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Will Many Americans Be Buying Homes in Mexico


Ajijic

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In our development of 30 homes, 4 were re-sold to new owners in the past year, all of whom were Americans. I found that rather interesting considering the state of the American economy versus the state of the Canadian economy.

Statistically speaking,the actions of four individuals out of a total homeowning population in the US of 100+ million are not of sufficient significance to substantiate any observations one way or the other about the state of the American economy.

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Or perhaps renting in the US http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/business/31housing.html

Even as the economy began to fitfully recover in the last year, the percentage of homeowners dropped sharply, to 66.4 percent, from a peak of 69.2 percent in 2004

The economy beginning to recover is a fiction. One brief blip does not a recovery make. Unemployment in the U.S. is rising again, the PMI (purchasing manager index) is falling rapidly, the whole house of cards built on debt and government waste is collapsing. You cannot have prosperity and high employment in a country as fiscally and economically out of balance as the U.S. is.

Interesting Canadian perspective on this "recovery."

http://bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17110:us-housing-vicious-circle-worsens&catid=47:us-commentary&Itemid=132

The advice to get your assets out of the U.S. and out of the dollar is more true and urgent than ever.

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Statistically speaking,the actions of four individuals out of a total homeowning population in the US of 100+ million are not of sufficient significance to substantiate any observations one way or the other about the state of the American economy.

With all due respect, the point was that 4 out of 4 homes sold in their development were bought by Americans, not Canadians. Doesn't have anything to do with the US homeowning population.

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Statistically speaking,the actions of four individuals out of a total homeowning population in the US of 100+ million are not of sufficient significance to substantiate any observations one way or the other about the state of the American economy.

With all due respect, the point was that 4 out of 4 homes sold in their development were bought by Americans, not Canadians. Doesn't have anything to do with the US homeowning population.

Exactly. I just thought with all the doom and gloom of the housing crisis in the U.S., and the Canadian housing market being in much better shape, it was kind of interesting that all our buyers were Americans. Just a strange coincidence, I guess. I would have thought that there would have been more Canadians buying at the moment, but that's not how it turned out for us.

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Statistically speaking,the actions of four individuals out of a total homeowning population in the US of 100+ million are not of sufficient significance to substantiate any observations one way or the other about the state of the American economy.

With all due respect, the point was that 4 out of 4 homes sold in their development were bought by Americans, not Canadians. Doesn't have anything to do with the US homeowning population.

You could also say that 4 resales out of a new 30-home development equals 13% of all homes in the control group. Or even that 100% of all home sales in the control population are resales. Sorry, tomgates, from which ether did you grab that comment?

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the whole house of cards built on debt and government waste is collapsing. You cannot have prosperity and high employment in a country as fiscally and economically out of balance as the U.S. is.

Interesting Canadian perspective on this "recovery."

http://bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17110:us-housing-vicious-circle-worsens&catid=47:us-commentary&Itemid=132

The advice to get your assets out of the U.S. and out of the dollar is more true and urgent than ever.

[/quote

So the house of cards is collapsing due to debt and waste...

How do you think the debt can be reduced - or should it be reduced? Cut taxes? Raise taxes? Isn't much of the debt to the SS Trust fund? Let's just stop SS checks and terminate that debt and interest.

What items in the government do you see as waste? Do you think there should be a government? What would you do away with?

Where do you recommend putting all our retirement savings?

Where are yours? Gold, Silver, ? Do you actually trust a company like the bullion hawkers? What country would you trust to keep your gold? Can you get it there?

Thanks in advance for your clarifications to your earlier statements about the house of cards.

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the whole house of cards built on debt and government waste is collapsing. You cannot have prosperity and high employment in a country as fiscally and economically out of balance as the U.S. is.

Interesting Canadian perspective on this "recovery."

http://bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17110:us-housing-vicious-circle-worsens&catid=47:us-commentary&Itemid=132

The advice to get your assets out of the U.S. and out of the dollar is more true and urgent than ever.

[/quote

So the house of cards is collapsing due to debt and waste...

How do you think the debt can be reduced - or should it be reduced? Cut taxes? Raise taxes? Isn't much of the debt to the SS Trust fund? Let's just stop SS checks and terminate that debt and interest.

What items in the government do you see as waste? Do you think there should be a government? What would you do away with?

Where do you recommend putting all our retirement savings?

