Mad_Max Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 Whenever weatherunderground.com and weather.com call for rain on the same day, chances seem to be good - that something will happen somewhere (meaning here or closeby) and geeze weatherunderground.com says 60% chance of precipitation on Sunday for chapala - http://www.wunderground.com/ and weather.com says 40% chance of precipitation on Sunday and 20% on Monday http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Chapala+MXDO0241:1:MX And of course it doesn't mean it is going to happen - and Sunday is still a long ways a weather way - but - guess we will see............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valbogyo Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 I hope so! It is already getting dusty! A little rain would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Habacht Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 more proof of global warming or change or not warming or not changing or....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giltner68 Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 But now they are predicting El Nino later this year, how can that be? Did we do something to cause that? In fact it may slow the decade long cooling period which we also had nothing to do with.If you'll check the local weather station in Riberas, as I write this, the rooftop sensor is showing 57.1 degrees, the ground level is 54 degrees, yet the two sensors are only 50' apart? Which is correct, are neither correct, or are both wrong, or maybe both are correct? - it's some of each. The point being if only the rooftop sensor was reporting the temp would be "skewed" to be warmer.The station in Rancho Del Oro is showing 61.6 degrees, same equipment, same software yet it's significantly warmer - how can this be? Well, it appears that sensor is on the roof and if you live on the roof, it's correct, if you live down on the ground where most of us dwell, then it's not.The point of all this is that we think we're much smarter than we are, we put far too much confidence in "hearsay" which is what we're being force fed to support political agendas. There has always been climate change, read history, it wasn't caused then by mankind and it's not now, we've been whipped up into a hyper state of supposed awareness by data and people we can neither validate or invalidate. My suggestion is enjoy the weather, it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natbug Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 Or the developing El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad_Max Posted March 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 more proof of global warming or change or not warming or not changing or....? You can't look at one event - I like the baseball analogy mentioned in one of my MOOC classes - trying fo figure out if a home run was caused by steriod use =http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/steroids-baseball-and-climate-change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Habacht Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 Beware of brainwashing or rainwashing or repeating something so often that it must be true...like the stupid statement that the earth is not flat...ofcourse it is flat...it is the people that are round or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad_Max Posted March 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 But now they are predicting El Nino later this year, how can that be? Did we do something to cause that? In fact it may slow the decade long cooling period which we also had nothing to do with. If you'll check the local weather station in Riberas, as I write this, the rooftop sensor is showing 57.1 degrees, the ground level is 54 degrees, yet the two sensors are only 50' apart? Which is correct, are neither correct, or are both wrong, or maybe both are correct? - it's some of each. The point being if only the rooftop sensor was reporting the temp would be "skewed" to be warmer. The station in Rancho Del Oro is showing 61.6 degrees, same equipment, same software yet it's significantly warmer - how can this be? Well, it appears that sensor is on the roof and if you live on the roof, it's correct, if you live down on the ground where most of us dwell, then it's not. The point of all this is that we think we're much smarter than we are, we put far too much confidence in "hearsay" which is what we're being force fed to support political agendas. There has always been climate change, read history, it wasn't caused then by mankind and it's not now, we've been whipped up into a hyper state of supposed awareness by data and people we can neither validate or invalidate. My suggestion is enjoy the weather, it will change. i think all of us - or most of us - believe that you are a non believer - (and a few others) - why not put all this energy trying to convince the world climate scientists. Look at the recommended MOOC course - they even discuss what is wrong with some data and right with some data. But if you feel that the world climate scientists are wasting their time, write to their governments to let them know why - As to history - try the sixth extinction - great book - and absolutely right on - we , as human's did not cause the previous 5. Great read - http://www.amazon.com/The-Sixth-Extinction-Unnatural-History/dp/0805092994 *Starred Review* It didn’t take long for Homo sapiens to begin “reassembling the biosphere,” observes Kolbert, a Heinz Award–winning New Yorker staff writer and author of Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change (2006). By burning fossil fuels, we are rapidly changing the atmosphere, the oceans, and the climate, forcing potentially millions of species into extinction. Five watershed events in the deep past decimated life on earth, hence the designation “Sixth Extinction” for today’s human-propelled crisis. To lay the groundwork for understanding this massive die-off, Kolbert crisply tells the stories of such earlier losses as the American mastodon and the great auk and provides an orienting overview of evolutionary and ecological science. She then chronicles her adventures in the field with biologists, botanists, and geologists investigating the threats against