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DonMac

US Federal Agent Killed Ambush San Louis Potisi

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I just started a thread that addresses that 90 percent figure. Stratfor has looked at this and analyzed it in depth. The thread is "Interesting Read on Borderland Beat this morning."

Just read there HOme Page of Who we are- Stratfor- an OPINION based blog-

Read the Washington Post's year long Investigation on Gun Sales and Crime published in OCt 2010 -

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I did. It's an anti-gun rant from a biased newspaper. Stratfor backs their opinion with hard numbers and doesn't use inflammatory terms like "the gun lobby." The thing is so full of politics I'm surprised the mods haven't deleted it.

You need to diversify your sources, Privado.

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I did. It's an anti-gun rant from a biased newspaper. Stratfor backs their opinion with hard numbers and doesn't use inflammatory terms like "the gun lobby." The thing is so full of politics I'm surprised the mods haven't deleted it.

You need to diversify your sources, Privado.

I would suggest that you need to diversify your sources as well- Conservative Libertarian opinions are more biased than the Washington Post--- they at least back up their sources.

Stafors hard numbers from where ?? NRA is a Pro Gun Lobbiest Organization

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I would suggest that you need to diversify your sources as well- Conservative Libertarian opinions are more biased than the Washington Post--- they at least back up their sources.

Stafors hard numbers from where ?? NRA is a Pro Gun Lobbiest Organization

The numbers came from the US Government.

As we discussed in a
, the 90 percent number was derived from a June 2009 U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report to Congress on U.S. efforts to combat arms trafficking to Mexico (see external link).

According to the GAO report, some 30,000 firearms were seized from criminals by Mexican authorities in 2008. Of these 30,000 firearms, information pertaining to 7,200 of them (24 percent) was submitted to the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) for tracing. Of these 7,200 guns, only about 4,000 could be traced by the ATF, and of these 4,000, some 3,480 (87 percent) were shown to have come from the United States

Read more:

As far as credibility goes -

Here is an interesting review -

http://stevedarden.wordpress.com/2005/03/13/is-stratfor-credible/ that I think says it well:

Stratfor is in the business of selling intelligence to subscribers, which is of interest to those of use who don’t work for the CIA..................

With those caveats I’ve undertaken to search out evidence pro or con on Stratfor’s record since their founding in 1996. It is difficult to extract a one sentence summary from all this, but I’ll attempt this:

  1. Stratfor is not a “silver bullet” – like other sources, the reader still has to do his own thinking, contrasting and correlating.
  2. Stratfor is not a member of the journalism herd – that has value.
  3. When I see a Stratfor bulletin relevant to my issues, I’ll read it carefully and include it as input.
  4. I’ll continue to file their bulletins so I can look back and assess how they are performing.

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Does it matter where they come from any more than where the ammunition comes from? In the end we know they do not come from say Britain which has about 2% of the guns on a per capita basis as found in the US nor any other country which has a much lower crime and murder rate such as Canada, Australia, practically every European country, etc. ;)

One can have a pi$$ing contest arguing where they come from and since majority are not traced simply hot air. In the end we know thousands of innocent people have died and this civil war is waged by terrorists with almost total impunity. Families are destroyed forever, fear in many parts rampant and every day living has come to a standstill. I focus on the harm done and it is beyond what a normal human being can fathom.

Definition of CIVIL WAR

: a war between opposing groups of citizens of the same country

: Armed conflict between a government and another group from within the same country

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Does it matter where they come from any more than where the ammunition comes from? In the end we know they do not come from say Britain which has about 2% of the guns on a per capita basis as found in the US nor any other country which has a much lower crime and murder rate such as Canada, Australia, practically every European country, etc. ;)

One can have a pi$$ing contest arguing where they come from and since majority are not traced simply hot air. In the end we know thousands of innocent people have died and this civil war is waged by terrorists with almost total impunity. Families are destroyed forever, fear in many parts rampant and every day living has come to a standstill. I focus on the harm done and it is beyond what a normal human being can fathom.

It is ugly. However, it's not a civil war and most of those who've died were the bad guys.

