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Peso v Dollar


tobyjug

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not so good for those who bought bonds in pesos however.....

Any time the peso creeps like this my worry is it'll run away, Usually the government has a target exchange and they start to step in when it's getting close, I haven't seen that happen yet this time so maybe the target is closer to 14? Since exchange rates are so critical to economies and governments staying in power there really is no such thing as a truly 'floating' currency in today's world.

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Good for Mexican exports and this time Mexican government may not intervene unless a big drop. This is happening in many countries with governments trying to keep the value of their currency down to aid exports. For past year or more the Mexican peso and C$ kept a similar relationship to each other and US$ but now the Mexican peso is in itself dropping.

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Who is in this concensus?

Would you post a link to published info?

Here is a great chart of the long term "consensus" for the dollar: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt081211/dollar_usd.gif

Its a month old, so does not show current dollar strengthening... but you can see the macro trend clearly.

Re consensus on the near term up trend, here is one view: http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=6A74F9BD-E689-6B2D-D30BD68C12316EE4

The near term is up for sure... not sure that rally will last 12-18 months however.

LOTS of great analysis on dollar trends and economics here: http://dollarcollapse.com/

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Good in the short run. Long term, it means higher prices here and probably higher inflation. Not so good!

The last time the Peso dropped to 14 to 1 was about 2 or 3 years ago. Local prices did go up then, but only about 12%. We were still ahead. Right now, my crystal ball is in the shop, so I don't know how we will fare this time.

Rex

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