Where are yours? Gold, Silver, ? Do you actually trust a company like the bullion hawkers? What country would you trust to keep your gold? Can you get it there?

Thanks in advance for your clarifications to your earlier statements about the house of cards.

A good one. Buy gold coins. My favorite one is the English sovereign. I buy at regular prices and have sold a few on ebay at above gold prices. But mainly I stash em.

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For those of us that live full time in Mexico, stashing is a security problem. I prefer to buy GLD ETF fund with NOB dollars. You can also invest in GDX(Miners) or GLD through investment accounts at Actinver.

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For those of us that live full time in Mexico, stashing is a security problem. I prefer to buy GLD ETF fund with NOB dollars. You can also invest in GDX(Miners) or GLD through investment accounts at Actinver.

But in the end, don't you still just have pieces of paper supposedly representing the value of the gold you own? Who's to say you have anything more valuable than the paper itself and the tiny amount of ink on it? Go with canned beans and Uzis, the only investments likely to retain their value when the collapse comes...LoL

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Banks holding back on foreclosures

Banks can't hold back repos for long

Nearly half of all US mortgages under water in 2011

These three stories give an even bleaker picture of the housing market.

In the first, banks are dallying on beginning the foreclosure process in a huge number of cases in order to avoid having to carry large numbers of these properties on their books.

In the second, the banks already have huge numbers of foreclosed properties on their books, particularly high end properties, that they don't want to list for sale in fear of further depressing the markets. But they can't keep them off much longer, and some experts see them flooding the market in the second half of this year.

In the third, Deutchbank believes almost 1/2 (48%) of all US mortgages will be "under water" (worth less than the amount of mortgate) in 2011. In such a situation, many people turn over their keys and walk away and others are foreclosed when they lose (or can't get) a job, or run into unexpected expenses such as health care issues.

The US has just recorded a bigger drop (33%) in housing prices than the Great Depression, according to the article originally cited in this thread. Hold on to your hats, folks. I think that 33% only represents a brief plateau before the real housing crash.

Those hoping to sell their Lake Chapala area homes any time soon had better hope they get a Canadian, European, or Mexican buyer. If you are waiting on the Americans, you'd better pack a sandwich.

Other than the above, have a nice day!

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One other factor is gasoline costs. When oil went to almost $150 a barrel gas was $4 a gallon in US. This time it was about $110 and again aprox. $4 a gallon. I see no reason for it but speculators.

At same time when gas goes up most items we buy go up as most everything is delivered using gasoline.

Gasoline going up creates no new jobs. Meanwhile, one's discretionary income is sucked up. That may have been money one used to buy furnishings, electronics, clothes, entertainment, ability to save, money for mortgages etc.

The bottom line is higher gasoline costs are slowing down economies around the world including the US. This is slowing job creation, lowering GDP growth and every aspect of money flow. Unfortunately, the possibility of a double dip recession, while not for sure becomes a little more possible. And, there is no way oil is going to drop much so it is a long term burden sucking middle class and low income families dry. Meanwhile the oil companies generate millions daily.

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There have always been Americans retiring with enough money to buy houses here for cash and if the whole world economy doesn't crash like it almost did in 2008 there will be some coming down. The point that we are not going to be buried in baby boomers with hundreds of thousands of dollars in home equity from the US in their fists coming down is pretty obvious. The question of house values is more about comparing south Florida and Phoenix prices to here... that is the competition for new retirees.

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There have always been Americans retiring with enough money to buy houses here for cash and if the whole world economy doesn't crash like it almost did in 2008 there will be some coming down. The point that we are not going to be buried in baby boomers with hundreds of thousands of dollars in home equity from the US in their fists coming down is pretty obvious. The question of house values is more about comparing south Florida and Phoenix prices to here... that is the competition for new retirees.

I suspect that the competition would narrow if the prospective buyers visited Phoenix. Can't speak for Florida. :rolleyes:

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Here's another perpective--I did not move here for the weather- but for other reasons- Kids have been pressuring to "come home" but have resisited but decided to think about it sometime in the future becasue of falling home prices.- But

I've been looking and trying to buy a house in No. Calif. for the past 2 months near where my kids live and have their careers.This would be an investment , rented out for a minimum of 2 years, with the possibility that I would one day return and live in the home.

