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navyvet

Winter getting here early, climate change?

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I don't know who's spot on and who's fullavit, but we just had another pile of wood delivered. Brr. "They say" it's an el nina phenomenon this year.

Glad I kept some of my warm NOB clothes.

The biggest threat to civilization as we have known it is 7 billion people and counting. The math is, unfortunately, easy. .

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I covered my windows with plastic from the hardware store for $55 pesos. this means four slated windows cannot let the frigid breezes through no more;)

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It was a peer reviewed study. Which I notice you don't back your "nonsense" claim up against. While you're at it, perhaps you'd like to explain the latest email exposure of "scientists" cooking the science to try and keep the global warming fantasy alive. That bunch is more than a few of your "experts." Seems they are particularly expert at politicizing science instead of practicing scientific impartiality and skepticism.

Note that the "solution" of getting rid of everyone's cars and shutting down all the coal fired power plants doesn't take all those other factors like deforestation, paving and urbanization into effect. What would you do about these?

Interesting chart at the bottom of this reference. Sure don't want another one of those mini ice ages, let alone one of the big ones. Cold kills a lot more folks than warmth.

I'll go for the warm phases, thanks. :)

http://www.longrange...emperatures.htm

It is obviously a very flawed study. Maybe 5% of scientists have cooked some data. The data that show there is global warming and climate change and that it is on going is overwhelming from all parts of the world and from thousands of researchers. Some people still think the earth is flat regardless of the facts.

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What? Me worry? The Earth has experienced many mass extinctions in its history. What else is new?

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Whatsamatter Marty, topic too sophisticated fer ya? Maybe you can find some expertise up there at Dona's Donuts to help you. You've definitely found an expanding wasteline there, who knows, there might be much, much more.

Do yourself a favor and buy a heater. You're going to need it, psuedo scientific nonsense notwithstanding. Gonna get colder all over, iincluding here.

LOL

Sorry Dan, you must have me mixed up with someone else, I haven't been to Donna's for 7 years. And thak you very much, I have heaters. And yes we are going to need them this year.

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It is obviously a very flawed study. Maybe 5% of scientists have cooked some data. The data that show there is global warming and climate change and that it is on going is overwhelming from all parts of the world and from thousands of researchers. Some people still think the earth is flat regardless of the facts.

Still waiting for you to document your statements. :)

Viajero, thanks for verifying the credibility of my last reference.

Climatologist Cliff Harris has been often rated as one of the top ten climatologists in the world for nearly 4 decades.

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Think Progress? Are they climatological scientists too? The "New Scientist"? What is their agenda?

The very fact that there is so much disagreement among credible climatologists should alert the lay community that this is not nearly as cut and dried as some folks with a political agenda would like you to believe.

Believe what you like, just don't pretend that this is a done deal.

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Okay - I will bite! Who is Cliff Harris? So I found an interesting comment on a forum the Rutgers Science site http://sci.rutgers.e...ead.php?t=92074

if you look up Cliff Harris and Randy Mann, you will find that they are two guys who run a website
and that neither are trained as a climatologist or a metereologist, unless one considered appearing on television to report weather or studying geology to be training for such a field. Harris apparently is a conservative Christian who believes in looking in the Bible for clues on what the weather will be

And who says he is one the top 10climatologists? Why he does. Does anyone else? Nope.

So this was a joke, right?

If you are interested in Climate Change, I suggest you stick with real scientists not the crazies - this is the best website I have found - http://www.realclima.../05/start-here/

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You mean like the "New Scientist?" From Wikpedia:

New Scientist is a weekly non-peer-reviewed English-language international science magazine[2], which since 1996 has also run a website, covering recent developments in science and technology for a general audience. Founded in 1956, it is published by Reed Business Information Ltd, a subsidiary of Reed Elsevier. The company Albert E. Reed acquired New Scientist when it merged with IPC Magazines in 1970, retaining the magazine when it sold most of its consumer magazines in a management buyout to what is now IPC Media.

The magazine covers current developments, news, and commentary from the scientific community, including environmental issues such as climate change. It also prints speculative articles, ranging from the technical to the philosophical. There is a readers' letters section which discusses recent articles, and discussion on the website.

New Scientist is based in London, England, and publishes UK, U.S. and Australian editions. Roger Highfield became editor in 2008.

