm not going to give up Medicare!" as I would have to do living in Mexico.

It is RARE for me these days in the US, even when I travel, to mention "I'm going to MEXICO" and not have everyone look at me like I'm crazy! There has been so much negative publicity over the last "8" years about the lawlessness in Mexico that people can't fathom LIVING there. Maybe visit Cancun or PV or ?, but LIVE??? No thank you. And remember, a ton of people were ignorant about Mexico to begin with... asking me if 'they have roads there', and 'don't you have to pay mordida to everyone', and 'don't you get sick eating the food', and.... and.... and.

But... it's just a guess.

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Snowyco:

"Their retirement accounts have recovered from those 2009 levels, and their home values have recovered, raising the top 40% of retiring American's average household wealth to $890,000. http://www.census.go...1980/PE-11.html

If the current statistics hold up for Boomers there will be 30% with average assets of over $1 million per household.

1.2 million to 1.6 million new affluent US Boomer retirees every year from now to just 2024 adds to a big coming wave of 14 million really affluent folks retiring with a lot of money by 2025."

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

WOW ! That's a lot of people with some serious bucks. I used to know a few of them. Not a single one I knew who were in that category thought about moving to Mexico, or for that matter, moving anywhere at all. The ones who lived in California (my home state) didn't need to move to a great climate. They had one.

The ones who lived in the freeze-your-tushie area (my back East relatives) were thinking about moving to warmer climes in the U.S.A. Plenty of choices there.

WHY would they want to move to Mexico nowadays?

There was a time, years ago, when people could buy a fancier house in Mexico than they could afford where they were, afford things like maids and gardeners and live at a much higher level in general than they could on their pensions in the U.S. You all remember "pensions", si? Things you got along with the gold watch from the company after many years. Anyone hear of one lately?

Let's get real about this: Life has changed, radically. The U.S. folks who moved here when you didn't need much more than diddly squat of a pension or SS could survive much better in Mexico than NOB on what they had. Now, the retiring age generation either doesn't have diddly or squat since the cost of living has made saving really difficult, and Mexico's new regulations have made it clear that they don't want those folks anyway..............or they don't want to retire at all, as stated in other posts.............or if they're really well fixed, they don't have any reason to retire HERE.

Maybe a few Mexicans who went to el Norte long ago and did well for themselves might want to come "home". Maybe some other folks who want a change of scene will trickle in. Maybe a few marginally solvent think they can have a better life here. But a "wave"? Think about it.

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There was a time, years ago, when people could buy a fancier house in Mexico than they could afford where they were, afford things like maids and gardeners and live at a much higher level in general than they could on their pensions in the U.S. You all remember "pensions", si? Things you got along with the gold watch from the company after many years. Anyone hear of one lately?

I disagree! You might be talking about where you live only. Where we live this does not apply, yet. It does not even come close if you buy a lot and build a nice house for yourself. I came from San Diego. I am not interested in building/buying a nice house in Texas/Florida/Oklahoma/Detroit etc.

Example of costs: My mother in law had minor surgery at Hospital Angeles here yesterday. Ambulance, new square back state of the art, $700 pesos round trip from one end of the city to the other.

Surgery: 2 excellent gastrologists, anaesthesiologist, total cost $22,000 pesos. In San Diego it would cost about $700 US for the ambulance and about $5000+ US for the surgery. $22,700 pesos compared to about $85,500 pesos.

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Guest bennie2

everyone is forgetting snowbirds. they dont need to qualify for a visa. they come as tourists for 6 months. the only people in my family who moved here (years ago) were the ones w/lower incomes. the others are in boca, beverly hills, carmel, santa monica. (the california people have significtly more income than the fla). mexico is a spa vacation in their minds. there would be no reason to fly into guad.

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I disagree! You might be talking about where you live only. Where we live this does not apply, yet. It does not even come close if you buy a lot and build a nice house for yourself. I came from San Diego. I am not interested in building/buying a nice house in Texas/Florida/Oklahoma/Detroit etc.

Example of costs: My mother in law had minor surgery at Hospital Angeles here yesterday. Ambulance, new square back state of the art, $700 pesos round trip from Tone end of the city to the other.

Surgery: 2 excellent gastrologists, anaesthesiologist, total cost $22,000 pesos. In San Diego it would cost about $700 US for the ambulance and about $5000+ US for the surgery. $22,700 pesos compared to about $85,500 pesos.

You and I are talking about two entirely different groups of people. The kind I referred to don't have to worry about medical expenses. They can afford excellent, all inclusive health insurance in Mexico or anywhere else.

When you mentioned moving to Texas, DETROIT or Oklahoma, I had a good chuckle. People with substantial assets wouldn't dream of moving there. Now, they might very well consider moving to the San Diego area. That's lovely.

