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snowyco

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snowyco last won the day on August 12 2016

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  1. REMEMBER the topic ... and the original question. "Canbuck ... Hits 15 MP today. What's going on? " I simply report what experts at the Wall Street Journal ... and Bloomberg have been reporting ... that describe why the "Canbuck ... hit $15 MXN." Pappy, Why make up hysterical emotional claims "The sky is falling"... when faced with 6 recent months of WSJ & Bloomber financial reports ? .... Why imagine "the sky is falling" stuff that does not exist ? Why make nasty false personal attacks about me supposedly selling short? When several quarters of GDPs fall ... It's just financial news ... When Manufacturing Outputs fall for 6 months ... It's just financial news ...` When short term T-bill rates fall for 6 months ... reversing the Yield curve ... It's just financial news ...` Fortunately ... the sky in my world .... is not falling.
  2. Not shorting anything... What is the extent of your short positions? What is the extent of your long positions? What's the ratio of your bond holdings versus equities (stocks)?
  3. It's true that the MXN peso got weaker versus the CAD, but it's because the MXN peso has gotten weaker vs the USD (hitting almost $20:1), while the CAD has remained steady vs the USD.. The Euro EU has sagged to $1.11 USD ... and the Pound has slid to $1.22 USD ... and US 2yr T-Bill rates have gradually crashed from 3% earlier this past year... down to a staggeringly low 1.5% this week => a HUGE indicator of looming recession. Why? ... The perception is that the world is sliding into recession, due to the trade wars, as even Germany;s (normally robust) economy has slid to recession numbers ... forcing the German banks to start to raise interest rates for the first time in 10 years .... and the US Fed just raised interest rates the first time in 10 years ... and ... The Chinese are sliding so bad, they just had to default on their first big $$ payment on their massive "Belt and Road" system (stranding Kazakhstan's plans) ... Why? .. The world's best indicaior of an impending US recession just solidly went NEGATIVE - as the US Treasury Bond "Yield Curve" flipped, as BIG MONEY$$ people around the globe are rushing to buy 1 yr & 2 yr US Treasury notes ... and scorning the 10 yr. Treasury notes - because they now see SERIOUS WEAKNESS on the 10 yr scale for the US economy. ... PLUS ... It was announced this week that US manufacturing output has been sliding-falling for the past FULL 4 Quarters ... as the top investors (smart money and big money) around the world are convinced that the USA economy is stumbling, and "very likely" to fall into recession ... So, huge international money is rushing to the perceived safety of short term US Treasury notes... DRIVING THEM DOWN by 50% ...where they were up at 3% ... They are now down at a SHOCKING 1.5% ... So ... When massive money is buying short term US T-bills at a pitiful 1.5% return ... it says that even the BIGGEST $$ PLAYERS are very very worried .... as they cash out of other investments - and accept crummy 1.5% returns from the US govt - because they think ... "At least the US Govt will pay, when other things crash." FINALLY The last big factor in the last 2 weeks of a sliding-weakening MXN Peso ... is that the TRADE WARS just heated up, instead of being negotiated. Both China & USA announcing BIG NEW tariffs these coming months - expanding the economic trade wars. ... And Mexico is caught in the middle... NOTE: NONE of this is political ... It's all just straight-up economic news ... simple reporting of public financial news ... as described by Bloomberg. Why does all this bad economic news for the USA mean a weaker MXN Peso? 2 factors: 1. Mexico is considered the tail of the very big US dog. ... Mexico's economic fate is WAGGED by the massive US economy., because USA & Mexico are the world's 2-biggest & best trading partners. When USA does well, then Mexico thrives ... When USA slides, Mexico is drug down even ~worse~ ... being wagged by the USA sliding down. (especially with this week's USA's & China's BIG expansions of the nasty trade war ) and 2. The Mexican peso is unique ... The MXN Peso is the ONLY "Developing Nation" currency in the world that's traded world-wide ... traded in large amounts ... and traded 7 days a week. ... That means (too often) BIG MONEY speculators use the MXN peso as the SURROGATE for ALL "Developing Nation" economies. When the biggest players: USA, China, Japan, SK, Gr. Britain AND the Europe all start sliding down at the same time - all threatening to go into simultaneous recession ... then the Developing Nations economies (Argentina, Brazil, India, Russia and all of Africa) generally GET TRASHED. ... Because there's no decent way to trade in the other Developing Nation's currencies: (Indian Rupees, Argentine Sols, Russian Rubles or Brazilian Reales) ... INSTEAD ... the Big Money speculators use the MXN Peso as their surrogate for betting that THE WHOLE DEVELOPING WORLD is going to suffer economically ... This means that ... Yes, Mexico's economy is suffering .... but NO WHERE NEAR as much as the currency traders (driven by Big Money speculators) are bashing the MXN Peso. So ... It's been a nasty 2 weeks of news for the worlds economies ... and Mexico is getting punished as the "fellow sharing a bed with the elephant"... Does that all make sense? **This is NOT a political post ... It''s the news reports of economic data & what the Wall Street Journal & Bloomberg economic experts have been saying the past months, intensifying with the especially bad economic news out of the USA & Germany (& China) last week & this week.