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Does it matter where they come from any more than where the ammunition comes from? In the end we know they do not come from say Britain which has about 2% of the guns on a per capita basis as found in the US nor any other country which has a much lower crime and murder rate such as Canada, Australia, practically every European country, etc. ;)

One can have a pi$ing contest arguing where they come from and since majority are not traced simply hot air. In the end we know thousands of innocent people have died and this civil war is waged by terrorists with almost total impunity. Families are destroyed forever, fear in many parts rampant and every day living has come to a standstill. I focus on the harm done and it is beyond what a normal human being can fathom.

I think it does matter where the guns come from - as too many think that shutting down a few gun shops in the US will fix the problem.

As far as beyond what a normal human can fathom - it is incomprehensible to me. 53 killed in Ciudad Juarez in 72 hours a few days ago - last Wednesday 100 people in a Monterey seafood restaurant attacked - men beaten and women raped. This can't go on - but it does.

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It is ugly. However, it's not a civil war and most of those who've died were the bad guys.

I think we now need to drop the "bad guys" part. The 100 or so people that were eating dinner in Monterey last wednesday that were attacked - the men beaten and the women raped and robbed. Do you think this was a narco fiesta? I am guessing not - maybe a narco restaurant owner that someone was mad at - but probably many innocent patrons. And the children being killed? Are they bad guys too?

At this point, I don't think the people that have been murdered by narcos in the last year or so deserve the label "bad guys". Some do - but what about the innocent - and I think there are many. What about the farmer whose life is threatened if he doesn't plant marijuana - he dies if he doesn't, and he lives if he does. Is he a bad guy?

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It is ugly. However, it's not a civil war and most of those who've died were the bad guys.

If armed conflict between a government and another group from within the same country is a definition of civil war, which group in Mexico isn't armed? The cartels or the gob?

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I think we now need to drop the "bad guys" part. . . . At this point, I don't think the people that have been murdered by narcos in the last year or so deserve the label "bad guys". Some do - but what about the innocent - and I think there are many. . .

I think people who make the "bad guys" comments do that because they believe the current situation is not as serious as it really is and are reassuring themselves the violence doesn't present a personal risk to them. But the comment is becoming increasingly less valid and its use doesn't reveal much awareness about how the level and extent of the violence has escalated over the last 18 months. I also think it is more of an ex-pat perspective and not one shared by most Mexicans.

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Very true; the expat perspective is quite different & most don't understand that 'bad guys' may be part of a very 'good' family or associated with a 'good' group of friends who don't know his 'bad' activities. If he is targeted, those 'good' folks may be used to coerce him into being more 'bad', or if he is to be eliminated, they may go down with him as a 'lesson' to others. We might call it 'guilt by association', but here it is simply 'by association' without being guilty. Sort of the 'friend of my enemy is my enemy' approach inherited from the Moorish/Spanish roots of Mexico, right along with the deep sense of family & hospitality.

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Very true; the expat perspective is quite different & most don't understand that 'bad guys' may be part of a very 'good' family or associated with a 'good' group of friends who don't know his 'bad' activities. If he is targeted, those 'good' folks may be used to coerce him into being more 'bad', or if he is to be eliminated, they may go down with him as a 'lesson' to others. We might call it 'guilt by association', but here it is simply 'by association' without being guilty. Sort of the 'friend of my enemy is my enemy' approach inherited from the Moorish/Spanish roots of Mexico, right along with the deep sense of family & hospitality.

What I meant is that the violence is occuring much more frequently in the open under circumstances that present risks to wholly innocent, uninvolved civilians. The numbers of innocent persons being wounded or killed is rising dramatically. Also comments that only "bad guys" are affected by the cartel wars demonstates a lack of awareness about how cartel activities negatively impact and affect the day to day life of ordinary Mexicanos in areas where the cartels are active. That is why I called the belief that this only involves "bad guys" an ex-pat perspective. The cartels affect the lives of all persons who live in the afflicted areas to various degrees.

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What I meant is that the violence is occuring much more frequently in the open under circumstances that present risks to wholly innocent, uninvolved civilians. The numbers of innocent persons being wounded or killed is rising dramatically. Also comments that only "bad guys" are affected by the cartel wars demonstates a lack of awareness about how cartel activities negatively impact and affect the day to day life of ordinary Mexicanos in areas where the cartels are active. That is why I called the belief that this only involves "bad guys" an ex-pat perspective. The cartels affect the lives of all persons who live in the afflicted areas to various degrees.

