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Perfect illustration of how screwed up this INM thing is


giltner68

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Being curious and bored this morning I went out to our friend Google and found a couple of sites that are interesting:

http://www.statisticbrain.com/american-family-financial-statistics/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/22/americans-savings-500_n_2003285.html

Now, do I believe either? - with a grain of salt, but it's interesting and germane to our discussion.

These references that are claimed to be "germane to our discussion", ironically include the data for all adults, including 18 year olds, and 20 somethings, and 30 somethings - none of whom seem to fit the arguments offered about Canadians and Americans RETIRING to Mexico.

By bundling in all the 18 year olds through 54 year olds, you create a picture that does not fit expert's past evaluations.

One of the studies even restricts its data to only "workers" .

When we pool in the 1.3 million Walmart part-time workers, and the McDonalds, B-King, and other minimum wage workers, and the 50% of working Americans who only work part-time, then of course, you get statistics that report on 100's millions of Americans who are not likely retiring in Mexico any time soon.

Rather than choosing broad statistics that do NOT represent Americans who are planning to retire, instead choose the 55-64 year old group that retirement experts use for their data - people who are the 40% of the population who were between 55-64 years old Census Bureau data from back in the bad fiscal crisis days of 2009.

Reality again says that Mexico is welcoming a very large group of Baby Boomer retirees (40 million Americans) who had good jobs, who saved, and who easily qualify under Mexico's residency policies that are far far more liberal than Canada's, USA's, England's, Germany's, Australia's, Norway's, et al.

Why use skewed data to prove emotional points ?

Is it because that the emotional points simply are not supported by relevant facts?

Mexico really does have very liberal residency requirements.

If you look at all the people in the Baby Boom, who are going to reach retirement age of 67, between 2014 and 2030,

40 percent of them average over $1 million in net household assets.

Yes, when we look around at our neighbors, who likely retired early, the ones already in Mexico are a different group than the 100 million coming US Boomer retirees - of which 40 million easily meet Mexico's residency requirements.

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It's really not a "what I think" issue. I simply quote US official 2010 Census Bureau figures.

Where in the 2010 census does it state that 40% of Americans have $122,000 in savings?
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Sorry snowyco, I'll have to call BS on that. I lived in a pretty upscale world before I moved here and I can tell you those numbers are flat out BS - and more, those people have zero interest in moving here, let me repeat ZERO interest.

Now, is it Mexico's "job" to provide a place for the rest to live? - no, obviously not, but when you open that can of worms we'll have to also discuss what "we" NOB, do for their people gratis and I don't think you want to have that conversation in public. So, ask the same question in reverse "is it the US job to care for (anywhere for 11 to 20 million Mexicans) gratis ? - obviously not, so maybe a bit of reciprocity might be in order here and please explain to me why it take roughly 35 times as much for a gringo to live here as a worker in the DF? - that's one I'd love to hear explained in detail.

Giltner,

Have you studied the US 2010 Census data?

If not, then it may explain why you chose study results that bundle in data for 100's of millions who are not retiring any time soon.

Study the Census data, and you will get a different picture for 40 million Boomers who are due to retire. They are very different than our current expat neighbors and friends.

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Snowyco's posts made some good points. The statistical reference of Giltner's was, indeed, germane to the discussion.

HOWEVER, this statistical reference included all Americans, young, middle ages and retirement age. Snowyco's most recent post was even more to the point

So what's going on here? Bleeding hearts for those in the U.S. who can't make the new financial requirements when they are ready to retire ........somewhere? Or is it something else, completely personal and having nothing to do with NEEDING to be in Mexico for our declining years? Nobody NEEDS to retire in Mexico. There are other places whose entry requirements will do the job. In fact, why does anyone NEED to leave the U.S.?

My anecdotal evidence uncovered the following reasons for long term residents not wanting to go to the old FM2: (1) Travel restrictions on length of time in the U.S., followed by (2)wanting to keep their U.S. plated cars, followed by(3) the fees being higher than the old FM3. When the rules changed, I haven't heard anyone outside of this and other boards complaining about Mexico keeping new immigrants from the USA out because they wouldn't have enough money. Maybe the discussion goes on at the local coffee shops. Heatedly, no doubt. For those who chose (1) (2) or (3) above, there may be problems under the new regs.

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The "saldo promedio mensual equivalente a veinticinco mil días de salario mínimo general" works out to about $98,000 USD or exactly $1,295,200 MXN pesos.

the minimum daily salary is 64.78 pesos . 25000 times is 1,619,0000 pesos.

