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Ajijic

Where is Mexico Headed?

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http://www.borderlan...-to-us-and.html

I sincerely believe, without foreign troops on the ground Mexico will only deteriorate.Then again they are already here working undercover and one was killed this year in SLP while driving. Meanwhile, read the article about the latest incidences in Texas.

And if others think otherwise, please tell me how will the escalating violence end? I am sure some have the answer and it seems to be to leave. lol Some day you may very well see UN peacekeepers here. I did not say US troops. geesh

Of course Atlas below has the answers as usual .... zero, none, nada

It took troops in Colombia to make a difference.

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http://www.borderlan...-to-us-and.html

I sincerely believe, without foreign troops on the ground Mexico will only deteriorate. Meanwhile, read the article about the latest incidences in Texas.

Yeah, just like Vietnam, Afghanistan,Iraq oops sorry there were (are) foreign troops on the ground. When will we ever learn?

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Yeah, just like Vietnam, Afghanistan,Iraq oops sorry there were (are) foreign troops on the ground. When will we ever learn?

I guess your plan would be to let them run lawless.

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I guess your plan would be to let them run lawless.

We keep forgetting that this is an autonomous country and not an extension of the United States. Intrusion from one country into another is a very dangerous proposition. Unless there is a two way cooperation between countries, we will be asking for problems. Also there are subversive groups in Mexico and they are not going to like it a little big. We may try to solved one problem but a new and very dangerous one may arise.

Cut the frenzy consumption of drugs and we will dry the supply side.The only way I could see to accomplished this is to legalized drugs with control on distribution and opportunities for drug rehab. China did had a problem with opium consumption until draconian laws were imposed. The country was going down rapidly. They banned opium consumption houses. Imposed death penalty on those selling it and closed the country to the outside. Too harsh of a solution but I think we can do something better that what we had been doing. It is not working. Drug trade and consumption had been around for centuries but we need a new approach to the problem.

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It's a violation of the Mexican Constitution to have foreign uniformed troops in Mexico but there are already non-uniformed retired U.S. military and CIA working with Mexico near the border.

Mexico can also hire a mercenary non-uniformed group like Xe, previously Black Water, and have it go after the cartels.

Some think the latest en mass assassinations of cartel members have been committed by government run or sanctioned groups.

Mata-Zetas:

The spokesman explains that they are a group called the "Mata Zetas," or Zeta Killers. They describe themselves as an "extermination" force that works as the armed front "of the people and for the people."

http://articles.cnn....?_s=PM:AMERICAS

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A kinder, gentler cartel:

http://stream.aljaze...es-drug-cartels

The Mata Zetas claim to adhere to a moral code that prevents them from engaging in kidnappings or extortion—tactics often used by drug cartels, particularly the Zetas. While the Mata Zetas claim to respect law enforcement, they admit they are working beyond the reach of the law to eliminate organised crime. “Armed forces should be aware that our only objective is to get rid of the Zeta cartel,” they said in one recent video.

Despite such overtures, Mexican authorities are speculating the group may be responsible for dumping 35 bodies in the middle of rush-hour traffic in Veracruz last week.

The Mata Zetas then issued a sort of apology for their tactics, saying “f society, Mexican populace, and federal authorities feel offended by what we've done, on behalf of the group, we apologize. Our intention was to let Veracruz know that this social scourge is not invincible.”

FelizNavidadsantaandreindeer.gif

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I believe Mexico is headed for years of uncertainty and chaos. With no solutions in sight even Mexico's president is acknowledging for the first time that democracy in Mexico could be in danger because of the cartels. I have often said on this forum in the past year or two that some states in Mexico were already failed "states" and I feared Mexico as a whole was in danger of being a failed state. Calderon's acknowledgement this week is very concerning, isn't it? When one considers that the major sources of income for Mexico (petroleum, tourism and monies sent back to Mexico by Mexcan workers in the US) decreasing and the increasing influence of the cartels and crime in Mexico, it's hard to see a rosy future for Mexico.

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I think 2012 is going to be The Year of the Witch

Which cartel will kill off all members of rival cartels and their extended families :013:

Which country will go bankrupt and level the economic playing field :017:

Which general election will be bloody or such a bad joke no one can laugh :011:

Which arm of which population will rise up in revolution :ph34r:

Which corporations will control US elections :018:

Which heat seeking missile... :o

Which...my eyes have just glazed over :wacko:

Sorry folks

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Yep too.

I'm afraid I think Mexico already is a failed state - the whole country. Heartbreakingly sad. But, I think the bad guys are in charge, one way or the other, everywhere. And, I don't see a viable solution.

Yeah, sorry too. Merry Christmas to all.

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Yep three. Sol's point, distilled, is that governments all over are in crisis. At least Mexico's is fiscally solvent. One the EU collapses and breaks up, who do you think is next? Which country replicates Greece on a grand scale?