I certainly appreciate your postings about what is going on in your area and agree with your point of view regarding the affects of the cartels that is beginning to permeate life in general. We know friends who have experienced threats of extortion and or kidnapping, but those things are never reported and only pass to family, friends or close business associates.In your location, you're much more affected by narco gang activities than we currently experience in Guadalajara.

But--- will share a different view from friends and neighbors here- Had dinner with 3 Mexican friends on Saturday night the other couple was from DF both men are directors in med and large businesses. The man from Df is involved in business here in Guad and maintains an apartment here and commutes back and forth, so is familiar with both cities. I was surprised to learn from them that DF is now considered the safest city in Mexico in respect to cartel activity.

Because the wife is alone during the week - she and her 2 sons restrict their night time activities but daily life is normal for she and her parents who live in the same area of DF.He drives every weekend to DF and they spend weekends at their home in Valle de Bravo, 2 hrs outside the city and have never had any problems driving back and forth to either location

Everyone agreed, here in Guad, even though there is escalating gang activity- the consensus among most people including friends and neighbors is that the recent acts of are really still Narco vs Narco and the bombing last week of the Disco supposedly was narco retaliation against the owner of the club. Although they express concern friends and neighbors, are not really worried about it affecting their lives YET.It's their opinion, that the narco issue is really a class issue- poor families, lack of education and jobs, which is not reflective of the middle and upper middle classes in Mexico.

Incidently, we had dinner in a beautiful new restaurant -about 3 months old-and it was still jammed with people when we left at midnight Next door was a pre- club bar for young people who meet for drinks before moving on to another club later-;they were so busy that people were standing on the street waiting to get in when we arrived at 9pm. Obviously,business investment is still happening and people are going out at night.

PS the Bar pre club is located in the old location of the closed East Indian Restaurant owned by Paul ?? in Providencia, that was so popular with expats

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Let's get our heads out of the sand a bit here.... we are living in a country with an ongoing civil war, they admit to 34,000 dead in the last 4 or so years and we all know the Mexican governments tendency to underestimate bad news, especially news that could effect tourism. They are still finding buried bodies that haven't been counted as missing or dead and have been in the ground a while... like the ones found locally here.

If Guadalajara or Chapala starts to look like Juarez, Monterrey or even Morelia I am pretty sure very few of us could stay. Even a worse situation would be ex-pats becoming targets for extortion and kidnapping like we all know has happened to wealthy families from Guadalajara and some local businesses. If things get as bad here as they are in other places in Mexico or approach what's going on in Libya we'll be just like the ex-pats there and looking for safety and a way out.

We aren't living in a combat zone at this point but not watching carefully is just plain foolish.

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Let's get our heads out of the sand a bit here.... we are living in a country with an ongoing civil war, they admit to 34,000 dead in the last 4 or so years and we all know the Mexican governments tendency to underestimate bad news, especially news that could effect tourism. They are still finding buried bodies that haven't been counted as missing or dead and have been in the ground a while... like the ones found locally here.

If Guadalajara or Chapala starts to look like Juarez, Monterrey or even Morelia I am pretty sure very few of us could stay. Even a worse situation would be ex-pats becoming targets for extortion and kidnapping like we all know has happened to wealthy families from Guadalajara and some local businesses. If things get as bad here as they are in other places in Mexico or approach what's going on in Libya we'll be just like the ex-pats there and looking for safety and a way out.

We aren't living in a combat zone at this point but not watching carefully is just plain foolish.

Ah, a voice of reason.

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Borderland Beat reporting this morning that there is an arrest in the case. A Zeta.

They arrested several others along with him. The leader of the group, Julián Zapata Espinoza, was captured by the army in December 2009 and released on bail. Some reports say the group mistook the agent's vehicle for one belonging to a local Gulf cartel leader and that is what precipitated the incident. That is a more plausible explanation than a planned assassination in my opinion.

En 2009 Juez soltó a Asesino de Agente

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If that is the case, the mistaken identity excuse and an accident by cartels, I am too dumb to leave the house.