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Guest bennie2

gringal is correct. okla is the least educated lowest income least cultured place in the US. detroit is fallen city. but what do i know? it never occured to me to visit.

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People with substantial assets wouldn't consider moving to Texas?

Better do some fact checking on that one. :D

I have relatives in Arlington, TX, DFW area, in fact I'm there right now. A very nice 3000 square foot house in an equally nice neighborhood can be bought for under $200K. Old folks get a big discount on property taxes. Everything is within a few miles including superb medical care. We did a little comparison and concluded the cost of living is pretty similar. The area where the relatives live is loaded with retirees.

We love our Mexico lifestyle and climate but for those who are happy with the U.S. lifestyle and less concerned with climate, this area would be hard to beat.

Interesting read here:

http://www.cheatsheet.com/personal-finance/8-u-s-cities-with-the-most-retirees.html/?a=viewall

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/retire-here-not-there-texas-2013-03-18

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Yes. Except for those people who really are living a very minimalist lifestyle due to very small income, the problem is they have been taught about instant gratification and are influenced by what they think they must have through all the advertisements.

I don't think they teach how to manage money in schools. Of course, that would make sense, as the teachers themselves don't know about money management. The whole world needs the Dave Ramsey method of handling money.

As a retired teacher, I take exception. We do know how to manage money and live on a limited retirement package. Teaching money management may not be part of a particular state's curricula, but it was part of my past school's senior seminar topics. It is hard to find time to fit in everything that has been given over to the schools by society ... Healthy eating habits, anti-bullying, pitfalls of social networks, etc. Plus with the change in parenting, schools now spend a lot of time ensuring that children know their math facts, can tell time, know how to measure things, etc. It is society, not the school systems, that push instant gratification.

One will not have to worry about teachers being a part of the rich retirees, though. You'll find us in the much more reasonable housing areas and volunteering in our communities.

Carol

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Also interesting and a little surprising to me:

According to a recent study conducted by the North Carolina Center for Creative Retirement (NCCCR), Texas has leapt over California and Arizona to claim the number two retirement destination state in the country. Florida retains the number one position, attracting over 16 percent of all retirees who move across state lines. At 6.77 percent, Texas still has a long way to go before capturing the number one position. However, recent trends suggest that Florida’s dominance as the number one retirement destination is slowly slipping. From attracting a high of 26.3 percent of retirees who move across state lines in 1980, Florida slipped to 19.1 percent in the 2000 census. The current downturn of the Florida real estate market combined with the rising popularity of other retirement states will likely cause the declining Florida retirement trend to continue. As 55places.com recently reported, some estimates suggest more people are leaving Florida than moving to it.

What is most surprising about the NCCCR’s study is that Texas was able to leap over both California and Arizona to claim the number two position. After all, these two states have long been retirement Meccas and are home to far more active retirement communities than Texas. There are currently over three-dozen active retirement communities in Arizona. Plus, there are over 50 active retirement communities in California.

http://www.55places.com/blog/texas_the_number_two_retirement_destination

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Mainecoons, Texas offers a lot of "bang for your buck", and a lot more than an "oasis" in the middle of the desert. In many places the weather is actually manageable, and we come to Mexico when it is hot/cold in Texas. Win-win. Best of both worlds.

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Mainecoons, Texas offers a lot of "bang for your buck", and a lot more than an "oasis" in the middle of the desert. In many places the weather is actually manageable, and we come to Mexico when it is hot/cold in Texas. Win-win. Best of both worlds.

Far be it from me to diss the great state of Texas, and it shouldn't be lumped in with Detroit or Oklahoma on anybody's scales. When my spouse was a "road warrior", I had occasion to go along and visit some of the large Texas cities. I was duly impressed with them.

Now, the one negative experience (which even Texans can appreciate) is that we moved to Mexico from California in August. OMG it was hot ! We did the Laredo crossing after miles and miles and MILES of Texas. Gasp. Those "summer birds" who come here know what's good.

There are many nice places to retire, and if you're financially well set for it, you have a world of choices, quite literally. The question will be, how many would choose Mexico? If the government problems, the crime issues and a few other things were cleaned up, I think more of the affluent people would choose Mexico. It's a beautiful country with lots of climate zones from the deserts to the high mountains. The population tends to be welcoming.

However, it must be considered that it's changed dramatically since poor retirees could make ends meet more easily here. But then, the whole world has changed.

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Not so surprising to see a mass exodus from Florida. The southern half of the state may well be literally underwater within a decade or two.

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Most of the people who will retire to south Florida today will be dead in a decade or two. So it really dosen't matter if south

florida is under water.

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The average high in Dallas in July and August is about 99 degrees meaning 103 is pretty close to normal. We visited in early March and experienced almost 2 weeks of freezing rain, sleet and snow. Just lovely. It's not unusual for the temperature to be 40 degrees different between Dallas and Ft Worth when a cold front comes through nor is a daytime high in the 80's and an overnight low below freezing uncommon.