Note: NON PEER REVIEWED

We can argue credibility all day long. That is not the only reference out there about stabilizing/falling termperatures. Believe what you like. Those of us who are more skeptical note the many papers pointing out how limited the models being used to advocate this theory and the growing conflict in the data about whether temperatures are still rising or not. I sure don't pay much attention to organizations that have an obvious axe to grind like the references that you and Willie provided, sorry. Your source is IPCC, the very group that has been up to their necks in these email exposures.

Here is another source with a lot of hard data, and an obviously different point of view.

http://www.climatecooling.org/

The joke is thinking that we have a fraction of the information and scientific capability to understand, let alone place the blame, for global climate change. :)

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An analogy: Yesterday, the talking heads were all excited at the rapid upswing in the DOW. Today it is flat and remains much below the value a month ago.

Excitement over a brief upturn, in stocks or in temperatures, is invalid. It is the long term trend that is important; in the case of average world temperatures, very dangerous to life on this planet.

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You mean like the "New Scientist?" From Wikpedia:

Note: NON PEER REVIEWED

We can argue credibility all day long. That is not the only reference out there about stabilizing/falling termperatures. Believe what you like. Those of us who are more skeptical note the many papers pointing out how limited the models being used to advocate this theory and the growing conflict in the data about whether temperatures are still rising or not. I sure don't pay much attention to organizations that have an obvious axe to grind like the references that you and Willie provided, sorry. Your source is IPCC, the very group that has been up to their necks in these email exposures.

Here is another source with a lot of hard data, and an obviously different point of view.

http://www.climatecooling.org/

The joke is thinking that we have a fraction of the information and scientific capability to understand, let alone place the blame, for global climate change. :)

Common now - this is a running joke - right? This guy is a photographer and fisher guy.

Geez this is from the About Us on the website - Dr. John T. Everett (Résumé)

President
,
. -- Fisheries and Oceans Consulting and Photography.
OAI
provides professional consulting services to government organizations, the private sector, academia, and UN agencies. OAI's dozens of scientists have carried out ocean and fisheries projects throughout the world. Our senior experts couple diverse work experiences as scientists and senior managers with exceptional educational backgrounds and contacts throughout the United States and world-wide. Teams of OAI Associates and affiliates can be fielded quickly, anywhere, to do analyses, plans, evaluations, and technical reports on oceans and fisheries affairs.

Owner and photographer
.
. OceansArt.US specializes in photography in, on, and around the ocean, rivers, and lakes, including scenery, wildlife, and the human use of our planet's waters. There are hundreds of free photos including boats for fishing, sailing and recreation, shore scenes, seals, lighthouses, floatplanes, and forts plus coastal birds, insects, and flowers. There are also free pictures of favorite cities and zoos and aquariums. Also available are prints and unrestricted, royalty free, licenses for use of higher resolution digital images. Pictures are available for browsing and downloading by topic.

I agree with you that we don't have the knowledge and probably the intelligence to model climate change. I disagree about the IPCC emails - scientists have a right to disagree - so if someone hacks their emails, they don't see 100% agreement (wouldn't that be collusion) - and it is really difficult for me to understand the benefits of the high levels of CO2 - and really easy for me to see the risks -

Geez - I hope everyone realizes that you are trying to pull their chain - and that you don't really believe that the links you are providing have any credibility. That is true, isn't it

:wacko:

:wacko:

:wacko:

:wacko:

:wacko:

:wacko:

:wacko:

:wacko:

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What? Me worry? The Earth has experienced many mass extinctions in its history. What else is new?

These changes are coming much faster and affecting much more people. Overpopulation must have some effect on these changes in conjunction with the natural process of the planet evolution.

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No Max, I'm trying to get you to understand the real joke is this treatment of this topic like a religion. You know, like running around and pretending the ice is still melting when the Antarctic is accumulating and the Arctic is rebounding. Let's see you address the references there.

There's a difference between science and religion. This is a religion to you, it isn't to me. :)

And on that basis, I see no reason for the U.S. to gut its already failing economy with wholesale, hair brained schemes on the basis of a lot of unproven science while the Chinese, Indians, Russians and most every other developing country just keeps right on pumping the CO2 out. You do know that China is the world's #1 polluter and producer of C02 now, don't you?

LOL

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These changes are coming much faster and affecting much more people. Overpopulation must have some effect on these changes in conjunction with the natural process of the planet evolution.