I simply do not believe the officers didn't attempt to identify themselves. The officers were in a black U.S. government armored SUV with diplomat plates. no rival cartel guy inside driving it. If they had identified themselves it would be reasonable to have those agents reporting that the cartel fellows said "Opps, sorry" and then jumped in their vehicles and got the heck out of there. Especially if the two agents did not have gun power. It doesn't make any sense at all that the cartel hoodlums would bring this upon themselves by shooting unarmed US agents by mistake. Basically I figure both Mexico and the US will be lying to me about this incident. An arrest for this seems unlikely to be the real culprits but is either a very unlucky group of Zeta who just happened to be caught and looked good enough to charge with the crime or he is a Zeta sacrifice to take off the heat.

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Most of the Narcos now days are carrying full auto weapons and grenades, neither of which come from the gun shops in the u. Many "fall off military trucks" and come from south of mexico. That 90% figure is still echoed in the us, but as the above links show they ar skewing the numbers. By far most are not traceable in the us.

The agent's suv had plates that identify them as us and I read where the gunmen made statements that they did so I'm not buying mistaken identity.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=133788866

Last week, some U.S. officials maintained the attack was an intentional ambush of the agents and said the gunmen made comments before they fired indicating they knew who their targets were.

It would not be the first time that a politically sensitive killing in Mexico was identified as a case of mistaken identity.

The Mexican government reports everything as being all narcos involved or an accident. Go to juarez and see the families protesting where their family members have been killed and the government releases statements that they are narcos. It's the easy way out, most narco on narco violence is not investigated. It's amazing, the people there are so nice but for example a guy was killed next door at the denny's while we were there (a week).

You cannot go by any statistics in mexico. People overwhelmingly do not report it. We lived close to toluca several years and even the wife (from there) will tell you crime does not get reported. They have to have the money to pay the cops. I know a woman who's ex husband broke her nose but the cops would not even make a report without money.

That being said we are going back, possibly checking out the chapala area on the way. The crime rate is extremely high in that pueblo. No going out at night, stores close just before dark. Nothing to do with narcos. But hey, I made it through vietnam and also a good period of time in the philippines during marcos/martial law.

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If that is the case, the mistaken identity excuse and an accident by cartels, I am too dumb to leave the house. . . . It doesn't make any sense at all that the cartel hoodlums would bring this upon themselves by shooting unarmed US agents by mistake. . . . . An arrest for this seems unlikely to be the real culprits but is either a very unlucky group of Zeta who just happened to be caught and looked good enough to charge with the crime or he is a Zeta sacrifice to take off the heat.

If the Zeta rank/file were still trained, disciplined ex-military special forces I would agree. But that is far from the profile of the typical Zeta today. The street name of the lead guy they arrested is "Tweety Bird" if you want an example. The fighting over the past four years has taken all but a handful of the original Zeta core out of the picture.

I don't know what happened that day and there are different version of the events that led up to the shooting. What I read was that Tweety Bird and his crew mistook the agents' vehicle for one belonging to a Gulf member and started following them. None of what I read said they thought they were shooting at two Gulf sicarios. In any event you are trying to analyze the incident logically and not from the perspective of an uneducated, twenty-something coked-up street thug. If this was a planned killing of two US law enforcement agents only one of two guys would have made that call and they are far too saavy to do that. Extremly high risk--virtually no gain.

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If the Zeta rank/file were still trained, disciplined ex-military special forces I would agree. But that is far from the profile of the typical Zeta today. The street name of the lead guy they arrested is "Tweety Bird" if you want an example. The fighting over the past four years has taken all but a handful of the original Zeta core out of the picture.

I don't know what happened that day and there are different version of the events that led up to the shooting. What I read was that Tweety Bird and his crew mistook the agents' vehicle for one belonging to a Gulf member and started following them. None of what I read said they thought they were shooting at two Gulf sicarios. In any event you are trying to analyze the incident logically and not from the perspective of an uneducated, twenty-something coked-up street thug. If this was a planned killing of two US law enforcement agents only one of two guys would have made that call and they are far too saavy to do that. Extremly high risk--virtually no gain.

I can't buy into mistaken identity. The thugs may be tweety, but they are street smart. They followed long enough for a good assessment of the vehicle. Half blind, they could not have missed the diplomatic plates.

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I can't buy into mistaken identity. The thugs may be tweety, but they are street smart. They followed long enough for a good assessment of the vehicle. Half blind, they could not have missed the diplomatic plates.