I'm looking in an area that has high employment, but has seen a significant drop in prices ( 40-50%) over the past 2 years as homeowners saw value of homes drop- fabulous homes - all built within the past 7 years-$2,000,000.00 homes selling for 850,000. etc.

I've been looking in a specific gated country club community w/golf course with a mix of larger expensive homes, and about 40 smaller single level homes- Villas -2800-3200sf on smaller lots.with HOA's that cover landscaping maintanence and guarded entry. I talked with 1 neighbor of a house that got 4offers in 3 hours- they told me they had paid over 700,000. for their home- but they wern''t going anywhere and didn't care about the price drops on neighboring homes.told me 2 neighbors are currently paying up to 2800. per month

I have been outbid 5 times in the past 2 weeks for one of these homes -they sell in 24 hours with mulitple bids over asking prices starting at 332,000.00.

In every case by a retired couple moving from the San Francisco Bay area who were willing to pay up to 400,000.00 and had been waiting for these particular homes to come on the market for up to a year. WHY I asked- This area has 4 Del Webb Sun City communities nearby--( 45 min from Napa- 1.5 hrs to SFO -2 hrs to Lake Tahoe) - where homes start in the high 575,000.00 +++ . The country club homes are obviously a better buy without the 55+ age restriction. Last week I bid on a home across the street from Del Webb with its own HOA- and broker told me- I needed to up my offer or B of A would not even look at the paper because I was 10,000 under asking price!-I said NO ---they said they'll wait becasue bank wants 30,000 more.

Even though people are being forced out of their homes --I asked my broker " who's buying" she said families who have been waiting to get into the market- had good jobs etc.and could qualify for loans and investors who are paying cash.

- I saw1 house that sold new in late 2006 for 770,000.00-4200 sf- owners were trying to sell at 429,000.000- 10 days later bank forced short sale- broker listed at 329,000,00.House sold in 24 hours, as did another same model. Also, investors buying in the 200,000.00 range can buy newer 4 bed 3 bath-2300-2600sf.homes with granite kitchens etc. they rent to families who have lost their homes but still have jobs and don't want to leave the area. One investor lived in Kansas, had a broker buying several houses at a time and renting them for 1800.00- 2,200.00 per month..

As for people coming to Lakeside---Retirees who have a great lifestyle in a mild/ moderate climate- beautiful springs, warm summers- no humidity but cooler winters and are near their children and grandchildren are never going to consider moving to Florida, Arizona and never Mexico. They will instead leave the more expensive areas near the cities and move further out - but within driving distance of family, friends etc.

as long as Americans can live in a good climate , nicer communities, with all the amenties, pay a 1% property tax and be near family- there is no incentive to move to a foriegin country. othen than for a short vacation.= but for Californians it won't be Mexcio under the current conditons.

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Privado many good points and the first is, when the price is perceived as being fair market value people buy. A friend finally sold in Santa Fe, NM, a home which I sold him as an associate broker in 2003. It has been listed for 4 years. His selling price was basically what he paid for it ($750K) while having it listed too high for most of the 4 years. The mistake he made was in being behind the curve when he did his price reductions. He never quite reduced enough each time. Meanwhile, he had it totally financed at $4500 a month. But to show where the market is, he now rents a nicer home priced at $1.3 million for 900 a month. It is not possible to do that at lakeside.

The other plus NOB is while not as easy to get, mortgages are available. However, that too is changing here in Mexico with Bancomer having mortgages of $100,000 and up at 6%, 25% down and closing costs of approx 3%. Terms include both fixed and ARM.

Also, one has to consider the quality of home to which you refer. In California they are built with building codes and therefor less "risk" compared to homes in Mexico. Plus parts of CA offers some great weather.

Lakeside in general is overpriced so a negative when it comes to selling. Unfortunately, the GIL MLS lacks transparency so another huge disadvantage. One buying especially in a foreign country in this day and age wants stats and comps. Those are very difficult to near impossible to achieve here. For comparison look at say Santa FE, NM where hundreds of stats are produced monthly by the SFAR mls. These stats gives one confidence that they are paying fair market value. A foreign buyer has little confidence of this point in Mexico. Geesh you can not even know how many houses sold on mls last month. As an former associate broker in Ontario Canada and NM, not so smart I would say.