Thanks for catching my error! I mistakenly copied & mixed the Residente Temporal and Residente Permanente figures.

Here are the corrected figures, as reported on Yucalandia and Rolly Brook:

"Residente Temporal Income or Deposits or Bank Balance Requirements:

(Manual/Lineamientos Article 41)

~ Documentation of Proof of Financial Independence by Average Annual Bank Balance: Provide 12 months of original bank or investment account statements (plus copies) as proof savings/investments, to show minimum Average Monthly Balance amounts equivalent to twenty thousand days of the general minimum wage in the District Federal for the previous twelve months…

Average Monthly Balance of at least : about $100,000 USD (exactly $1,295,200 MXN pesos) at $13:1 MXN:USD for Residente Temporal.

or

Using Method of Monthly Deposits of Income or Pension Receipts: (Resident Temporal)

~ Have minimum pension or salary deposits/income that is the equivalent of four hundred days worth of the current minimum wage in the Federal District, for each of the previous six months – with original and copies of original bank statement for one Residente Temporal.

Current 2013 DF general minimum wages of $64.76 MXN pesos per day, converted at the current exchange rate of 13.00 pesos to US dollars, for 400 days of wages:

~ About $2,000 USD (exactly $25,904 pesos) per month of regular Deposits ~ to qualify for Residente Temporal

Using Method of Owning Real Estate Property in Mexico: (Residente Temporal)

~ Own/have real property trustee rights, with a value equivalent to forty thousand days of general minimum wage in the Federal District, with original and copy of written proof from a Notario. At the current $13:1 MXN:USD exchange rate, this translates to:

About $200,000 USD (exactly $2,590,400 pesos) worth of property for one Residente Temporal.

* * * *

Financial Independence (Savings or Income or Property) Requirements for Permanent Residency / Residente Permanente Applicants

Residente Permanente Income or Deposits or Bank Balance Requirements:

(Manual/Lineamientos Article 44)

~ Documentation of Proof of Financial Independence by Average Bank Balance: Provide the 12 months of original bank statements (plus copies) as proof of income or savings/investments, to show equivalent to twenty five thousand days of the general minimum wage in the District Federal for the previous twelve months…

Average Monthly Balance of about $125,000 USD (exactly $1,619,000 pesos) at $13:1 MXN:USD for Residente Permanente.

or

Using Method of Regular Deposits of Income or Pension Receipts: (Residente Permanente)

~ Have minimum monthly income deposits or pension deposits that are the equivalent of five hundred days worth of the current minimum wage in the Federal District, for each of the previous six months – with original and copies of original bank statement. This translates to:

about $2,500 USD (exactly $32,380 pesos) a month of regular deposits for one Residente Permanente.

* * * *

http://yucalandia.com/answers-to-common-questions/new-rules-and-procedures-for-immigration-visiting-and-staying-in-mexico/#Various%20Types%20of%20Proof%20of%20Financial%20Independence%20for%20Temporary%20Residency

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Like it or not, few, and no one I've ever have known, have worked their lives to have $122K + in the bank and are excited about moving to Mexico. First of all those $M + numbers obviously include hugely inflated housing prices which are largely under water now, so they are meaningless.

Sure it's an emotional issue, but as I said, the current state of MX is not conducive to drawing large numbers of baby boomers down here, it's just not, fair or not.

We all remember the Summer Olympics boondoggle a couple of years ago when supposedly bus loads of people with suitcases of money were going to descend on us and buy everything in sight? - I didn't see any, did you?

I can go to TX right now and with $20K down buy a nice place with an acre of land for a PITI of $500 a month. Now, you tell me where the burning desire is to move here and deal with the junk we do on a daily basis - you gotta really really love this place a whole lot of days not to go postal.

I'm leaving for the border Sunday and I've got locks on the locks to keep everything I'm carrying in my possession. I've crafted devices and hidden money just in case I have an encounter with some guys in black uniforms that want me to buy them pizza for the next month or two. The last time I was in TX I was bone tired and took some stuff out of the SUV up to my room, forgot and left the tailgate window open, crashed on the bed and everything was wide open, nothing touched - ever try that here?

So, we have two factors, the actual money which I don't buy - and the emotional factor which is real - I was a salesman for 30 years, guess how much emotion goes into buying something, especially "the rest of your life"?

PS: as for studying the census report? - right, another boondoggle, sorry, I'd not put much faith in that document when I saw how much of it was conducted.