Again, you are applying logic to the situation. Not that it really matters, but I am curious what you know about the Zetas that causes you to believe this was a pre-meditated, planned killing? If you know more about the Zetas than I think you do then I apologize, but this has all the earmarks of a screw-up and very few of an organized coordinated operation. Contrast the Zapata killing with the assassination of Rodolfo Torre Cantu, who would be the governor of Tamaulipas today if a group of Zetas hadn't slaughtered him and several of his aides a week before the election last June. More recently they ambushed and killed the new head of municipal police in Nuevo Laredo,Manuel Farfán, and two of his aides on their way home from work. Both these hits were done by a dedicated group that have military training--guys like Tweety and his crew are not members.

Anyway I am not sure why this is even important. I was simply passing along what was being reported and commented that it sounds plausible to me. But if someone else thinks it was a planned event fine.

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They were saying one of the guys they were looking for is a military corporal that defected to the zetas.

A lot of them have goofy names, like "la barbie" that was captured living in the marquesa at toluca. Don't let those names make you think they are playing around.

"El piolin" doesn't directly translate to "tweety bird". "Piolin" is just what tweety is called in spanish speaking countries. Kind of like woody woodpecker is woody el pajaro loco, not necesarily the same meaning. There's also a popular dj in mex called piolin.

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and so why would the agents have rolled down their bullet proof window? Guess we will never know -

and why is the US going on a drug cleanup this week? So last week it was okay for the drug dealers to do business in the US - but not this week? Wow!!

http://hosted2.ap.or...400deb98e516a37

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal, state and local authorities conducted a massive sweep Thursday of suspected Mexican drug cartel members in the United States in a widespread domestic response to the killing of a U.S. agent in Mexico last week.

"We are taking a stand and we are sending a message back to the cartels that we will not tolerate the murder of a U.S. agent, or any U.S. official," said Carl Pike, assistant special agent in charge of the Drug Enforcement Administration's special operations division.

Pike said the nationwide roundup, which began Wednesday and was expected to continue into Friday, is targeting suspected criminals with ties to any Mexican drug cartel to try to disrupt drug trafficking operations in the United States.

By Thursday morning, agents in areas including Atlanta, St. Louis, Denver, Detroit, San Antonio, San Diego, Chicago and New Jersey had seized more than $4.5 million in cash and nearly 20 guns, arrested more than 100 people and confiscated about 23 pounds of methamphetamine, 107 kilos of cocaine, 5 pounds of heroin and 300 pounds of marijuana at more than 150 different locations.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent Jaime Zapata was killed, and fellow ICE agent Victor Avila was wounded in Mexico on Feb. 15 when the Chevy Suburban they were in was run off the road by at least two vehicles loaded with armed men. Authorities have said the agents, who were driving in a fortified sport utility vehicle with diplomatic license plates, identified themselves as U.S. diplomats in the moments before the shooting.

Mexican authorities have arrested one person in connection with the brazen attack, which is believed to be the work of members of Mexico's Zetas gang. Former Mexican special forces soldiers are among its members.

"We are basically going out to disrupt narcotics distribution here in the United States no matter what cartel their allegiance is to," Pike said. "It would be futile to send a message back to one cartel when they all are just as guilty."

.............

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They were saying one of the guys they were looking for is a military corporal that defected to the zetas.

A lot of them have goofy names, like "la barbie" that was captured living in the marquesa at toluca. Don't let those names make you think they are playing around.

"El piolin" doesn't directly translate to "tweety bird". "Piolin" is just what tweety is called in spanish speaking countries. Kind of like woody woodpecker is woody el pajaro loco, not necesarily the same meaning. There's also a popular dj in mex called piolin.

It may not directly translate to "tweety bird" but Piolin is what the popular cartoon character is called in Mexico. The DJ called Piolin has a very popular morning radio show broadcast out of a Los Angeles FM station. The former corporal is Jesús Enrique Rejón Aguilar who is in the upper echelon of Zeta leaders. Piolin is apparently a street level sicario in the organization based out of SLP.

I don't think this was a planned operation that specifically targeted the two US agents, nor do I think the Zeta group thought they had two Gulf sicarios when they started shooting. In my opinion it started as a spontaneous incident and escalated when the agents resisted. But maybe I'm just trying to rationalize because I live and drive in an area the Zetas control and don't want to think that they are now specifically targeting Americans.

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