amphibians, bats, coral, and rhinos. Intrepid and astute, Kolbert combines vivid, informed, and awestruck descriptions of natural wonders, from rain forests to the Great Barrier Reef, and wryly amusing tales about such dicey situations as nearly grabbing onto a tree branch harboring a fist-sized tarantula, swimming among poisonous jellyfish, and venturing into a bat cave; each dispatch is laced with running explanations of urgent scientific inquiries and disquieting findings. Rendered with rare, resolute, and resounding clarity, Kolbert’s compelling and enlightening report forthrightly addresses the most significant topic of our lives. --Donna Seaman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joco Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 But now they are predicting El Nino later this year, how can that be? Did we do something to cause that? In fact it may slow the decade long cooling period which we also had nothing to do with. If you'll check the local weather station in Riberas, as I write this, the rooftop sensor is showing 57.1 degrees, the ground level is 54 degrees, yet the two sensors are only 50' apart? Which is correct, are neither correct, or are both wrong, or maybe both are correct? - it's some of each. The point being if only the rooftop sensor was reporting the temp would be "skewed" to be warmer. The station in Rancho Del Oro is showing 61.6 degrees, same equipment, same software yet it's significantly warmer - how can this be? Well, it appears that sensor is on the roof and if you live on the roof, it's correct, if you live down on the ground where most of us dwell, then it's not. The point of all this is that we think we're much smarter than we are, we put far too much confidence in "hearsay" which is what we're being force fed to support political agendas. There has always been climate change, read history, it wasn't caused then by mankind and it's not now, we've been whipped up into a hyper state of supposed awareness by data and people we can neither validate or invalidate. My suggestion is enjoy the weather, it will change. http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities,1and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joco Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 Whenever weatherunderground.com and weather.com call for rain on the same day, chances seem to be good - that something will happen somewhere (meaning here or closeby) and geeze weatherunderground.com says 60% chance of precipitation on Sunday for chapala - http://www.wunderground.com/ and weather.com says 40% chance of precipitation on Sunday and 20% on Monday http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Chapala+MXDO0241:1:MX And of course it doesn't mean it is going to happen - and Sunday is still a long ways a weather way - but - guess we will see............ I got a few drops last night and the clouds looked like rain clouds. The newbies don't know yet how much we will be begging for rain in June, listening for Rain Birds, posting the first time we hear them and counting how many Rain Birds we hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mainecoons Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 Thank you for getting us back on topic, Joco. It's way too early for any rain. What you see is a little cloudiness kicked up by disturbances passing well north of us. Interesting question here, though, how does an El Nino affect our summer rain if it does at all? Last year the easterlies were weak, a mild La Nina year. What we need is another really wet summer to refill this lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giltner68 Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 One final shot and then I head to Guad to pollute the air and expand my carbon footprint. I worked for NASA on Saturn V back in the '60's and they were a great organization with great goals which we achieved, since then they've become totally political (with few goals due to funding cuts) and I - and I may say many many others - today give them zero credibility. When you begin a supposed credible statement with "Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities" you immediately negate any credibility. Folks, haven't we learned anything in the world of information overload and massaging? You have to translate - that simply means they went out and found a group of guys, pre-selected, that are climate (you pick the word, I'll spare you mine) and sure enough, 97% say it's so? The old joke is that when the weather station says 80% chance of rain that announcer stuck his head in the back room and asked how many guys thought it was going to rain - 8 of the 10 said yes? You want credibility? - show me the survey, give me the names and affiliations, give me some fact to back up such a vacuous (and may I say silly) statement. If in fact even 60% agreed you might have a discussion, but attempting to shut down discussion by brow beating everyone up front with a supposed statement of "fact" (unsubstantiated) is bunk. I'd bet that I can conduct a survey and show the vast majority will do most anything you "lead" them to believe. I remember a guy some years ago who was taking up a collection for the "widow of the unknown soldier" - he got a huge response - duh. People, don't bother to write your government, they're the ones driving these "green parasites" with funding and only you can change that. As far as rain Sunday, maybe, there is a plume of moisture streaming off the Pacific that might push down far enough to cover us, but I'd not be betting much money on it. The rainy season will come as usual in June, with, or without our assistance as it always has, sit back and enjoy and let the gardeners take care of things until then. And Max, I'll become a beliber right after I see SuperLake have a 75% off sale on everything in the store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad_Max Posted March 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 One final shot and then I head to Guad to pollute the air and expand my carbon footprint. I worked for NASA on Saturn V back in the '60's and they were a great organization with great goals which we achieved, since then they've become totally political (with few goals due to funding cuts) and I - and I may say many many others - today give them zero credibility. When you begin a supposed credible statement with "Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities" you immediately negate any credibility. Folks, haven't we learned anything in the world of information overload and massaging? You have to translate - that simply means they went out and found a group of guys, pre-selected, that are climate (you pick the word, I'll spare you mine) and sure enough, 97% say it's so? The old joke is that when the weather station says 80% chance of rain that announcer stuck his head in the back room and asked how many guys thought it was going to rain - 8 of the 10 said yes? You want credibility? - show me the survey, give me the names and affiliations, give me some fact to back up such a vacuous (and may I say silly) statement. If in fact even 60% agreed you might have a discussion, but attempting to shut down discussion by brow beating everyone up front with a supposed statement of "fact" (unsubstantiated) is bunk. I'd bet that I can conduct a survey and show the vast majority will do most anything you "lead" them to believe. I remember a guy some years ago who was taking up a collection for the "widow of the unknown soldier" - he got a huge response - duh. People, don't bother to write your government, they're the ones driving these "green parasites" with funding and only you can change that. As far as rain Sunday, maybe, there is a plume of moisture streaming off the Pacific that might push down far enough to cover us, but I'd not be betting much money on it. The rainy season will come as usual in June, with, or without our assistance as it always has, sit back and enjoy and let the gardeners take care of things until then. And Max, I'll become a beliber right after I see SuperLake have a 75% off sale on everything in the store. I amended my 98% to say - 98% of scientists who have submitted climate science peer reviewed papers - and that number can be backed up Superlake seems to have a winning formula for success- so I guess you will just stay a non beliber;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mexbound Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 One thing to note on temperature readings from a roof or ground level is the actual physical thermometer device. If you have a "fan aspirated" thermometer then your temperature readings are more likely to be more accurate no matter if the device is on the ground or on the roof. If the device is on the roof, then it is important that the device is mounted at least 10 feet above the base of the roof. A "fan aspirated" thermometer is enclosed in a casing and then a fan blows the outside air around the thermometer. This feature is more accurate then just a thermometer sitting there reading stagnant air surrounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txroseinajijic Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 I smelled it this morning...and wish we could get a respite from this unseasonably hot weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex45920 Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 Local folklore says that early heat indicates a heavy rain season will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVGRINGO Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 Clouds can form, the wind can shift enough to cause the jets to approach GDL from our area. If you heard a jet, then felt drops on your head, it may not have been nice clean rainwater. Another caution: Never stand under a long railroad trestle when a passenger train is passing overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ichbinsaege Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 Local folklore says that early heat indicates a heavy rain season will follow. I tend to believe local folklore more than weather reports. Last year the locals were telling me that we were not going to have a good rainy season, despite it seeming to start off well. They were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joco Posted March 7, 2014 Report Share Posted March 7, 2014 I tend to believe local folklore more than weather reports. Last year the locals were telling me that we were not going to have a good rainy season, despite it seeming to start off well. They were right. If you add in the December monsoon it was an average rain year. I know we get more rain in Joco that in Riberas. On days that Steve reported 2" we had 5". Maybe someone will install a weather station here to compare rainfall with Riberas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johanson Posted March 8, 2014 Report Share Posted March 8, 2014 I looked into the pool and could see that it was raining today very lightly, sometime around 4:45 PM in upper West Ajijic. The amount was so small that it appeared to be sunny out and the concrete around the pool looked dry. Again, the only evidence was the reaction of the pool after each drop hit the water in the pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeside101 Posted March 8, 2014 Report Share Posted March 8, 2014 had 2 BRIEF moments of rain in west ajijic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giltner68 Posted March 8, 2014 Report Share Posted March 8, 2014 You're blessed, even if slightly? - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/flash-wv.html would indicate we're not in the stream, so keep the gardeners watering a bit longer - like about 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad_Max Posted March 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2014 darn - guess we should have done a proper rain dance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giltner68 Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 Don't give up, I love to be wrong - at least about rain, clouds look promising, but I think they're just "practicing". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granada Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 After watching lightning across the lake for about half an hour I enjoyed a steady ten minute downpour. It tapered to a drizzle but wet the garden enough. Smells fresh now! This was in Riberas. I heard San Antonio had a good drenching also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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