  4. As long as your friend is an adult, and has a valid drivers license, is not drunk, they can drive any Mexican plated car. No letters needed ... Like for any other driver, make sure they know where to find the proof of registration & proof of insurance. The only restrictions are on who can drive a foreign-plated car.
  5. . Since Aduana & Banjercito cannot control the date that you enter, they want you to document proof of insurance before they approve the TIP.
  6. Two separate Mexican labor attorneys have advised us that one distinction between independent contractors efforts (projects?) versus household 'employees' is whether you direct them in their efforts. Notice that mozos (guys who do small painting jobs, small plumbing repairs, etc) ARE owed Aguinaldos & vacation pay for those extra projects. When we bring in a plumber or electrician, we generally discuss our overall need or problem or desire, and then allow that professional to do their job~project. In contrast, with a mozo, muchacha or other semi-regular employee (like a cleaning worman), we give instructions on how we want the job done. The key is in whether we direct them, (giving instructions etc) or whether they are obviously acting as a professional welder, professional painter, professional electrician/plumber. The professionals who act without direction are contractors. @cedros It sounds like you are using your part-time employee as a mozo ... where you give him some direction. This would mean you owe them both Aguinaldo & vacation pay. Since both Vacation pay (and paid time off) and Aguinaldo payments are quite small, likely less than $50 US dollars combined. The way to determine both Aguinaldo & Vacation Payments is straignt-forward, if you ignore Rollybrook's 8 yr old overly-simplified advice. Instead, calculate the employees 'Daily Rate', based on their annual income. The annual 'Daily Rate' for these irregularly scheduled - irregularly paid employees (like a mozo) is straightforward: Sum their total Annual Pay, and divide that figure by 365 days = Daily Rate. Aguinaldo Payment = 15 days x Daily Rate Vacation Pay (including paid time off) = # days Vacation Pay owed x Daily Rate Annual Vacation Days Owed 1st year – 6 days salary 2 years – 8 days 3 years – 10 days 4 years – 12 days 5 to 9 years – 14 days 10 to 14 years – 16 days 15 to 19 years – 18 days 20 to 24 years – 20 days 25 to 29 years – 22 days 30 to 34 years – 24 days 35 to 39 years – 26 days Happy Holidays ! from: https://yucalandia.com/2017/11/21/8174/
  7. Canadian govt. officials commented yesterday that "... Relations between Canada and the USA are at their worst point ever. ..." . Pressure mounts on the White House, as NPR reports this morning: "... In future trade disputes between the USA & Canada, Trump is insisting that he be allowed to unilaterally punish Canada, while the Canadians say future trade disputes should go to arbitration. ..." " ... A number of Republican Congressmen & Senators are saying ~ They will not vote for a trade deal with Mexico, unless Canada is part of the deal ~ because the lost Canadian trade would hurt their State economies. ... " It becomes nearly impossible for the USA to pass a "trade agreement", when even Republican legislators refuse to vote for their own party's agreement,
  8. Trade talks with Canada will restart next week as Trump seeks a deal in 90 days The United States and Canada will restart trade talks next week after going past the Trump administration's Friday deadline without reaching a new trade agreement. The U.S. and Mexico struck a deal earlier in the week. The Trump administration notified Congress that it wants to sign a trade agreement with Mexico, and potentially Canada, in 90 days. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/31/trade-talks-with-canada-will-restart-next-week-as-trump-seeks-a-deal-in-90-days.html
  9. . They must continue to buy CDN goods, because the USA clearly does not have everything it needs ... USA-nians need Canadian steel, lumber, aluminum, wheat and even $40 billion a year of Canadian oil and maple syrup. ;)
  10. Per NPR ... Both Canada's top NAFTA official and the Canadian Foreign Minister sounded positive, somewhat optimistic notes late yesterday and this morning about their expectations that the they could work out acceptable changes to NAFTA - and that they saw positive things in the current proposed terms & changes worked out between Mexico and the USA. Even Trudeau took a balanced approach, saying that he would sign a deal if it was fair, but that he would not sign if "bad" ... Trudeau drew his own line in the sand, saying:: "No NAFTA deal ... is better than a bad NAFTA deal." ... So, the top Canadians in charge of negotiating & approving the proposed changes to NAFTA, are all on the same page - and it is not the "Bite me" proposed above. We wish all 3 parties ~Good Luck~ in crafting a deal that benefits the people of North America.
