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mexico bonds may be added to citibank goeernemnt bond index


traderspoc

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wow january my 2029 20 year bond was selling at 99.734734 yield 8.55 at a discount in beggining of january, now FEB 18TH 2010 it is up with premium in the last week of 104.499239 yield 8.16

mexican bonds are hot with the citibank adding to world government bond fund

8 1/2 % interest a year and a capital gain of 3 1/2 % in last two weeks. sure beat% united states.

I figured its will get stronger but didnt figure to 3 1/2 % in one month. what a nice surprise, market news predicting yield of 7.95% some time this year.

still room for more capital gain.

when you pay a premium you get less yield example 8.16

when you buy at discount you get a higher yield example 8.55

to track bond, look at right column bono 20 2029 of web page link below

0.54 %

Tasas

TIIE(28) 4.9700 0.0201

Cetes 28 4.49 0.0000

Cetes 182 4.71 -0.0200

UDI 4.399913 0.001311

Bono 10-2018 7.57 0.0150

Bono 20-2029 8.16 -0.0120

T-Note10 3.8090 2.0359 %

Libor 3 Mes 0.2512 0.2474 %

changes every ten minutes

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/ElFinanciero/Portal/cfpages/contentmgr.cfm?fuente=nav&docId=232&docTipo=2

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  • 2 weeks later...

do not get confused by other posters, bonds are should be kept long term, whether they are up or down, they still pay 8 1/2%.

they can be sold within 24 hours at current market rate.

The goal is to hold them to maturity, or to when they get called, you get 8 1/2% during all that time, and never lose money.

the interest is paid in pesos every six months, ( the currency you use to live on, with no exchange rate fees.

a win win situation.

20 years bonds at 104.9475690,, Bono 20-2029 8.16 0.0030 8 1/2 PER CENT BOND

seems to be holding around here now.

bought the bonds when exchange rate was 13.55 recieved 13.3 on exchange rate

rate today 12.707

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/ElFinanciero/Portal/cfpages/contentmgr.cfm?fuente=nav&docId=232&docTipo=2

Dólar Spot 12.7070 0.0000

Euro 17.5123 0.0000

Bolsas

IPC 32,202.00 -0.47 %

DJI 10,444.14 0.46 %

NASDAQ 2,292.31 0.51 %

Bovespa 67,814.70 0.26 %

Merval 2,284.26 -0.31 %

IBEX 10,745.30 0.76 %

Nikkei 10,335.07 1.87 %

Hang Seng 20,575.78 -1.44 %

Tasas

TIIE(28) 4.9300 -0.0050

Cetes 28 4.49 0.0000

Cetes 182 4.76 0.0000

UDI 4.413429 0.000619

Bono 10-2018 7.67 0.0020

Bono 20-2029 8.16 0.0030

T-Note10 3.6080 -0.4690 %

Libor 3 Mes 0.2522 0.0992 %

Indicadores

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  • 5 weeks later...

wow january my 2029 20 year bond was selling at 99.734734 yield 8.55 at a discount in beggining of january, now FEB 18TH 2010 it is up with premium in the last week of 104.499239 yield 8.16

mexican bonds are hot with the citibank adding to world government bond fund

8 1/2 % interest a year and a capital gain of 3 1/2 % in last two weeks. sure beat% united states.

I figured its will get stronger but didnt figure to 3 1/2 % in one month. what a nice surprise, market news predicting yield of 7.95% some time this year.

still room for more capital gain.

when you pay a premium you get less yield example 8.16

when you buy at discount you get a higher yield example 8.55

to track bond, look at right column bono 20 2029 of web page link below

0.54 %

Tasas

TIIE(28) 4.9700 0.0201

Cetes 28 4.49 0.0000

Cetes 182 4.71 -0.0200

UDI 4.399913 0.001311

Bono 10-2018 7.57 0.0150

Bono 20-2029 8.16 -0.0120

T-Note10 3.8090 2.0359 %

Libor 3 Mes 0.2512 0.2474 %

changes every ten minutes,

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/ElFinanciero/Portal/cfpages/contentmgr.cfm?fuente=nav&docId=232&docTipo=

peso up 6.2 % gain against american dollar, thats if you bought a 2019 mexico peso bond you would be up 6.2% gain on currency. 8.1/2 % 1/2 paid first half of the year, 4.25 interest

4% capital gain on bond, total for all three about 14 1/2 % gain in 2010, in sixth months, on a very safe investment that you could sell in 24 hours.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-31/mexico-s-peso-headed-to-biggest-advance-among-major-currencies.html

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peso up 6.2 % gain against american dollar, thats if you bought a 2019 mexico peso bond you would be up 6.2% gain on currency. 8.1/2 % 1/2 paid first half of the year, 4.25 interest

4% capital gain on bond, total for all three about 14 1/2 % gain in 2010, in sixth months, on a very safe investment that you could sell in 24 hours.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-31/mexico-s-peso-headed-to-biggest-advance-among-major-currencies.html

You come across as if you are a bond trader????

