36 replies to this topic

[econ man]

The hurricane hunting AF plane is still gathering data, but the forecast now shows Bud reaching the coast at Hurricane force level (@#@%!) and is now forecast to be heading northeast and north, weakening of course as it crosses the mountains. Mexico has issued a coastal hurricane warning from Manzanillo south to Cabo Corrientes. Gravy, you now can take a short break in the rain dance!

Cabo Corrientes is north of Manzanillo....it's near PV.

[jaykay]

Don' t listen to them Gravy. Keep dancing until you get us some water.

[lakeheron]

I just received this from the US consulate:


U.S. CONSULATE GENERAL GUADALAJAR​A - EMERGENCY MESSAGE TO U.S. CITIZENS: Hurricane "BUD"


5:24 PM (7 minutes ago)


United States Consulate General Guadalajara
PLEASE CIRCULATE THIS IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT TO
AS MANY AMERICAN CITIZENS AS POSSIBLE
Emergency Message to U.S. Citizens:
Hurricane Bud
Date: May 24, 2012
BEGIN TEXT.

This emergency message is being issued to alert U.S. citizens residing and traveling in Mexico that the National Hurricane Center (NHC, www.nhc.noaa.gov) forecasts Hurricane Bud, currently a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, is approaching Mexico’s Pacific coast. The NHC has issued a hurricane warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo northwest to Cabo Corrientes and a tropical storm warning from Cabo Corrientes north to San Blas.
The National Hurricane Center reports that Hurricane Bud is moving in from the Pacific Ocean and is expected to approach Mexico’s coast on the afternoon of Friday, May 25, most likely affecting the coasts of Jalisco and Colima and including the resort areas of Puerto Vallarta/Ribera Nayarit and Manzanillo. As of Thursday afternoon, maximum sustained winds are near 110 MPH with higher gusts. More information about Hurricane Bud from the NHC can be found at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac. Proteccion Civil, the Mexican agency in charge of emergency preparedness, is also monitoring the storm and more information can be found at their websites: http://proteccionciv...b.mx/index.html (Jalisco), http://www.proteccio...onCivil/Colima1 (Colima), and http://www.proteccio...nCivil/Nayarit2 (Nayarit).
The U.S. Consulate General will continue to monitor Hurricane Bud and will issue updated messages as necessary. U.S. citizens are urged to locate shelter, monitor media reports, and follow all official instructions from local authorities. U.S. citizens should carry their travel documents at all times (i.e. U.S. passport, birth certificate, picture ID’s, etc.) or secure them in safe, waterproof locations. We also suggest that U.S. citizens contact friends and family in the United States with updates about their whereabouts.
Information on hurricanes and storm preparedness may be found on our “Hurricane Season-Know Before You Go” webpage, and on the “Natural Disasters” page of the Bureau of Consular Affairs website. Updated information on travel in Mexico may be obtained from the Department of State by calling 1-888-407-4747 within the United States and Canada, or from overseas, 1-202-501-4444. These numbers are available from 8:00 am to 8:00 p.m., Eastern Time, Monday through Friday (except U.S. federal holidays).
Please continue to monitor the Consulate General’s website (http://guadalajara.usconsulate.gov) for updated information. Please consult the Country Specific Information for Mexico, available on the Bureau of Consular Affairs website.
The U.S. Consular Agency in Puerto Vallarta is located at Paseo de los Cocoteros #85; Sur Paradise Plaza, Interior Local L-7, Nuevo Vallarta, Nayarit, C.P. 63732. The U.S. Consular Agency in Puerto Vallarta’s telephone numbers are 011 52 322 222 0069 & 011 52 322 223 3301; the fax number is 011 52 322 223 0074. For after-hours emergencies, please call 011 52 33 3268 2145.

The U.S. Consulate General in Guadalajara is located at 175 Progreso Street, Col. Americana, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico. The U.S. Consulate General in Guadalajara’s telephone number is 011 52 33 3268 2100; the fax number is 011 52 33 3825 1951. For after-hours emergencies, please call 011 52 33 3268 2145.
END OF TEXT.