  11. Not so much, especially by the Canadians who make those decisions. On NPR, PBS and other reliable sources, Canadian experts have been saying yesterday & today, that they find a lot of very attractive terms & conditions in the proposed changes to re-negotiate (update) NAFTA. A member of Canada's official Canadian NAFTA Advisory Council explained (on NPR) that Canadians are frustrated that Trump does not treat Canada as a good neighbor, but the Canadian NAFTA Advisory Council members also say that Trump is rude & bullying with Australia, Gr. Britain, Germany & Europe on trade issues. Consequently, Canadian representatives are saying that Canadians are resigning themselves to saying that Trump is a bully and a boor with other nations on trade issues, so, Canadians realize that they are being treated the same as other allies. The Canadian NAFTA Advisory Council members are also saying that they must respect Trump's threats to put special tariffs on Canadian autos, just as he did with steel & aluminum. In summary, important Canadians are saying that the proposed updates to NAFTA are beneficial to Canada, that soft-wood disputes will contintue to be an unresolved problem "as they have been for over 100 years", and that Canada is likely going to approve the proposed updates to NAFTA. ?? https://www.npr.org/2018/08/29/643062056/canadian-officials-say-the-unwinding-of-nafta-is-not-their-biggest-trade-concern
  12. MORE DETAILS: ~ The Guacamole Clause .... Trump capitulated on his prior demands for trade barriers to block seasonal fruit and vegetables from Mexico. ... Mexican avocados will continue to flow !! ~ North American content in cars is increased from 62% to 75%. (This cuts out lots of Chinese parts, and likely substitutes more Mexican parts.) ~ More North American steel, aluminum & glass must be used in NAFTA manufactured cars. ~ 40% - 45% of a "vehicle's value" must be made in "high wage areas" by auto workers manufacturing cars paid at least $16 USD per hour - plus a nebulously~mysteriously described clause included to supposedly force increased US auto manufacturing. ~ Mexico's trade negotiator says Mexico is ready to comply with these new terms & changes. ~ The Chapter 19 arbitration system has been heavily "scaled back" ... now covering only "expropriation, favoritism for local firms and state-dominated sectors such as oil power and infrastructure." ~ New rules on intellectual property, digital information, etc are added, to cover changes arising from the digital age, that did not exist when NAFTYA was first negotiated. ~ North American content in other manufactured goods must also be increased. (more specifics to be released in the future) From NPR reports and https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/.../arti.../65571262.cms
  13. Per Bloomberg ... Lighthizer, the White House's top trade negotiator, has just leaked some unofficial details on the "US-Mexico Understanding to make a Trade Agreement" ~ 16 yr Trade Agreement(s) with 6 year reviews: The USA has abandoned their previous demands for a "5-yr Sunset Clause". Instead, Lighthizer says the new "Trade Agreement" is proposed to last for 16 years ... Further, every 6 years there would be a "tri-lateral review" of the "Trade Agreement", and if the results of "tri-lateral review" are positive, then the "Trade Agreement" would be re-authorized for another 16 years. ~ Regardless of Trump's announcement of a "US Mexico Trade Agreement", instead, Lighthizer (WH's top negotiator) acknowledges that there is no agreement without Canada's approval, and => the official US policy now is that they "hope Canada will agree to" the understandings that Mexico has worked out with the White House.
  14. Per Bloomberg ... Lighthizer, the White House's top trade negotiator, has just leaked some unofficial details on the "US-Mexico Understanding to make a Trade Agreement" ~ 16 yr Trade Agreement(s) with 6 year reviews: The USA has abandoned their previous demands for a "5-yr Sunset Clause". Instead, Lighthizer says the new "Trade Agreement" is proposed to last for 16 years ... Further, every 6 years there would be a "tri-lateral review" of the "Trade Agreement", and if the results of "tri-lateral review" are positive, then the "Trade Agreement" would be re-authorized for another 16 years. ~ Regardless of Trump's announcement of a "US Mexico Trade Agreement", instead, Lighthizer (WH's top negotiator) acknowledges that there is no agreement without Canada's approval, and => the official US policy now is that they "hope Canada will agree to" the understandings that Mexico has worked out with the White House.
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