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Weather this winter


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#1 tomgates

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Posted 08 September 2011 - 10:37 AM

This is from NOAA:

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with La Niña are expected to remain weak during the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall, and to generally strengthen during the late fall and winter. During September-November 2011, there is evidence that La Niña favors an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the mid-section of the country, and an increased chance of above-average precipitation across the Pacific Northwest (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on 18 August 2011).

(me)So this would indicate a more normal weather Lakeside this winter.

Here is the link:

http://www.cpc.ncep....ory/index.shtml
Tom

#2 Mainecoons

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Posted 08 September 2011 - 01:39 PM

Anyone seen an explanation as to why we've had such a poor rainy season this year?

Possibly connected to the complete miss on tropical activity predictions? Much less that expected. That's two years in a row for below average tropical storms.

#3 cedros

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Posted 08 September 2011 - 02:31 PM

Or an explanation why it is so cold right now. It was 10C (50F) at the bottom of my property in San Juan Cosala this morning. Maybe a cold east wind from the high mountains? It has been too rough on the lake the last 4 days to take the boat out.

#4 camillenparadise

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Posted 08 September 2011 - 03:33 PM

And yet once again the Nayarit coast is receiving too MUCH rain! I got back here to find my entire 1 km road gone, nothing but huge boulders and four foot deep ruts. And night before last it was still 92F at ten pm......
Mother Earth bats last.

#5 tomgates

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Posted 08 September 2011 - 03:42 PM

Pacific hurricanes are a factor on the coast, not Lakeside so much.
Tom

#6 exHawaiian

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Posted 09 September 2011 - 12:27 PM

We do get wisps of the stormy edges of Pacific hurricanes which make it to the area of Bay of Banderas, which can cause us considerable windy and rainy fallout.

#7 exHawaiian

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Posted 09 September 2011 - 12:29 PM

We do get wisps of the stormy edges of Pacific hurricanes which make it to the area of Bay of Banderas. This can cause us considerable windy and rainy fallout.

#8 Alex

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Posted 09 September 2011 - 03:26 PM

Anyone seen an explanation as to why we've had such a poor rainy season this year?


Last year we got an El Nino, which brought 42 inches of rain to Lakeside. This compares to an "average" total of 33 inches. (I'm using stats from the private weather station in Riberas.) An El Nino is usually followed by a La Nina the following year. A La Nina climate usually brings less than normal rainfall. Perhaps this is an explanation for why we seem to be getting less rainfall this year at Lakeside. As the planet continues to heat up, these established weather patterns (i.e., El Nino/La Nina) are becoming more erratic and less predictable.

#9 Mainecoons

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Posted 09 September 2011 - 06:13 PM

I think that was two years ago you're referring to. Last year just made the average.

Supposedly, the la nina had abated. But it sure looks like the effects stuck around.

#10 tomgates

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Posted 09 September 2011 - 07:48 PM

If you read my original post, NOAA is saying that a La Nina will become stronger this fall/winter.
Tom




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