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It's really not a "what I think" issue. I simply quote US official 2010 Census Bureau figures. This 40% number was based on US citizen's assets from the very low $$ period of the 2009 economic fiscal crisis - when our retirement accounts were roughly 30% lower than now, which means even more people qualify for Mexican residency now.

Sadly, the personal finance picture of US citizens is 2 faced. 40% of Americans who are between age 55-64 have over $1 million in net household assets. The lower 40% have almost no assets and the bottom 25% actually have net debt. This means that a large percentage of Americans experience relative affluence, while an equal number struggle.

Snowyco, can you link the census data where you found the above? Thanks!

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Has INM started accepting money in the bank as financial proof instead of $2000 a month in pension income? A few months ago the consulates needed pension income only and would not accept bank statements. I think Ajijic has written that some consulates are more liberal but I haven't read that INM is accepting anything but pension income.

People who have the income and money INM wants do not need to move to Mexico. They have plenty of choices. Why move to a country that has drug cartel violence, graft every time you turn around, and the rules will be changed every few years making it harder to live here? Who wants to invest in a country if you don't have a clue what will happen to the investment in the future because you can't sell if no one is moving here.

I believe Snowyco completely missed the point of the second paragraph of this post in his long-winded rebuttal. What it is obvious Joco was saying is that foreigners who wish to retire in warmer, less expensive climes have many options available and will not be choosing Mexico if things continue to be made as difficult as they are here. There was no mention of retirees NEEDING to move to Mexico.

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Yes, I know a rather "well healed" dentist and wife who chose Costa Rica and love it.

Just came across this number in the current news 90,473,000 NOT in work force. I'd just bet that a bunch of them are NOT in the $122K savings bucket and a whole bunch of them are NOT kids. And most of us this age remember all too well when you got close to retirement the beads of sweat came out from worrying about a cut and others of us found that as we approached 60, our job opportunities were almost non-existent.

My kids live in CA, one has a modest trilevel house estimated at $750K - can they suddenly sell it for that? - doubt it, but it counts on their net worth and I've tried to get them out of CA without success and I never mentioned MX as an option.

I'd be willing to pony up $100USD to be held for 10 years to see just how many baby boomers suddenly descend on us - any takers?

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Where in the 2010 census does it state that 40% of Americans have $122,000 in savings?

It is not stated. It takes effort to determine it, but the efforts involve only simple additions and multiplication.

Start with the official population numbers to know how many people are in each quintile and each ventile, at http://www.census.gov/popest/data/national/asrh/pre-1980/PE-11.html . I personally like using the excel spreadsheet values, so there are no typing errors. Then research the income and asset data, http://www.census.gov/people/wealth/ .

A quick snapshot of the latest published (2011) official USA typical household asset value say:

55 to 64 years: $239,847 of Net Assets and $108,607 of Liquid Assets

according to US Census values. http://www.census.gov/people/wealth/ and Net Worth and Asset Ownership of Households: 2011

Just like many worthwhile things, it takes a bit of effort to get the real answers that actually fit the question.

This single pair of data points say that the average american does meet the $$ savings requirements for Temporary Residency, and if you do a little more effort, you can determine that 40% of Americans that will be retiring soon meet Mexico's Residente Permanente savings requirements.

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Like it or not, few, and no one I've ever have known, have worked their lives to have $122K + in the bank and are excited about moving to Mexico. First of all those $M + numbers obviously include hugely inflated housing prices which are largely under water now, so they are meaningless.

Giltner,

Did you read either the 2010 Census results or the 2011 Census results?

Both sets of US Census data say that your imagined claims are false.

The 2011 average for typical American households was $240,000 of net assets (including home equity) and $109,000 without home equity - and that was back in 2011 when home values had tanked.

Current American household assets are nominally 25% higher due to the stock markets recovering and home values recovering. The Dow Jones Industrials have moved from 11,000 up to 15,000 since 2011 - meaning that if you did NOT panic sell , then you actually can have a 36% increase in net invested wealth.

That works out to 2013 typical median American household net wealth of $152,000 of savings assets and total net household wealth of $300,000.

Real world data and official facts just do not support the emotional claims being made in this thread by a few vocal individuals.

Average Americans, who are fast approaching retirement, more than qualify for Permanent Residence in Mexico.

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Giltner,

Did you read either the 2010 Census results or the 2011 Census results?

Both sets of US Census data say that your claims are false.

The 2011 average for typical American households was $240,000 of net assets (including home equity) and $109,000 without home equity - and that was back in 2011 when home values had tanked.

Real world data and official facts just do not support the emotional claims being made in this thread.