Absolutely overpopulation is going to be a significant problem - and present extreme stress on many resources - such as water, farmland, food. For example - Water wars are being predicted based on assumed changes in rainfall - amount and location - so you will see a stressed resource getting more stressed. China/India/Pakistan are already growling at each other over the effect of dams - and the resulting impact to river flow which impacts agriculture.

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No Max, I'm trying to get you to understand the real joke is this treatment of this topic like a religion. You know, like running around and pretending the ice is still melting when the Antarctic is accumulating and the Arctic is rebounding. Let's see you address the references there.

Took me 10 seconds to find an article published today on the artic - not rebounding - http://abcnews.go.co...66#.Ttf5HLJCqU8

Federal officials say the Arctic region has changed dramatically in the past five years — for the worse.
It's melting at a near record pace, and it's darkening and absorbing too much of the sun's heat.
A new report card from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration rates the polar region with blazing red stop lights on three of five categories and yellow cautions for the other two. Overall, these are not good grades, but it doesn't mean the Arctic is doomed and it still will freeze in the winter, said report co-editor Jackie Richter-Menge.
The Arctic acts as Earth's refrigerator, cooling the planet. What's happening, scientists said, is like someone pushing the fridge's thermostat much too high.
"It's not cooling as well as it used to," Richter-Menge said.
The dramatic changes are from both man-made global warming and recent localized weather shifts, which were on top of the longer term warming trend, scientists said.
The report, written by 121 scientists from around the world, said statistics point to a shift in the Arctic health in 2006. That was right before 2007, when a mix of weather conditions and changing climate led to a record loss of sea ice, from which the region has never recovered. This summer's sea ice melt was the second worst on record, a tad behind 2007.
"We've got a new normal," said co-author Don Perovich, a geophysicist at the Army Corps of Engineers Cold Research and Engineering Lab. "Whether it's a tipping point and we'll never recover, who's to say?"
The report highlighted statistics to show an Arctic undergoing change:
—A NASA satellite found that 430 billion metric tons of ice melted in Greenland from 2010 to 2011, and the melting is accelerating. Since 2000, Greenland's 39 widest glaciers shrunk by nearly 530 square miles, about the equivalent of 22 Manhattans.
—The past five years have had the five lowest summer sea ice levels on record. For two straight years, all three major passages through the Arctic have been open in the summer, which is unusual.
—Seven of 19 polar bear sub-populations are shrinking.
—This year's temperature is roughly 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than what had been normal since 1980.
What's even more troubling to scientists is that there's been a record darkening of the normally white Arctic land and sea. White snow and ice reflects solar energy, but a melting darker Arctic in the summer absorbs that heat.
Marco Tedesco of the City College of New York, a co-author, said the darkening is like a speeding train going downhill, adding to the acceleration of warming.
Richter-Menge said the darkening of the Arctic from melting ice and snow "causes more heating, which causes more melting, and on the cycle goes."
But there are some winners in the warming. The phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean, at the base of the marine food chain, has increased 20 percent compared with the past decade, and some plants are doing better, scientists said.

For the antartic, took me longer - at least 2 minutes

Here is a recent article from June - http://www.bloomberg...-indicates.html

West Antarctica’s biggest glacier is melting 50 percent faster than in 1994, adding to a global increase in sea levels, U.S. and U.K. scientists found.

And here is a nice article from Nasa - which explains what is happening. Here is just one piece of the article:

Meanwhile, measurements from the Grace satellites confirm that Antarctica is losing mass
11
. Isabella Velicogna of JPL and the University of California, Irvine, uses Grace data to weigh the Antarctic ice sheet from space. Her work shows that the ice sheet is not only losing mass, but it is losing mass at an accelerating rate. "The important message is that it is not a linear trend. A linear trend means you have the same mass loss every year. The fact that it’s above linear, this is the important idea, that ice loss is increasing with time," she says. And she points out that it isn’t just the Grace data that show accelerating loss; the radar data do, too. "It isn't just one type of measurement. It's a series of independent measurements that are giving the same results, which makes it more robust."
For more information about this topic, visit
website.