U.S. Consulate General Guadalajara
175 Progreso Street; Col. Americana
Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
011 52 33 3268 2100
http://guadalajara.usconsulate.gov/
The Consulate office hours are Monday through Friday
from 08:00 a.m. to 04:30 p.m. (except for Mexican and U.S. holidays

[Mad_Max]

Mad Max
Are you going mad. All this abbreviations means diddly to me. What in general are you trying to say.

They are not my abbreviations - so I am not trying to say anything. If you can't understand the information - which was copied from the National Hurricane Website (NOAA) - perhaps just looking at the map will help. The map is also dynamic, not static - so when NOAA updates the map, the map on this thread references that map, so it too will change.

So when you look at the days on the Map - you will see Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon etc - and it shows Bud doing a tight uturn. If you read the NOAA discussion (above the map in the post) - you should be able to interpret that they have several models predicting Buds progress. Some models says Bud will continue north (which are the projections of the HWRF AND GFDL models) and the one they have the most confidence in is the ECMWF model - which is the one shown in the picture.

As for the definition of modeling, a simplistic explanation is they put a bunch of data together - and come up with a possible path. NOAA uses multiple models as a perfect model does not exist - and then may or may not average them out when forecasting hurricane paths etc.

[Ajijic_hiker]

The Consulate's message reminds me of 'duck and cover'.....

[camillenparadise]

Praying for rain but wind, not so much, on the Nayarit coast......

[gravy]

Rain Rain, Please Come Our Way!!! Good title for a song and rain dance---

Oh no...don't encourage Gravy to take his clothes off.

Don' t listen to them Gravy. Keep dancing until you get us some water.

The rain today is the residual effect of lasts week's dance ....working with Bud and Tailoc for the 27 th so I can win the poll
1/2 inch right ? ........ boom chacka chacka.... boom chacka chacka ..... give us some rain , Bud and Tailoca

[Tom L]

'The Hurricane Center said the storm would likely decline to tropical storm-force as it hit land, move a little inland and then make a U-turn and head back out into the Pacific'

- but it looks like we could still get a lot of rain.

http://news.yahoo.co...-144444952.html

[Stan]

2" of rain here at my house in Manzanillo since 7am. I have seen a gust to 38 and at 1pm the airport reports winds of 41 with gusts to 55. Haven't been out yet, but no trees down that I can see from the house.

[Griffin]

If Bud peters out it looks like more moisture is behind it and coming this way:

http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/hpwv.html

[PV Kids]

Current conditions in Puerto Vallarta, Old Town: Overcast here at our place, humid, no breeze to speak of and temperature 82F. Latest update shows weakening to Cat. 1 but they are still predicting heavy rain here tonight and tomorrow. A ver que pasa. Light rain last evening but seemed unrelated to Bud and was our first precip of the season.

[Studio del Sol]

Whatever rain dance Gravy was doing has brought hail and snow to the low Sierra Nevada in No CA.. He can back off, now.

[N2Futur]

[lakeheron]

The Consulate's message reminds me of 'duck and cover'.....

Or maybe "ducks and cover?"

[gravy]

Whatever rain dance Gravy was doing has brought hail and snow to the low Sierra Nevada in No CA.. He can back off, now.

Hey guys .....Tialoc has informed me that to curb my ego , he has limited my powers to a 100 mile radius .....so if Texas needs rain , you have to anti up the air fair ....first class ....and beers

[tonys]

Hey guys .....Tialoc has informed me that to curb my ego , he has limited my powers to a 100 mile radius .....so if Texas needs rain , you have to anti up the air fair ....first class ....and beers

Gravy, you have been dancing to the wrong god. Tlaloc is is the Aztec rain god.

[giltner68]

Well, a non-eventos, but good practice. We already have 10% of our annual average so we're on the right track.