The hill country in Texas is a little more temperate but still hot in the summer and cold in the winter. Not a problem if you're working and move from one air conditioned space to another but unless you're a masochist, outdoor activities can be somewhat limited.

Personally I don't think there will be a flood of people moving to Mexico but perhaps a steady stream. In the near term there's plenty of wealthy people as well as those adventurous who would entertain living in Mexico, especially if the place offered a climate that posed no restrictions to outdoor activity. Twenty years from now who knows.

I often play tennis with people in their mid 70's to over 90. They may not move as fast as someone younger but they're out there every day enjoying life at the same time extending it. I'd rather do that than be cooped up in a house during a dismal Detroit winter hoping that spring arrives by June.

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Very well put Gringal. Texas climate sucks, basically. However, Mexico with its new income requirements and the rapid increase in costs in places like this is no bargain now, and people retiring on less money will be looking for bargains.

Take away the climate factor, and Texas stacks up very well for retirement.

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Hey MC, don't be spreading rumors, you're right, TX weather sucks, hot in the summer cold in the winter and hail the size of your fist plus tornados, and high taxes, long distances between points of civiliztion and most of all it's full of Texans - who needs that? Nope, can't recommend it to anyone, my advice, stay away, just drive on through.

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Snowyco:

"Their retirement accounts have recovered from those 2009 levels, and their home values have recovered, raising the top 40% of retiring American's average household wealth to $890,000. http://www.census.go...1980/PE-11.html

If the current statistics hold up for Boomers there will be 30% with average assets of over $1 million per household.

1.2 million to 1.6 million new affluent US Boomer retirees every year from now to just 2024 adds to a big coming wave of 14 million really affluent folks retiring with a lot of money by 2025."

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

WOW ! That's a lot of people with some serious bucks. I used to know a few of them. Not a single one I knew who were in that category thought about moving to Mexico, or for that matter, moving anywhere at all. The ones who lived in California (my home state) didn't need to move to a great climate. They had one.

The ones who lived in the freeze-your-tushie area (my back East relatives) were thinking about moving to warmer climes in the U.S.A. Plenty of choices there.

WHY would they want to move to Mexico nowadays?

There was a time, years ago, when people could buy a fancier house in Mexico than they could afford where they were, afford things like maids and gardeners and live at a much higher level in general than they could on their pensions in the U.S. You all remember "pensions", si? Things you got along with the gold watch from the company after many years. Anyone hear of one lately?

Let's get real about this: Life has changed, radically. The U.S. folks who moved here when you didn't need much more than diddly squat of a pension or SS could survive much better in Mexico than NOB on what they had. Now, the retiring age generation either doesn't have diddly or squat since the cost of living has made saving really difficult, and Mexico's new regulations have made it clear that they don't want those folks anyway..............or they don't want to retire at all, as stated in other posts.............or if they're really well fixed, they don't have any reason to retire HERE.

Maybe a few Mexicans who went to el Norte long ago and did well for themselves might want to come "home". Maybe some other folks who want a change of scene will trickle in. Maybe a few marginally solvent think they can have a better life here. But a "wave"? Think about it.

"The ones who lived in the freeze-your-tushie area (my back East relatives) were thinking about moving to warmer climes in the U.S.A. Plenty of choices there. WHY would they want to move to Mexico nowadays? "

I basically agree with both your point and RickS's views.

That's why I walked the semantic line of visiting Mexico vs. moving to Mexico.

I think most of the conservative I-saved-more-than-enough-for-reirement Boomers will not even travel to Mexico, except for PV, Cancun, PDC etc. As conservatives, they are quietly afraid of the perceived risks of traveling to Mexico, let alone moving here. The same conservative reasons that they have substantial assets also drive them to stay away from the perceived risks, due to US and Canadian media been harping-on negatives for the past 7 years.

My own brothers and sisters and their spouses used to quietly believe all of Mexico was basically unsafe - and planned their vacations for other destinations. We've gotten family members to visit since then, but it took persistent efforts to convince them to come.

Still, 14 million with serious assets, and another 26 million with substantial assets and lots of time on their hands (as retirees), - and millions of them living in cold cold Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc wanting to escape the cold winters - cold which old-people come to hate - means that if only 1% visited Mexico, we'd see an additional 4 million new American visitors (with $$) visiting Mexico over the next 15 years - with some of them returning after good experiences here.

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For perspective on the big numbers of coming retirees, the Census numbers shows that there will be roughly 25 million new American retirees a year during the peak Boomer years - which represents 7 million more retirees than before and after the Boomer years.

7 million extra retirees per year - every year - starting in 2015 - on top of the 17 million previously retiring every year - with 40% of them with healthy savings and lots of home equity - points to some changes in Americans visiting Mexico, si ? o no ?

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