It doesn't matter what you think the census says, the majority of those people are not leaving the U.S.A. or Canada. Most have no desire to move to Mexico. The majority of people who moved to Mexico did so because it was less expensive. If those people cannot qualify now then they will move to other countries and bypass Mexico. Mexico's loss is Ecuador's, Costa Rica's and Guatemala's gain.

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It doesn't matter what you think the census says, the majority of those people are not leaving the U.S.A. or Canada. Most have no desire to move to Mexico. The majority of people who moved to Mexico did so because it was less expensive. If those people cannot qualify now then they will move to other countries and bypass Mexico. Mexico's loss is Ecuador's, Costa Rica's and Guatemala's gain.

Hey Joco,

Nice try to change the subject.

You insisted that Mexico and INM had made "ridiculous requirements" that Americans somehow could not meet.

Now that you've seen the real data for real Americans who are retiring, seen the facts that prove that Mexico's INM requirements allow the average American to qualify for Permanent Residency, Why change the subject?

Roughly 40 million Americans will be retiring with more than enough assets to qualify for residency in Mexico.

Are INM requirements really "ridiculous" ?

The highly emotional negative claims made in this thread just do not stand up to even simple factual scrutiny.

Reality shows the opposite.

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Here's another little zinger for people age 50+

http://www.statisticbrain.com/retirement-statistics/

Take a look at the 3rd line? - hmm, could that be more realistic?

Yes, Giltner, you have quoted yet more cooked statistics that do not fit the question.

Please, rather than reading other investment company conclusions, read the actual numbers from the links provided above.

If you look at the actual census data, the official Census Bureau data do not have line items for the mythical "50 year old" that your investment company website advertises.

Instead, read the uncooked "55-64 year old" "household asset" Census data for the actual numbers.

Investment company literature is designed to scare people into using their services: "You need us ! "

Advertiser's "logic" does not fit the actual US census reports.

Also consider that your "50 year old" still has 17 years of earning income before reaching retirement,

and as Wikipedia's articles on income point out:

"Twenty years ago, those in their peak earning years took home about twice as much as workers between the ages of 20 and 24. Now they earn more than three times as much."

Why ignore the 17 year of earning power?

Those missing 17 years in your analysis represent at least half of the $$, and most of the savings, out of an average 45 year career.

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Ok, this is enough junk, you wave that census doc number around like it's some sort of God graced, gold plated, written in stone piece of Americana and can't be disputed or wrong - well my friend, fine, you chuck that baby in your shorts and put up or shut up on my $100 bet and we'll see what time and reality bring. It's your call, you can PM or be embarrassed in public, your choice.

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"The majority of people who moved to Mexico did so because it was less expensive."

....and that allegation is based on?????

This entire discussion started on the basis of criticizing the new regulations as being UNFAIR. Nothing wrong with expressing our opinions on that.

However: Now we're lost in statistics with odds are being made and tempers showing. Is there some point in turning this discussion into a bookmaking operation? :huh:

Within the next few years, it will be very evident how many leave and how many emigrate to Mexico for whatever reason. Some people actually do move here on purpose..... to have a change of scene and new adventures, cheaper or not. The "A listers" around here had plenty when they moved here and still have the array of options they started with. (Somebody must be supporting Number Four on a regular basis, and it isn't me.)

The really poor probably couldn't have managed the move in the first place. Some people have been on tourist visas for time immemorial and just "disappeared" from the radar long ago. Some of the poorer residents needed to return to the States for the "safety nets" re health and welfare which are minimal in Mexico. People cope as best they can.

I will repeat what I learned as a child: "Nobody told you that life was going to be FAIR". It isn't. No government, no tax system, no corporation..........nobody. Smart people cope with WHAT IS, "fair" or not.

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Ok, this is enough junk, you wave that census doc number around like it's some sort of God graced, gold plated, written in stone piece of Americana and can't be disputed or wrong - well my friend, fine, you chuck that baby in your shorts and put up or shut up on my $100 bet and we'll see what time and reality bring. It's your call, you can PM or be embarrassed in public, your choice.

What $100 bet are you talking about? What are you wagering on?

First you present asset data for 18 year olds-40 year olds as "germane" to people who will soon be retiring. Then you presented income data that included 100's millions of younger part-time workers, who also will not be retiring. Next, you propose supposedly applicable "retirement savings data" that is for a 50 year old, who still has more than half of his best savings years left to work before retirement. Finally you imply that I am ignoring some mythical $100 wager you offered.