What happened here, IMO, is that a well meaning but naive administration totally estimated the abilities of the Mexican government to take on organized crime. By breaking up well organized and disciplined criminal organizations, they unleashed a whole bunch of splinter groups some of whom have expanded their activities to involve much of the civilian population.

We are seeing here that a governmental system inheirited from the Spanish based on the mordita cannot deal with crime on a grand scale. Heck, many of those in the government are criminals too.

There's really few places to hide out from the general decay and collapse of civilization. Just be glad you aren't 20.

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Totally agree, Mainecoons. So glad I'm on the way out rather than on the way in.

I think when it's all said and done, history can say there was only one word to describe the collapse of the civilizations - greed. I'm ashamed of us.

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I think Calderon had it backwards, he started out with two goals for his administration... to stop the violent war between the cartels and to reform/reorganize the entire legal/law enforcement system. He decided (IMHO, wrongly) to start with the drug cartels instead of the infrastructure he needed to actually win such a battle. Now we have a war between the government and essentially a terrorist group of cartels and NO legal/law enforcement system to fight them with.

The future looks bleak to me. If we (meaning Mexico) could get foreign troops on the ground they'd have to be Spanish speakers from south America to be effective. The reason we need troops from somewhere far away is create a law enforcement system free of the existing corruption and cartel influence. I truly doubt any Mexican politician has the courage and foresight to do what's it's going to take to change the path we're on.... but we can hope or if you have that inclination we can pray for Mexico.

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Mainecoons, I wonder how long Mexico can remain solvent under current and near future criminal and fiscal problems. I expect not too long. Then what happens?

We already see the effects on IMSS and the dearth of enough solid police/military to maintain public security.

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Some articles suggest it will take a minimum of 10 years to turn around this country. IMHO it will get worse before it gets better as I see nothing stopping the decline. If someone sees a light at the end of the tunnel please do share.

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Over the last 5 1/2 years of Calderone's term;

the US economy has weakened, Mexico's has strengthened.

the US budget deficit has increased, Mexico's doesn't have one

the US negative trade balance has increased, Mexico's has decreased

Mexico has $billions in foreign reserves, the US is broke

Now, who's solvent?

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Please read the above Lakeheron. If you bother to do some checking, you will find that Mexico is in the top 10 of world democracies when it comes to fiscal soundness.

Man, you have really let this spate of crime get to you. Good luck in finding some crime free wonderland somewhere.

I'm sure there are some in Canada, someplace where they are so busy trying to keep from freezing to death that they can't bother with mugging.

We're going for warm and wary.

:)

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http://www.reuters.c...E79I28420111019

Mexico set to increase 2012 budget deficit.

Mexico's balance-of-trade in the article below starts out stating: "Mexico reported a trade deficit equivalent to 466 Million USD in October of 2011".

http://www.tradingec...alance-of-trade

They have handled finances relatively well while 44% of population makes less that 6000 p a month I believe. And, Mexican economy in 2009 experienced its deepest recession since the 1930s. Meanwhile the per capita GDP is 1/3 of the US and Canada. So, lets not paint too rosy a picture because many facts above are simply wrong.

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I could quote article after article about the tenuous state of Mexico's financial situation. I guess if it truly is in the top 10% of world democracies in this regard, that says a lot about the fiscal state of the world's democracies and not so much about Mexico's. As far as Mexico's being a democracy in the future, I guess we get to wait to see what happens. My heart is with Mexico where I've lived the great majority of the last 15 or so years. I speak Spanish and have many dear Mexican friends who are just as despondent as I am about where Mexico is heading in all regards.

What makes you think, Mainecoons, that my thoughts on Mexico's future ecomony is due to my being frightened by the narcos? I think that is a part of why more ex-pats are not arriving, whether to live or to vacation and contributes to Mexico's current and future situation. But equally I think that a faulty tax system, problems with past and current corruption along with the decrease in petro revenues as well as declining funds sent here by Mexican workers in the US (as they get deported) play a huge role in the problem.

Here is one article, just one of a kizillion:

http://www.americasq....org/node/2311/

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Over the last 5 1/2 years of Calderone's term; the US economy has weakened, Mexico's has strengthened. the US budget deficit has increased, Mexico's doesn't have one the US negative trade balance has increased, Mexico's has decreased Mexico has $billions in foreign reserves, the US is broke Now, who's solvent?

In the last 5 1/2 years the peso went from 9 to 1 to 13 to 1...

Mexico's 'billions in foreign reserves' is compliments of the IMF and loans.

Mexico has a negative trade balance and no way to deal with it, the economy is small and fragile unlike it's northern neighbor who continues to attract large foreign investment.

The US budget deficit is out of control but the reality is if the US falters against other benchmark currencies the Peso will collapse.

