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What factors will most affect future real estate prices here?

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What will house prices be like here in 5 years? in 10 years? What factors will most affect prices here?

There will be a huge retirement cohort [Americans and Canadians]. What are the inducements and deterrants to more American retirees moving here?

Similarily what are the factors that will encourage and inhibit more Canadians from moving here?

Will Mexico encourage more retirees? Will criminal activities be better controlled in the future? Columbia has come a long way in this regard.

All of the previous comments and questions relate to housing demand. But what about supply? If new supply could be curtailed prices would increase with even a small increase in demand. Will local supply of homes and lots be reduced in the future. Will buying a house here ever be a good investment?

What are your thoughts on these questions?

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I think if the municipality gets their act together prices will rise more due to demand from Mexicans as Americans and Canadians can live cheaply in their own countries and have no language barrier. Guadalajara is getting crowded and will only get worse and Chapala is a short drive with a better quality of life and people in the city have money to spend and many foreigners want to live cheap, and as prices rise they wont come or will move to outlying areas.

When people in the city see what $4,000,000 pesos can buy lakeside with a better quality of life they will drive prices up. Maybe Im wrong but that is what happened when I lived in Santa Barbara with all the wealthy people coming from LA.

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Corruption and security have always been the answer and probably will continue to be.

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I personally expect that Canadians and Americans will be less important to the real estate market here over time. The north lakeside area is now a de facto suburb of GDL. After languishing on the market for 7 years, one of the most expensive homes in my area sold to a couple from there. My RE friends tell me that more and more home sales are going to Mexicans. There has been some recovery in the U.S. housing market in some areas and that has enabled more people there to sell and move to retirement areas. Although the Canadian market bubble has not yet popped, Canadians are really getting burned by the low exchange rate.

When distinctly non-tourist businesses like Autozone start locating here it is a sign that there is a shift underway.

I doubt that this RE market will return to the go-go days of 10 years ago but it has already firmed up. Brokers tell me they are selling many more homes in this season than they have sold at any time after the crash. However, there's a big backlog of unsold property that should keep prices stable for a while.

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I would not count on American retirees buying houses. Believe it or not most of them will not have that kind of money. Most Americans are afraid of Mexico and Mexican Americans are even more terrified of their homeland. I also think the U.S, Government is not encouraging people to retire in Mexico.

Panama has interesting incentives for expats.

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I agree. The Mexican government also seems more oriented to having Americans come down to overpriced resort towns, spend a week or so and pay a lot of gringo prices, and then go home. The chaos around visas and cars that expats have experienced hardly could be called welcoming. The recovery in the U.S. RE market is pretty anemic and already appears to be running out of steam.

Nevertheless, this is still one of the best places in the world to be retired, when one takes into account ambiance, climate and convenient access to both seashore and other places around the world. It will continue to do well IMO.

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Prices of real estate go up and down with level of the lake. When the lake threatened to disappear people were leaving when it was raised so were the prices.

Lakeside is a vacation place for Mexican tourists not only from Guadalajara but another near by communities who come on weekends in droves. Large families bring their ATVs and toys and have good time. During the week the villages are very quiet. It does not feel as a part of Guadalajara. Yes the houses are more reasonable here than in the big city but you have to live here and not everybody wants to commute. I believe this will be always just a vacation spot as long as we have the "clean" lake.

There are not as huge financial incentives which could be good enough reason for some but not most. I also think when Cuba opens its doors to Americans many will go there. JMHO.

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Purchasing a home does not make financial sense for the foreseeable future. Too many unknowns in so many different aspects of how life will be here in the next several years or more.

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And they will work where??? Doing what??

The short commute from here to Guadalajara is probably less of a hassle than driving to their place of work from some residential enclave in the city. Where were you when this sort of thing occured NOB and quite frankly continues today? The upper middle class from the city has been buying here for a number of years. Does it surprise you that some have enough money for 2 or 3 homes? I was told over 10 years ago by a re agent that my main competition for purchase would be Mexican here.

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Prices of real estate go up and down with level of the lake. When the lake threatened to disappear people were leaving when it was raised so were the prices.

Lakeside is a vacation place for Mexican tourists not only from Guadalajara but another near by communities who come on weekends in droves. Large families bring their ATVs and toys and have good time. During the week the villages are very quiet. It does not feel as a part of Guadalajara. Yes the houses are more reasonable here than in the big city but you have to live here and not everybody wants to commute. I believe this will be always just a vacation spot as long as we have the "clean" lake.

There are not as huge financial incentives which could be good enough reason for some but not most. I also think when Cuba opens its doors to Americans many will go there. JMHO.

Frankly I do not think the majority of buyers worry too much about the lake level...if you live in many of the upper fraccs you can see the lake when it is "miles out"..the others live where there is no lake view and love looking at the mountains

Many more people enjoy being able to walk or ride their horse all along the lake shore

Maybe where the level is now will be the new normal

Regardless I would not like to see the water a bus ride away

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The level of the Lake is more of a concern as to the water supply.

Corruption (security) is the big issue , and will continue to be the major issue.