I don't disagree that many of the models are probably wrong. We simply do not have the ability/understanding to model the earth. And - spending many years in the computer industry, I understand the fallacy of models - they are only as good as the input - and a model is just another computer program written by real people - granted they are getting more and more sophisticated - but still have a long long ways to go. I also realize that we historically have the inability to predict the future. So I do agree that what is specifically predicted will not happen - we don't usually understand consequences of an action in this arena until after it happens. Golly we really don't understand that much about oceans - which are going to be significant players. On the other hand, we cannot deny what is really happening and will continue to happen. A good example is sea level rise. To deny that somethings will happen is ludicrous. The facts are there. What is unknown is to what extent they will happen - and the unforeseen/unknown consequences which will impact an event. Sea level rise is probably again a good example.

And I still think you are joking.

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Max, have you thought about renting a church for your global warming religion? Attendance around here should be good.

You might start with this one, from your NASA site:

Uncertainties

http://climate.nasa.gov/uncertainties/

BTW, you do know that in the past the north pole has been ice free at times. Must have been all those sport utes the dinos were driving, eh?

You didn't share with us how you're going to enroll the Chinese, et. al., into your new religion.

:)

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Max, have you thought about renting a church for your global warming religion? Attendance around here should be good.

You might start with this one, from your NASA site:

Uncertainties

http://climate.nasa.gov/uncertainties/

BTW, you do know that in the past the north pole has been ice free at times. Must have been all those sport utes the dinos were driving, eh?

You didn't share with us how you're going to enroll the Chinese, et. al., into your new religion.

:)

The art of civility is sometimes lost on this board - and your comments are a good example. There was no reason for you to toss out personal insults.

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Max, that's not an insult, that's humor. You are making my point that you have no scientific detachment about this topic. You come across like it is some kind of deeply held faith with you. This is like arguing religion, can't possibly win that one.

I could have gone and found a number of references saying the ice is increasing (it is piling up in the eastern Antarctic and melting in the west) but what is the point? I could put up reference after reference that temperatures are beginning to drop, but what is the point? I could point out to you that the actual measured rate of CO2 increase is half the IPCC estimate, but what is the point? You are a true believer rather than a detached observer.

Believe what you want. But there's nothing more uncivil in my equating your fervor to religion than your telling me I'm joking and ridiculing the credible sources I post because they don't agree with your beliefs, and filling your post with smiley faces.

And I'll bet you have no technical training which would have instilled in you some healthy skepticism about this whole business. Which you would definitely benefit from. Whether you like it or not, as the information accumulates on this it is plain to anyone with a background in science and engineering that this science has a long way to go before anyone should base policy on it.

So let's stop wasting bandwidth here. :)

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Mad_max great posts. Those who watch FIX news for a major news source are known to be the least informed based on very recent surveys. They disgaree the earth is getting warmer faster than any time known and humans contribute anthey likely ignore the huge amount of pollution on this earth. But they also believe the President was not born in the US and that Palin was a viable VP candidate. You can argue until blue in the face, give lots of facts and when you post what is even 90% right they will dwell on the 10%. They use sarcasm and personal insults and would normally be stopped but in this case we know why not. :017:

So let's stop wasting bandwidth. :wacko:

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It looks like someone has cat scratch fever!

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No offense Mainecoons but GCC is real and getting worse faster than predicted. Average Artic temps are rising every year, Glaciers are melting all around the world.... for example Glacier National Park will be glacier free in a generation.... a blink of geologic time. Who ever is telling you anything different is either lying or scientifically illiterate. The evidence is truly overwhelming except in Fox News La La land.

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MC,

I wanted you to understand......

that my links to the web site of some of your references was to allow folks to see how laughable they were -

"Climatologists" - radio weathermen in Idaho and a fellow that made a few weather scrapbooks and believes the bible can help him understand climate changes....

- you've got to be kidding....

And I've told you before that your attempts to "help us understand" is condescending and you have no foundation to help us understand anything..... You just have your beliefs .... If I'm wrong, tell us your qualifications on economics or climate science...

(For two of the things you want to help us understand).

You just want us to believe what you believe (or profess to believe)....

What makes you think you have a corner on intelligence or education on Climate Change or Economics?

We can all go find blogs that support our opinion

- it doesn't make us right...

- it doesn't prove we're more educated....

But your helping us understand while hurling personal insults to those you're trying to "educate"...

Well, if you've read this thread and others like those on Social Security from months past,

you understand that many differ from your POV and we don't insult you for your viewpoint.

We might question how you know what you think you know.

And we know we can't "help you understand" and wont try.

But we won't discuss physical traits or other personal characteristics as you've sunk to doing.

Who do you think you are?

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