Mexico runs the government mainly on oil profits, the output of Pemex wells is falling every year and while they claim to have reserves there is virtually no true new drilling going on and the lead time to production IF they ever start (and IF the claimed reserves are real, which has been doubted) is years.

Mexico has a virtually broken system of tax collection and there is no infrastructure to build on. The corruption and bribery here in business is legendary around the world.

Mexico has half the country living below THEIR idea of a poverty level and NO education system or plan to change that.

Without the 'free' sources of foreign income into the economy... narco money, receipts from ex-pat Mexicans working in the US and tourism all contributing there is nothing solid or maybe even sustainable about this economy.... The 40 or more Billion dollars of narco money comes with an economic price however, just as we've seen locally as we have become a plaza 'in play' lot's of local productive businesses have closed. Extortion costs a lot more than the dollars they take, it closes businesses, stops new ones from starting and is responsible for the increasing unemployment.

Lots of people believe the government numbers... and even smart powerful people. They also believed derivatives were really triple A bonds too. Most Mexicans we know understand that the government numbers are political in nature not actual fact. Just before the last collapse and devaluation the government came out with a rosy forecast and assured the international community that they had everything under control, which was true right us until they didn't. Just as an example, do you believe the government number of 7% unemployment? If so than buy long term positions on the peso, I won't be doing that. Another was this year the tourism folks said it was a record year for tourism here, while plane passenger landings are down 30%, ship passenger landings even more and the RV parks along the coast are at half occupancy... so how did that 'record' number of tourists get to Mexico?

There are lots of people who see what's going on here, just as many predicted the derivative driven housing bubble but were ignored and many predicted few or no weapons of mass destruction would be found in Iraq but the press and conventional wisdom runs with the herd and often comes back later and says 'who could have known what was going to happen?' when LOTS of people did but they just didn't want to hear them. Mexico's economic situation is obvious if you just look around.

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In the last 5 1/2 years the peso went from 9 to 1 to 13 to 1...

Mexico's 'billions in foreign reserves' is compliments of the IMF and loans.

Mexico has a negative trade balance

The Peso has not hit a high of 9 in the last 5 years. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MXN=X&t=1d#chart2:symbol=mxn=x;range=5y;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined

Mexico"s foreign reserves are not IMF loans.

Mexico's negative trade balance is miniscule

Mexico has the 12th largest economy in the world.

Check Yahoo Finance and/or The Economist for further details. You're welcome to your own opinion but not your own facts.

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Between 1910 and 1929, Mexico had a catastrophic Revolution, including the Cristero war in the late 20s. One out of seven people died or left the country. The US militarily intervened at Vera Cruz (1914) and when Gen. Pershing chased Pancho Villa all around northern Mexico (1916-1917). Anyone who thinks things look bleak now should read Mexico's history (along with the history of the abortive, tragi-comic interventions).

The overwhelming majority of Mexico is peaceful, things function pretty well more or less, and life goes on for the vast majority of people. There are areas with real problems, all too often criminals act with impunity (as do officials sometimes), and, very occasionally, among the tragedies there are those that affect expats.

A failed state? Get a grip people.

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"The Peso has not hit a high of 9 in the last 5 years".

I think that was the low exchange.

According to the graph

the peso was 9.9 to the dollar in July 2008 and went up to 14.1 to the dollar in Nov. this year.

If you took away the drug money, loans, tourism, and checked the underground petroleum levels your information on the economy would look pretty pitiful.

This from Quarterly Americas:

"Mexico is heavily reliant on outside sources of funding to sustain its environmental and social programs. For example, since 2010, the Mexican government has received $4.3 billion in loans from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the World Bank (WB) to fund environmental programs related to the COP-16 climate change agenda. Goals include public transport emission reductions, forest preservation and increased use of renewable energy. In January 2011, the IDB granted the last of these loans—$600 million to improve the sewage pipes of 20,000 schools and to expand drinking water availability in rural areas.

In addition, during 2010, Mexico borrowed $2 billion from the WB to fund education programs and the expansion of Seguro Popular, a federal health program focused on the uninsured, low-income population. The Mexican government also borrowed $2 billion from the WB and the IDB to fund Oportunidades, a program that assists 25 million low-income people with conditional cash-transfers to promote school attendance and medical checkups.

But why has the Mexican government relied on overseas funding for these important programs? The answer: tax revenue cannot cover these expenditures. The government relies on oil revenue from the state-owned company Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), which has seen its revenue decline due to a drying up of the Cantarell oil field. In total, in 2010, oil extraction was 14 percent below 2000 levels—half a million barrels less.

Meanwhile, the federal government’s non-oil tax revenue has yet to compensate for this shortfall. Continued exemptions and loopholes continue to drastically reduce income and consumption tax revenue."

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