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According to this Bloomberg article, Mexican bonds were "routed" yesterday when Mexico issued $1 billion of bonds. Yet another example of anonymous "advisors" on this forum and elsewhere on the internet, doling out free advice to set up the sucker investor to suit the advisor's own purposes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aZtX2RIQYe_U

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According to this Bloomberg article, Mexican bonds were "routed" yesterday when Mexico issued $1 billion of bonds. Yet another example of anonymous "advisors" on this forum and elsewhere on the internet, doling out free advice to set up the sucker investor to suit the advisor's own purposes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aZtX2RIQYe_U

thanks the bloomberg article was good news, mexico bonds oversubscribed

"Todays bond sale was oversubscribed 2.2 times, Mexicos Finance Ministry said in a statement."

I not bond trader , but happened to make a smart investment in NOV 2009 in 2029 8 1/2 mexico bond, against a lot of advice not to do it.

but the fundamentals where there, and I took the risk, and to my surprise its worked out , better than expected, and covered the cost of the transaction sooner than expected.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Looks like Greece is going to default. If they do,there will be a rush for the exits on all emerging market bonds,the dollar will strengthen and US interest rates will fall more. Mexican bonds will tank just like the others,and the peso will weaken as investors pull their money out.

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Looks like Greece is going to default. If they do,there will be a rush for the exits on all emerging market bonds,the dollar will strengthen and US interest rates will fall more. Mexican bonds will tank just like the others,and the peso will weaken as investors pull their money out.

Mexico bonds have highest gain this week, as investors and pension funds buy them.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-23/mexico-s-bonds-headed-to-weekly-gain-on-investors-price-drop.html

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I listened in on a "Webinar" last week presented by USAA. They showed a 4 quadrant chart which had Mexico and many of the emerging markets in the "safest" quadrant (due to low risk/debt). Greece was in the higher risk area, and they said that Greece was going to bring down the Euro because they are linked (Greece being one of the Euro countries). The "good" economies will have to support the "bad". They still favor the "safer" emerging market countries (including Mexico) but do warn that they are by definition somewhat more volatile. But Mexico is NOT in the same group as Greece.

I am not by any means an expert here, just reporting what we were told in the Webinar.

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I listened in on a "Webinar" last week presented by USAA. They showed a 4 quadrant chart which had Mexico and many of the emerging markets in the "safest" quadrant (due to low risk/debt). Greece was in the higher risk area, and they said that Greece was going to bring down the Euro because they are linked (Greece being one of the Euro countries). The "good" economies will have to support the "bad". They still favor the "safer" emerging market countries (including Mexico) but do warn that they are by definition somewhat more volatile. But Mexico is NOT in the same group as Greece.

I am not by any means an expert here, just reporting what we were told in the Webinar.

[/quot

When professional bond traders exit one emerging market they tend to exit them all. Greece may be a problem today,but a trader will be concerned that other traders will sell out of all emerging markets. So they sell themselves and pretty soon the run is on. When you see what happened last time Mexico had a problem, or when Russia had its problems in 1997, all emerging bond markets were hit by selling even though not all countries weren directly involved in the problems of those two countries.

The way to make money investing is to buy low and sell high. The op is recommending to buy high and hope to sell higher. It could work,but the downside risk is much greater than it was.

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Looks like the Peso dropped two cents today, not a big movement. I doubt it will take the markets long to realize that Mexico is much sounder financially than Portugal or Greece.

Or the U.S. for that matter. :)

It's not a question of who is sounder than someone else. It's all about market volatility and allocation of risk.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The peso did not move relative to other currencies but rather the US$ was up as people ran from Euros based on what is happening with Greece. Next after Greece will be Portugal, Spain, Italy. Even England has some major belt-tightening coming after this election. Meanwhile, Germany will start hesitating in loaning money as these countries teeter on the brink of bankruptcy and are forced to pay the piper. In Greece, for example, retirement occur between 52 and 55, 20% of population pays taxes and workers get 14 months pay every year. They have thousands of "committees which achieve nothing and members get paid plus corruption is huge. The other southern European countries I noted are are almost equal in their greed.

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  • 3 weeks later...

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