In San Miguel I just bought a new home with boveda ceilings in every room. It is 1600 sq ft of enclosed home plus 540 sq ft of covered patio. Oddly, in Mexico they market that as being 200 sq meters (2140 sq ft). NOB to compare apples to apples that is 1600 sq ft ie 150 sq meters. The lot is 11,000 sq ft / 1000 sq meters. It has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, cistern with roof collection, polished concrete floors, 2 on-demand hot water heaters. Price ... $135,000!

One other point are property taxes. Friend's home in FT Myers FL has property taxed of $400. They were 1600 but due to new assessment a huge drop. Plus if one pays significantly less for a house those saving can pay for property taxes for a very long time.

Privado you also mentioned "current conditions" and I have to agree as they do impact on peoples' perceptions. You do not see people asking to join convoys in Canada jejejeje. Mind you, to me, just makes you a bigger target.

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"as long as Americans can live in a good climate , nicer communities, with all the amenties, pay a 1% property tax and be near family- there is no incentive to move to a foriegin country. othen than for a short vacation.= but for Californians it won't be Mexcio under the current conditons. "

1% property tax-if you're referring to California,that is pretty much a thing of the past. Communities have found ways around the Prop 13 limit by Mello-Roos assessment bonds,etc. Our kids bought a house in San Diego County six months ago-their total tax comes to 1.5% of their purchase price. Still a bargain compared with Texas,NJ,and other places,but the purchase prices are a lot higher to make up for it.

Their purchase of a house was difficult because of so many buyers in the market. The desirable communities seem to be doing well,it's the dumpy areas where nobody would want to live anyway that are still experiencing problems.

We were Californians before moving to Mexico, "current conditions" as you put it did not deter us. We have several other friends here from both Northern and Southern California living in Guad and Lakeside

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Here is another view: I lived for 30 years in San Francisco and had a house in Sonoma County, the area around Roseville , greater Sacramento and Sockton Privado is speaking about are areas where we would not dream of living.

We do not have any kids so we are not pulled towards any particular area and these areas are not on our map, I would live in Mexico in a split second before I would consider living there.

Living in a subburban house surrounded by a cultural desert is not every American dream. There will be people who can afford a nice house and still will come to Mexico.

You are kidding yourself if you think you will ever go to San Francisco on a regular basis or even for a meal. The traffic is bad, it took me between 1.5H and 5 H to commute from SFO to my Napa office, the 1.5h was on a good day. No wonder the prices in these areas have gone down through the floor.

There is a reason for it.,it all sounds good from afar but not so great when you are there.

The summer heat around Sacremento is pretty awful and you have to have A/C. Public transportation is lousy so you have to have 2 cars and so on and so forth, not my idea of a great retirement place.

Give me Mexico any day with or without its "situation".

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We and several other locals we know are also ex-Californians. Some of us have children and grandchildren in CA and also in other states far from CA. Some of those have moved several times for career opportunities. Moving somewhere to be near your family members may not be practical in a mobile society.

(Whoops, the kids are moving again.....now what?)

Our solution is to persuade (okay, bribe) the family members to visit us here is lovely Ajijic. So far, so good. They have been loving the experience and learning, in the process, what Mexico is like apart from the negative reports on U.S. news.

I wouldn't move back to CA if you gave me a nice house. It's changed drastically, but that's another topic.

Life is good right here.

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"as long as Americans can live in a good climate , nicer communities, with all the amenties, pay a 1% property tax and be near family- there is no incentive to move to a foriegin country. othen than for a short vacation.= but for Californians it won't be Mexcio under the current conditons. "

1% property tax-if you're referring to California,that is pretty much a thing of the past. Communities have found ways around the Prop 13 limit by Mello-Roos assessment bonds,etc. Our kids bought a house in San Diego County six months ago-their total tax comes to 1.5% of their purchase price. Still a bargain compared with Texas,NJ,and other places,but the purchase prices are a lot higher to make up for it.

Their purchase of a house was difficult because of so many buyers in the market. The desirable communities seem to be doing well,it's the dumpy areas where nobody would want to live anyway that are still experiencing problems.

We were Californians before moving to Mexico, "current conditions" as you put it did not deter us. We have several other friends here from both Northern and Southern California living in Guad and Lakeside

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In the past, city house taxes in Mexico have been low because they have been based on a "taxable value" not related to the actual buying price...look out that is all changing, also the new buyers do not want to pay "capital" gains when selling the house based on the spread from the "old" lower price to the new selling price.

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