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Time for the annual "guess the start of the rains" contest

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I think we are looking at an El Nino. Last one was 10 years ago. Simply put warmer water in the Pacific screws up normal weather patterns such as the typical deliverance of rain from the east indicating the start of our rainy season. We could be in for a dry summer. If you really want to know ask the farmers.

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All I can vouch for is the nice rain we got last evening on our 1/3 acre in Chapala. It remains cloudy this morning, so to day might be a repeat of yesterday. I hope so.

Oops, I was ready to post and the sun came out!

Oh well.......que sera, sera.

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Am I the only one who misses the sunshine? This is feeling an awful lot like the PNW weather I just escaped from (albeit blessedly less cold).

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I've been here 7 years and am not used to "cooler" weather starting this time of year, I'm used to 100+ in August, not 75 - but I've grown to accept it. When I lived in Ohio, I truly did miss the sunshine, for months on end the sky was gray, not cloudy - just gray and you started to walk bent over like a low ceiling was over you. But, here I like the milder temps, it's ok.

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Now those are more interesting points to me. I'm from Ottawa, where the sun bursts out regularly just before sundown on Sunday nights, and planning a BBQ for a sunny weekend is like winning the big lottery... it rarely happens. So when I first moved here, I couldn't understand the fixation on the rainy season.

But over a very few years I learned to appreciate it, in more ways than one. In the end what really won me over, apart from the fabulous greens of the mountains, was the freshness in the air during the day, the general lack of dust, the raining mostly at night... and the fact that the rain is rarely cold like home, but much warmer and more relaxing.

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Guest bennie2

i dont mind cooler temps, shade is nice rather than scorcing sun. a dry summer would be ok. would be perfect if it rained only @ night late.

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rain is not over bennie is a weatherman. expect this all wkend. accuweather knows.

Hey bennie - where's all the rain? - not any measurable since Friday, sure doesn't look like it out there today? - maybe accuguess doesn't know after all. If you look at the water vapor satellite there is nada even near us. Wunderground is the closest.

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Yep, dryer air has pushed in from the north. The pattern certainly doesn't support the idea that the real rainy season has started.

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Guest bennie2

good. that was some teeming rain friday PM. that was not expected untill next week. some dry air, & low sun is perfect keep it up.

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In my opinion, the real rainy season started last night. The storm clearly came from the east, the circulation from the east is becoming established and stronger.

So I would suggest that the season started today, just after midnight, June 7.

Comments?

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Guest bennie2

i stand by last fridays rain, heavy is heavy, rain is rain. no? i dont need a weather man to know which way the wind blows.

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Last Friday there was no rain here in San Juan Cosala. Early this morning we got 4/10 of an inch. By the definitions set out in the first message in the topic the rainy season still hasn't started here.

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Guest bennie2

it was heavy in ajijic, go figure. i had some flooding from an open window.

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They measured 0.61" at the Riberas station which is the measuring point specified.

It will be interesting to see if there is a follow on. There is drier air not that far north of us where the westerlies are still blowing.

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Does not the winner of the rainy season topic have to have chosen a 24 hour period when an inch or more falls ? Or are the rules being changed or did I not understand :)

The total amount of rain this month hasn't even reached one inch.

I sure hope that you are right and that the season is beginning, even if only slowly.

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Guest bennie2

looks like short rains, but heavy. all i know is that it will reach 90 degrees today. websight says partly cloudy but the sun is blazing hot.

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Don't get the fixation with "from the east". A couple good rains and a storm on either coast should do it

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The rain last night started the clock running. Now we'll see if the follow on rains come.

There was no follow on from that rain at the end of May.

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Guest bennie2

its "following" as we speak. the sun went down & now its drizzling. no one outside, supermarket empty hope this happens every weekend.

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Darn,I only missed it by a little over an hour.Why does Riberas show the .61 from june 6?if you look at the rainy day calendar 2014.If the weather station was in Joco I would have been right,watched it rain all evening there from my casa.I can see the easterly flow on the north side of the lake but where I`m at on the south side a little east of Tuxcueca our weather comes from the south from hills over Mazamitla

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They've always reported significantly more than it seems we actually get. A year ago I contacted a reporter at the Reporter and asked where they were getting those numbers - never got a clear answer. Seems like he gave the name of some agency I've never heard of and when I asked where their reporting station was - I never heard back, so your guess is as good as any.

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I was in Guad most of Friday afternoon, and around 4 pm, it started to rain. By about 6pm, I was on my way back to the lake on Lopez Mateo, and it was raining so hard that near the new underpass they are building, the road was really flooded. When I reached El Molino, the ground was completely dry. I don't know why, but Guad seems to get heavier downpours that we do. It is after all, called "The Guad Reporter" so they may be reporting what they got, not what we got. By the way, there is a new low off Acapulco, and it's coming up the coast at 5-10 mph. NHC expects it to get stronger, so the unusual May might turn into an unusual June. Who cares where it comes from if it will just arrive.

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Well, I'd say the rainy season arrived today, at least in Riberas, that's the most rain in one day since last Dec 27th and that was an aberration due to the late season hurricane off shore, before that it was Sept 16th, so this is a good start on the year hopefully.

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Wow, we didn't get anything on that order over here in SE Ajijic at all. Agree though, the season has started. By the rules I set down, I'd say that June 6 was the official start.

Mountain is starting to turn green, love it!

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