Also a factor causing concern is the recent monitoring by our Mother countries

of our financial affairs here.

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And just what are the "too many variables in so many aspects of how life will be here in the future" as mentioned above?? Thanks.

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Lakeside isnt that far to commute. For example, one popular area in the Guadalajara area is Valle Real but with all the traffic if you work around Providencia, Americana or Centro it will take you 1.5 hours to get home, Chapala will be the same or less.

The people who will drive are professionals who already have jobs, not the poor / middle class that buy the crackerbox homes or ones under $2,000,000 pesos.

I have 2 homes and commute to Chapala anywhere from 2 to 3 days a week when I dont stay there and many, many times my commute from Guadalajara to Chapala is LESS than crossing the city. I just changed my office to a spot by the Riu hotel and will probably be able to make it from Chapala in 45 minutes, heck people spend more time going from Chapala to Jocotepec.

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And then there's all those big industrial facilities around and south of the airport. For their executives, Lakeside is far more convenient and accessible than the NW side of GDL.

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I know an engineer that runs one of those factories in El Salto and lives in Vista del Lago. I have several friends that live there in El Salto too and it only takes them about 15-20 minutes to get here.

Then there's all those boxes in el Chante bought by "ordinary' people who would rather live on a lake than in a polluted city where they have to work but now not live. Oh and the not so ordinary people who bought there for investment and or weekend get aways. Golly, we're surrounded by Mexicans with "money". How shocking!

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I remember when Mississauga was a sleepy little bedroom community that was considered too far from Toronto to ever be anything else. For those who don't know the area, the towns have grown together and Mississauga is now a city in its own right. Population 713,443 and increasing by about 50,000 annually. Its about a one hour commute, depending where you start and end.

Anything can happen with the right ingredients, and this town, these people and the current climate of reform, all have the right stuff. In 20 years few of us will recognize Mexico, just as I can barely recognize the Mexico of today with what I first met 20 years ago surfing in on the Nafta wave. Mexico, as predicted by Business Insider, will be one of the worlds largest economies in 50 years. Specifically, they estimate Mexico will rank number 8 to Canada's number 10 where China is 1st with USA 2nd). I'll buy into that boom.

.http://www.businessinsider.com/these-economies-will-dominate-the-world-in-2050-2012-1?op=1

and

http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/lookingto2060.htm

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All we need is to get Hazel_McCallion now that she is no longer mayor, to retire in Ajijic. Do that and the real-estate prices will double or triple here lakeside. Ask anyone from GTA oh, I for got that is going to be changed to GMA, where M does not stand for the city but for Hazel's last name.

Really, get Hazel to move here and prices will double or triple, really.

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All we need is to get Hazel_McCallion now that she is no longer mayor, to retire in Ajijic. Do that and the real-estate prices will double or triple here lakeside. Ask anyone from GTA oh, I for got that is going to be changed to GMA, where M does not stand for the city but for Hazel's last name.Really, get Hazel to move here and prices will double or triple, really.

I have no idea what you are talking about. Please explain.

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Sorry, El Menudo, I was answering the post made by Semalu who was talking about a city that went from nothing in the early 70s to a fast growing City, bigger than Seattle, WA or Vancouver BC, with a balanced budget today mostly because of a mayor by the name of Hazel McCallion in just 40 years who just retired and took a job at a local university.

I was just suggesting with someone like her as mayor down here, things would change. Oh and she likes her scotch as well.

In several surveys Hazel was voted as the most efficient and successful mayor in all of North America. And we, here in Mexico are also in North America.

Oh, the name of this very new and large city is Mississauga

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In several surveys Hazel was voted as the most efficient and successful mayor in all of North America. And we, here in Mexico are also in North America

And Marcelo Ebrard former mayor of Mexico City was voted best mayor in the World..

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And Marcelo Ebrard former mayor of Mexico City was voted best mayor in the World..

Yes, well. Mexico City is no Mississauga, is it?

Back to local real estate prices. I'll venture a guess that the overall health of the Mexican economy may have some influence on housing prices locally.

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I am wondering if future retirees from the US will be able to afford homes in Mexico? There seems to be a move afoot to transfer retirement savings into government bonds.

http://www.wnd.com/2014/01/obama-step-closer-to-seizing-retirement-accounts/

The US government wants to know where your money is banked. I am beginning to think the mattress is the best bank.

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The huge success of San Miguel del Allende shows that a city based on the arts, historic preservation and international relations will not only prosper but become a magnet for nationals and foriegners, for business and pleasure. Certainly we can see the rise of Guanajuato to the status #1 in Conde Naste Traveller magazine as the direct result of the San Miguel effect.

I think a visually attractive location is a real estate and life style magnet.

For one I would like to see the boats on the lake go back to their very photogenic multi-color scheme. I would encourage the government to subsidize house paint so that all the buildings can look fresh and uplifting. Continue wjtn an anti-graffiti campaign. Expand bus service to the airport and the new bus station and around the lake. Focus on health care and assisted living. Free wifi Lakeside.

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