I have read all of your posts, across the whole thread, twice, and I cannot find either a $100 bet nor any offer of a wager?

The strategy of people changing the subject every time they are shown to be incorrect, is confusing.

The data seem simple. 40 million Baby Boomers got degrees, worked hard, saved, bought houses, inherited money from their parents, and now 40 million of the 100 million total Boomers have enough money to qualify to retire in Mexico.

Some posters insisted that the INM standards were supposedly "ridiculously high", yet years of official US government census data say the typical average US future retirees do have the assets to meet Mexico's residency requirements.

How many of the 40 million eligible coming snow-birds with aching joints will fly south from the colder parts of America and Canada to visit Mexico?

That's a tougher nut to crack. If only 5% of them come visit, that's a fresh new 2 million snow-birds here in Mexico, with household assets of over $300,000.

Maybe the topic of the discussion should be: Who will these milliions of new snow birds be over the next 15 years?

How will this new influx of new Canadians and new Americans change things?

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You hit it "to have a change of scene and new adventures, cheaper or not" - and you just called my number. To this day I have no idea actually why I'm here, but I am and have been for 6 going on 7 years.

Things I love: The weather - totally unique, The people in large part - lovely and gracious - rather unique, my casa, I totally love it, but not unique, with a load of brick and a couple of Mexicans I could duplicate it anywhere. Now, we get to the "otro" stuff, do I love the INM, CFE, Aduana, Telmex, Telmex, Topes, Riberas streets/water, noise, Mexican adolescence - of course not, but that's the price I pay to enjoy the first 3, and I've obviously not gone postal - yet - but a bit more of this delusional discussion with the smartest guy in the room could push that trigger.

snowyco, the bet is simple, if you're so sure and so learned, then $100 says in 10 years you're not. The terms: we meet with a mutually agreed "moderator" at a restaurant, bar, you name it and set up the details of the wager and this will probably be at least a two part meeting as members of this community should be allowed to "suggest" points to be considered. We fork over equivalent pesos for $100USD to the moderator (who the heck will live 10 more?) hold it for 10 years and we see who is the smartest in the room today - and then.

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Ok, this is enough junk, you wave that census doc number around like it's some sort of God graced, gold plated, written in stone piece of Americana and can't be disputed or wrong - well my friend, fine, you chuck that baby in your shorts and put up or shut up on my $100 bet and we'll see what time and reality bring. It's your call, you can PM or be embarrassed in public, your choice.

If Yuka Steve did not cite it then it cannot be true. It is only the truth if it is what he says the truth is. Haven't you learned that yet?

Remember this Yuka, elevators smell different to short people.

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You hit it "to have a change of scene and new adventures, cheaper or not" - and you just called my number. To this day I have no idea actually why I'm here, but I am and have been for 6 going on 7 years.

Things I love: The weather - totally unique, The people in large part - lovely and gracious - rather unique, my casa, I totally love it, but not unique, with a load of brick and a couple of Mexicans I could duplicate it anywhere. Now, we get to the "otro" stuff, do I love the INM, CFE, Aduana, Telmex, Telmex, Topes, Riberas streets/water, noise, Mexican adolescence - of course not, but that's the price I pay to enjoy the first 3, and I've obviously not gone postal - yet - but a bit more of this delusional discussion with the smartest guy in the room could push that trigger.

snowyco, the bet is simple, if you're so sure and so learned, then $100 says in 10 years you're not. The terms: we meet with a mutually agreed "moderator" at a restaurant, bar, you name it and set up the details of the wager and this will probably be at least a two part meeting as members of this community should be allowed to "suggest" points to be considered. We fork over equivalent pesos for $100USD to the moderator (who the heck will live 10 more?) hold it for 10 years and we see who is the smartest in the room today - and then.

???

Ohhhhh. I was confused. I had no idea this topic was some imagined competition about who is "smartest in the room".

You are clearly much smarter than I, because I dopily thought this discussion was about what the INM requirements really are, and about whether the INM requirements are reasonable or are "ridiculous". I clearly am the dope, because I think that the Census Bureau counts of our bank accounts and retirement accounts represent how much money retiring Americans have and that the official numbers show that the typical American retiree does have the savings to qualify for Mexican residency,

I concede that you are the smartest one in the room, because every time I quote official facts that contradict the imagined proposals and false claims, then you and others change subjects. I am clearly not very bright, since I continue to follow along as you change the rules and change the topics. ??? You win !

We are still left with:

Who will these milliions of new snow birds be over the next 15 years?

How will this new influx of new Canadians and new Americans change things?

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